NFL Betting: Week 9 Game-by-Game ATS Pick

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, October 29, 2014 12:25 PM GMT

Week 9 NFL betting  takes us, well and truly, into the second half of the NFL season, where the contenders start to separate from the pretenders down the stretch. Join us as we look at another competitive week of NFL betting and serve up our game-by-game ATS NFL picks for all 13 games on week 9's card.

Week 8 NFL Betting Recap
Our last round of ATS NFL picks resulted in an 8-7 mark, which happily improved our record to 42-30-1 over the last five weeks and gives us approximately a 60% winning ratio. Let’s see if we can improve that score with our week 9 NFL betting picks for each and every game against the spread.

 

Saints -2.5 vs. Panthers +2.5
The Saints are struggling to win games on the road, never mind cover as the road favourites. On the three previous occasions when they were installed as the road faves, they’ve come up blank – they are 0-3 ATS as the road chalk with a whopping minus 12.2-point cover margin. Overall, they are 3-4 ATS on the season with a significant minus 3-point cover margin and 1-3-0 ATS on the road with a hefty minus 9-point cover margin. This NFL betting spread makes little sense as a result. Well, truth be told, the Saints were the underdogs until Monday morning when the odds makers flipped the script.

Granted the Saints are coming off a big win over the Packers in week 8 NFL betting, but the 44-23 victory came at the Superdome. NFL bettors ‘in-the-know’ know just how different the Saints can be from home to away games. What’s more the Panthers became the biggest home dogs to cash last week in a 13-9 defeat to the Seahawks as the 6-point pups. As a result, they are 1-0-0 ATS as home pups with a plus 2-point cover margin. Do you want to risk going against them here?

Panthers might be struggling in the large scheme of things and they are behind a two-game losing streak, but they are still sat atop the NFC South with a 3-4-1 SU mark with a shot to maintain the lead with a crucial win here. They are 5-3 ATS on the season with a 2.2-point cover margin and a 3-1-0 ATS mark at home with a plus 0.6-point cover margin. On the evidence of both their seasons, we’re not ready to trust the Saints on the road yet. So take the Panthers as the home dogs in this game on your NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Panthers +2.5

 

Cardinals +4.0 vs. Cowboys -4.0 
Dallas Cowboys slipped up at home to the Washington Redskins in a 20-17 overtime defeat as the whopping 10-point home chalk (or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice). The Cowboys will look to bounce back against the Arizona Cardinals, who are flying high in the NFC West behind a 6-1-0 SU mark and a three-game winning streak, which also includes a 5-2-0 ATS mark with a plus 3.5-point cover margin. Despite their solid record on the season, odds makers haven’t always been onside with the Cardinals. Three times they were dubbed the underdogs on the spread, but didn’t they emerge 2-1-0 ATS to the good with an average +3.7-point cover margin.

Odds makers have taken this line down since Monday’s clash with the Redskins saw Tony Romo sidelined with an injury. If Tony Romo proves unavailable on Sunday for this clash, Cardinal’s stock value will shoot through the roof.

NFL Picks: Cardinals +4.0

 

Jaguars +12.0 vs. Bengals -12.0
The clash between the Jaguars and the Bengals is one of the most lopsided of the week’s NFL odds board. Undoubtedly, Bengals are expected to win this game. The only question remaining: are the odds makers giving them way too many points? Jaguars are still searching for their second win of the season. Most recently, they are after 27-13 defeat to the Dolphins in which Bortles threw two costly interceptions. If not for the costly interceptions, it would have been a much closer score, an aspect they’ve improved upon in the last four weeks to play opponents much closer than they did at the start of the season. Weekly underdogs, they are 2-6 ATS this season with an average of minus 5.6-point cover margin. Bengals, by contrast, pulled off a narrow 27-24 win over the Ravens last week to return to the ‘win’ column. They are 4-3-0 ATS on the season with a minus 2.6-point cover margin. Granted the Jaguars are quintessential NFL betting lightweights, but Bengals just don’t come across as the type of team to blow opponents off the field.

NFL Picks: Jaguars +12.0

 

Jets +9.5 vs. Chiefs -9.5 
New York Jets have lost the plot completely. They are in dire straits behind a seven-game losing streak and a 1-6-1 ATS mark with a minus 7.9-point average cover margin. Without a viable centre in either Michael Vick or Geno Smith, it’s hard to imagine the Jets standing a chance at Arrowhead Stadium where the Chiefs are enjoying solid form of late. Chiefs have won two in a row, they are 5-2 ATS on the season with an average cover margin of, and they are 2-1-0 ATS at home with an average cover margin of plus 10.2-points. Some odds makers have rolled out a 10-point spread for this game, which is right in their wheelhouse, but we much prefer the 9.5-point spread found at 5Dimes for our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Chiefs -9.5

 

Eagles -2.0 vs. Texans +2.0
Philadelphia Eagles were left to rue missed opportunity at the weekend after they allowed Cardinals to come from behind to snatch the pivotal 24-20 win in a right nerve-wracking game.  That missed opportunity was compounded further by Dallas’ defeat on Monday – had the Eagles won they would have resumed top spot in the NFC East at the close of week 8 NFL betting. Now the Eagles head to Houston to take on a tough Texans side that sports a 4-4 SU record and is back in the conversation behind a convincing victory in week 8 NFL betting. Houston are 5-3-0 ATS this season with an average cover margin of plus 2.2-points while Eagles are 4-3 ATS and boast a plus 5.1-point cover margin on average.

NFL Picks: Texans +2.0

 

Chargers +2.0 vs. Dolphins -2.0 
Denver Broncos kindly sent the Chargers packing from Mile High with some humble pie to munch on ahead of their second straight road game. The 35-21 defeat to the Broncos was a litmus test in more ways than one, illuminating the gap between the Chargers and the established heavyweights in the league. Fortunately, their upcoming road trip looms more manageable on paper, particularly when considering the fact the Dolphins needed a lot of help from the Blake Bortles to beat the Jaguars in week 8 NFL betting. Much of the same could be said about their win over the Bears in the previous week. It’s really not clear how good the Dolphins are or whether they are only as good as the opposition is bad.

In the Chargers, they’ll meet a pretty solid team that is both 5-3 SU and ATS this season. Strangely the Chargers are winless in their last five games with the Dolphins and just 2-6 ATS in the last eight games playing Miami and 1-4 ATS when playing the Dolphins in Miami. By the numbers, the 2-point spread for this game along with the simple fact that the Chargers are on the wrong side of it makes sense. On the strength of their seasons however we’re of a mind to chance the Chargers here on our NFL picks, if only to bounce back after the beat down in Denver.

NFL Picks: Chargers +2.0

 

Buccaneers +6.5 vs. Browns -6.5
Not a whole lot is going right for Lovie Smith and his Bucs. You could say the preseason love affair is over since they’ve fallen short of expectations. They are enjoying a three-game losing streak, which includes a missed opportunity against the Vikings last week. They are 2-5-0 ATS on the season with an average cover margin of 10.3-points. Cleveland Browns have been cashing on the spread this season quite successfully with a 4-1-2 mark and an 80% cover ratio.

NFL Picks: Browns -6.5

 

Redskins -1.0 vs. Vikings +1.0
Of all the NFL betting matchups at the weekend, this one is up in the air for many reasons. Not only are both teams under .500 for the season but also speculation abounds at centre in the Redskins camp – Colt McCoy or RGIII to start is yet unclear, a question mark that has forced odds makers to take this game off the NFL odds board temporarily. Having said that it’s worth noting the Redskins are riding a two-game winning streak behind third-string quarterback Colt McCoy, including a win over NFC East rivals Dallas Cowboys. That run of form should send them into this game on a wave of confidence. Vikings are still struggling despite winning in Tampa Bay in week 8 NFL betting – a win over the Bucs is de rigueur this season it would seem. Hardly the stuff to suggest a complete turnaround on form is on the horizon in Minnesota. Redskins as the nominal favourites on the road do seem to be the smart NFL pick at the moment.

NFL Picks: Redskins -1.0

 

Rams +9.5 vs. 49ers -9.5
A week after the Rams masterminded the big upset over the defending champions at home, they succumbed to a 34-7 defeat in Kansas City. Having barely struck an audible chord, it’s back to the status quo as far the Rams are concerned. They enter this divisional clash as the whopping 9.5-point underdogs. NFL week 6 saw these familiar foes collide, only for the Niners to run away 31-17 winners at Levi Stadium. The Rams are even more banged up than they were then, having lost Long and Quick in their clash with the Chiefs last week. It’s hard to imagine the walking wounded returning home and backing up their big win over Seattle with a second straight NFC West scalp. Take the Niners, who are coming off a bye, as the 9.5-point road chalk.

NFL Picks: Niners -9.5

 

Broncos -3.0 vs. Patriots +3.0
The Patriots aren’t often underdogs at home, but the NFL odds makers seem to think they should be so when the Broncos come calling at the Foxborough in week 9 NFL betting, marking the premier clash of the week’s NFL betting card. How do you pick against either side. By the numbers, there’s plenty to recommend each team on your NFL picks. Patriots’ home winning record is formidable while the Broncos are just formidable this season. The last meeting between these two sides was the AFC Championship game that the Broncos won 26-16, atoning for the defeat to the Patriots earlier in the season, in which they fritted away a 24-0 lead to lose 34-31 in overtime. Public betting opinion is most likely to split down the middle in this matchup. Given the Patriots’ home record, they would appear to be the value NFL pick as the 3-point home pups. Betting against the Broncos has proved folly for us in recent weeks so we’re just going to stick with the Broncos on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Broncos -3.0

 

Raiders +15.0 vs. Seahawks -15.0
Hands up if you are excited about this clash. Hands up if you are going to tune into it. Unless you are a diehard Seahawks fan, this game will matter little in the grand scheme of things. Heck, even odds makers have practically written off the Raiders with an absurd 15-point spread, marking the largest spread of the season, if not one of the largest. Next week’s headlines are sure to read: Seahawks get a much-needed ego boost behind a big win over the hapless Raiders. Take the Seahawks as the 15-point home chalk on your NFL picks or just give this game the skip.

NFL Picks: Seahawks -15.0

 

Ravens +1.0 vs. Steelers -1.0
Steelers decimate the Colts 51-34 in week 8 NFL betting, sending seismic shockwaves through NFL betting markets all while defying the NFL odds as the 3-point home pups. It’s not that the Steelers won, but rather the manner in which they did it, tearing the Colts to shreds so. It’s unlikely they would do so in back-to-back weeks however, hence the rather conservative NFL betting outlook for this game. Given the Steelers seem to have righted the ship of late and have finally managed to string together a two-game winning streak, they would seem to be the  value NFL pick. Often after big wins, there’s a letdown though. Not to take anything away from the Steelers or come across indifferent to their big win over the Colts, but the Ravens are  the second best team in the league on defense, so Big Ben won’t have an easy time of it putting up prolific numbers. What’s more, it’s hard to imagine the Ravens falling to back-to-back defeats even if they are facing two tough teams in as many weeks.

NFL Picks: Ravens +1.0

 

Colts -3.0  vs. Giants +3.0
It was the hiccup heard around the league, as the Colts succumbed to a horrendous 51-34 defeat at Heinz Arena. Andrew Luck and the Colts have an extra day to lick their wounds before they take on the New York Giants, who are coming off a bye week, in Monday Night Football betting. By and large, across sportsbooks the expectation is that the Colts would bounce back. After all, Luck has only lost back-to-back games once in his entire NFL career – the two straight defeats to open the NFL 2014 season in fact. But that notion seems to dismiss out of hand what was a horrendous defeat by the Colts, downplay it’s demoralising affect that’s sure to linger. On the opposite side of the coin, odds makers appear to be overplaying the  Giants’ struggles.  Giants are 2-1 SU and ATS at home this season, but they went into the bye week struggling on form with back-to-back defeats. Granted there is a lot of pressure on Eli Manning to lift his G-men out of the doldrums, but with a 3-4 mark on the season they are still in play for a postseason berth. They too have a lot of incentive to bounce back. For our money, we’re taking a chance on the Giants as the 3-point home pups.

NFL Picks: Giants +3.0