NFL Betting - Where Are The Sharps Looking In Week 12

Jason Lake

Tuesday, November 22, 2016 2:39 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 22, 2016 2:39 PM UTC

It's time to get off the Green Bay Packers bandwagon and put the Philadelphia Eagles in your NFL picks. That's where the early action is for Monday night's matchup.


Record: 19-14-1 ATS, 4-8 Totals

Are the Green Bay Packers (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) really that bad? Well, yes. They've lost four straight games at 3-1 ATS, gutted by a series of injuries on both sides of the ball. The bad times kept rolling last week, as Green Bay (–3 away) got thumped 42-24 by Washington; CB Demetri Goodson suffered a horrific knee injury, the kind that could keep him out not just this season, but all of 2017 as well. Are you ready for some flag football?

The Philadelphia Eagles (5-5 SU and ATS) aren't having much fun, either, dropping three of their last four games SU and ATS – including Sunday's injury-filled 26-15 loss to the Seattle Seahawks (–6.5 at home). But the sharps are already on Philadelphia as a 4-point home chalk for the next very special episode of Monday Night Football (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), against the aforementioned Packers. Our first consensus reports had 95 percent of early bettors putting the Eagles in their week 12 NFL picks.


Information Wants to Be Free

So the early market indicators look good. How about some data? FiveThirtyEight, our go-to source for free analytics, have the Eagles projected to win Monday's game 69 percent of the time, for an Elo-based point spread of –5.5. Sweet. As you may have noticed over at Football Outsiders, they had the Eagles at No. 1 on their efficiency rankings heading into Week 11, one spot ahead of Seattle. Those rankings may need to be tweaked a little bit for Week 12.

Seahawks DBs Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor are tied for 2nd-most passes caught from Carson Wentz. (Eagles TE Zach Ertz has caught 5).

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 20, 2016

Since we've got both the sharps and the stat geeks on Philadelphia, we're going to recommend a moderate wager the Eagles at what should be a bargain price on the NFL odds board. One caveat: RB Darren Sproles (rib) and RB Ryan Mathews (knee) seem to be relatively okay after getting bashed around by Seattle, but RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai (knee) might have to miss Monday's game – and RT Lane Johnson (PEDs) won't be back until Week 16 at the earliest. Stay healthy, my friends, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

Free NFL Pick: Eagles –3.5 (–115)Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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