NFL Betting - Where Are The Sharps Looking In Week 10

Jason Lake

Tuesday, November 8, 2016 2:11 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2016 2:11 PM UTC

The Cleveland Browns didn't come close to getting the job done last week, but they're still the sharp NFL pick for Thursday night's game against the Baltimore Ravens.


Record: 16-13-1 ATS, 4-8 Totals

At least the logic was sound. Last week, we recommended the Cleveland Browns as a contrarian pick for their game against the Dallas Cowboys (–7 away on the closing line). The sharps were in on Cleveland, dumping 69 percent of the monies wagered on this matchup. Final score: Dallas 35, Cleveland 10. Balls.

So where are the wiseguys for this week's very special episode of Thursday Night Football (8:25 p.m. ET, NFLN)? They're back on the Browns, of course. Our first expanded consensus figures are in for Week 10, and in very early action, Cleveland is pulling in 99 percent of the monies wagered from 58 percent of the betting population. The average bet size on the Browns is $1160, compared to just $18 for their opponents, the Baltimore Ravens, who are –10 home faves on our NFL odds board at press time.

Let My Cameron Go

You have to admire that stick-to-it-iveness. The Browns (0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS) had their moments early against Dallas, but when center Cameron Erving was ejected from the game less than five minutes in, the field was tilted even more toward the Cowboys. QB Cody Kessler did all right, throwing 19-of-27 for 203 yards and a touchdown with zero turnovers, but he got beaten up pretty badly behind Cleveland's makeshift offensive line.

I'm starting to actually feel sorry for the @Browns

— Deion Sanders (@DeionSanders) November 6, 2016

Assuming he plays Thursday, Kessler should get better protection against the Ravens (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS). The Browns defense should also have a much better day against Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense than they did against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Flacco is one of this year's least efficient quarterbacks; Prescott has been playing like a Pro Bowler. Football Outsiders even had Cleveland's offense (No. 25 overall) ranked ahead of Baltimore's (No. 30) heading into Week 9.

Given the truckload of cash coming in on the Browns, we're certainly content to add them to our Week 10 NFL picks. This could also be one of those “public” situations where it's good to wait for the weekend and see if Cleveland ends up at +10.5 or better, but we'll pay the extra juice and jump on board now. May the prolate spheroid be with you.


Free NFL Pick: Browns +10.5 (–130)Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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