The NFL betting shops are busy negotiating action coming down the wire as the public takes stock of all week 8 matchups. Join us as we preview each and every game and serve up NFL picks ATS.
Week 7 NFL Betting Recap
After a run of good form through several weeks, we had a modest turn out in Week 7 with our NFL picks against the spread, going just 7-8-0 ATS: Rams beat Seattle? Jaguars beat Browns? Come on, who’d have thunk it? Still, we are in the “green” so to speak with a 34-23-1 winning record over the last four weeks with our ATS Picks. Let’s see how we do this week, shall we. Join us as we sift through the NFL odds board and serve up our early NFL picks.
San Diego Chargers +7.5 vs. Denver Broncos -7.5
A mere four days after sending the Niners packing from the Field at Mile High, shell shocked behind a 42-17 loss, the Broncos welcome divisional rivals San Diego Chargers, who are flush off a narrow 23-20 defeat to Kansas City Chiefs at home. Mile High is sure to be bouncing on Thursday under the weight of this AFC West clash, which in all likelihood features potential Super Bowl contenders this season. Sunday’s night extravaganza serves as an ominous sign for the Chargers. Consider how the Broncos put the Niners under the cosh, all while Manning swept aside Brett Favre’s passing touchdown record. It’s no wonder the Broncos are the convincing 7.5-point favourites on the spread against the Chargers. Broncos have covered the spread in three straight games while the Chargers have failed to do so in their last three. The Chargers seem to have come back down to earth since their great 3-0 SU start to the season. Although they only have two losses in six games, they are finding it harder to win and cover as the season progresses and the field of opposition improves.
Free NFL Picks: Broncos -7.5
Detroit Lions -3.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons +3.5
The Detroit Lions stormed back to take the pivotal 24-23 win over the Saints last weekend, all while erasing a 13-point deficit in the last quarter. It was a plucky effort by Matt Stafford and the Lions. Meanwhile, the Falcons have lost the plot, spiralling down to third in the NFC South (the weakest division in the league by all accounts) behind a four-game losing streak. Despite a couple of questionable results – defeat to the Bills springs to mind – the Lions are a positive 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS, which includes a 2-1 ATS on the road. Overall, they’ve outscored the opposition by 35 points through seven games, which yields a 5-point margin of victory.
London is calling when the Lions and Falcons collide in week 8 NFL betting. That fact that this game is on the other side of the pond could have an impact on both sides of the coin. Consider the Falcons, however, have been leaking points like nobody’s business. The Lions as the 3.5-point chalk on the road would appear to be a steal NFL pick. In the last four, Falcons have been outscored 127-68, which is an average margin of defeat of 14.75 points.
Free NFL Picks: Lions -3.5
Baltimore Ravens +1.0 vs. Cincinnati Bengals -1.0
Baltimore Ravens are riding good form this season. They’ve usurped the Bengals atop the AFC North division behind a two-game winning streak – beating Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons. Bengals, meanwhile, came crashing down to earth last week when they were blanked out by the Colts in Indianapolis. Granted this is a divisional rivalry and the Bengals have a solid record at home SU and ATS. But given the contrasting fortunes of both teams over the last fortnight, we feel the Ravens are the value NFL picks as the mere 1-point road pup. Ravens are 4-2-0 ATS with a 12.7 margin of victory this season while the Bengals are 3-3-0 ATS with a 1-point margin of defeat.
Free NFL Picks: Ravens +1.0 at 5Dimes
Buffalo Bills +3.0 vs. New York Jets -3.0
Banged up and bruised the Bills descend on divisional rivals New York Jets, who are desperate to snap a six-game losing streak. Bills are behind a sensational, last gasp win over the Vikings at home while the Jets are after a narrow 27-25 loss to the Patriots on Thursday, a game in which they proved the value NFL pick as the 9.5-point road chalk. Something is going to have to give when these two sides collide on Sunday. There are many uncertainties here, for instance the injury concerns for the Bills and Geno Smith’s unpredictability from game-to-game, amongst other things. That said Jets just traded for Seattle cast-off Percy Harvin, a desperately needed playmaker that could prove the difference for the Jets towards their first win since opening week. Jets are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS against the Bills at home in their last four meetings.
Free NFL Picks: Jets -3.0
Chicago Bears +6.5 vs. New England Patriots -6.5
Although the Chicago Bears are mathematically still in the NFC North mix with a 3-4 SU record, the wheel came undone in week 7 NFL betting with dramatic consequences. Brandon Marshall called the 27-14 defeat at home to the Dolphins unacceptable and called out Jay Cutler in a locker room brouhaha that was overheard by journalists and subsequently reported across all media platforms. In a quarterback centric game, losing the trust and respect of the locker room doesn’t bode well. An all out mutiny is even worse. Particularly ahead of a clash with a team that boasts a future legend at centre. The Patriots are undefeated at the Foxborough since 2013 and they are 7-4 ATS as home favourites in their last 11 home games with an average margin of victory of 9.8-points.
Free NFL Picks: Patriots -6.5
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
The Houston Texans came undone in 2 minutes on Monday Night, fritting away a 13-0 lead in the second quarter behind 24 unanswered points by the Steelers, largely down to costly offensive mistakes that set up the Steelers with short field advantage. Shell shocked so, there was no coming back after that and the Steelers ran away 30-24 winners in the end. Texans are now riding a three-game losing streak and they are 2-4 ATS on the season. In fairness, they’ve come up against three pretty good teams on paper, games in which, for the most part, they didn’t play badly, mainly on the defensive-side of the ball, despite being the significant underdogs. Overall, the Texans have outscored the opposition 155-150 for a plus 5-point differential. Divisional rivals Tennessee Titans are 2-5 SU this season, prompting the first winnable opportunity for the Houston Texans in four weeks –an auspicious turn in the schedule that the Texans should capitalise on simply by strong defensive play. The odds for this game are yet to appear on the NFL odds board because there ongoing uncertainty: Will Jake Locker will start at centre? Will Jadeveon Clowney return to the Texans defense? For our money, regardless of what happens in the Titans camp, we’re backing the Texans to come up big in this pivotal divisional clash.
Free NFL Picks: Texans
Miami Dolphins -4.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars not only beat the Browns on Sunday but they also covered as the 5.5-point underdogs at home. It’s easy to get excited about such a result, expect another set of surprises by the Jaguars in week 8 NFL betting. Vogue though it might be now to back the Jaguars on your NFL picks, for our money one win doesn’t make a winning team. The Dolphins boast one of the best rushing offenses in the league and they are averaging 359.8 yards per game. Jaguars’ defense still has a long way to go and offense is only averaging 15 points per game, a league low.
Free NFL Picks: Dolphins -4.5
Minnesota Vikings +3.0 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.0
Two losing outfits collide in week 8 when the Vikings visit the Bucs. A rookie quarterback on the road against a home favourite that leaves much to be desired. It doesn’t get worse than that, a right tossup, really. Neither side is particularly good. Both rank at the bottom of the league in just about every imaginable category. This game holds the least appeal on the NFL odds page. Back the home favourite on your NFL picks.
Free NFL Picks: Bucs -3.0
Seattle Seahawks -4.5 vs. Carolina Panthers +4.5
Seattle Seahawks have lost some of their shine in NFL betting circles after two straight head-scratchers. To lose to the Cowboys at home and then the ailing Rams on the road is simply not what NFL bettors expected of the defending champions. Hence, they travel to Carolina as the nominal 4.5-point road chalk rather than the hefty favourites they might have been had they enjoyed the kind of form they enjoyed last season. For our money, we’re not so sure they deserve to be the road chalk at all. Panthers are tough to beat at home and they are 8-3-1 ATS since last season as the home team.
Consider carefully the concerning developments in Seahawks’ camp, the prominent divisions forming in the locker room which signal trouble in diva-land, not to mention the conspicuous Super Bowl hangover we’ve witnessed over the course of the season. Granted Russell Wilson made history when he passed for over 300 yards and rushed for over 100 yards against the Rams last week, but it’s ‘much ado about nothing’ when they still lost the game. It’s that kind of individualism that is precisely concerning; if everybody continues to try to be a hero team ethos is only going to suffer further. They’ve lost Percy Harvin. Who’s next? Objectionable though the idea of a three-game losing streak (and an 0-3 ATS record) might be, for our money that’s exactly what we’re proposing. Seattle Seahawks don’t inspire confidence on the road against a Panthers side that could light up with home field advantage.
Free NFL Picks: Panthers +4.5
St. Louis Rams +6.0 vs. Kansas City Chiefs -6.0
St. Louis Rams will be hard pressed to replicate last week’s upset over Seattle in Kansas City Chiefs. While they are a non-nonsense bunch, well coached and surprisingly composed behind the unheralded Austin Davis. There’s bound to be a hangover. And if that isn’t enough, Arrowhead stadium is hostile territory – just ask Tom Brady how hostile and unforgiving it is. The Chiefs, who started 0-2 on the season, have been enjoying an upward trend since. They are back in contention with a 3-3 SU mark in third place behind the top tandem of Denver and San Diego. In an AFC West division where wins come at a premium, this is a pivotal “W” for the Chiefs to secure if they hope to keep the pressure on their rivals. The big win by the Rams aside they are essentially a two-win team –make no mistake – with a 2-4 ATS record on the season, leaking an average of 7.8-points in defeat. Chiefs at 6-points at home does appear to be bankable.
Free NFL Picks: Chiefs -6.0
Philadelphia Eagles +3.0 vs. Arizona Cardinals -3.0
Arizona Cardinals are capitalising on the struggles of their divisional rivals markedly, sitting atop the NFC West with 5-1 SU record on the season. They are also 4-2 ATS on the season with an average winning margin of 3.5-points. Eagles are coming off a bye. They are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS as well, with an 8.5-point margin of victory. Something is going to have to give when these two sides collide. Although there’s visible value on both sides of the coin, we’re backing the Eagles as the 3-point road pups. Eagles are 6-4 ATS on the road since 2013.
Free NFL Picks: Eagles +3.0
Indianapolis Colts -3.0 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers +3.0
Colts as 3-point road chalk? BUY. BUY. BUY. Indianapolis Colts are riding a five-game winning streak on the season, the second longest after Dallas. They are also 6-1-0 ATS this season – the most bankable team against the spread, thus far – with an average margin of 11.4-points. Granted most of those points were posted against lightweights in the league. Any doubt about their merit though was dispelled after decimating the Bengals 27-0 in week 7 NFL betting. Colts deserve to be the road chalk until proven otherwise. Big Ben and the Steelers are after an impressive win over the Texans on Monday Night Football betting; but they’ve oscillated from win-to-loss weekly. If that trend holds true, they are due a loss in week 8.
Free NFL Picks: Colts -3.0
Oakland Raiders +7.0 vs. Cleveland Browns -7.0
It’s the same old Raiders, different coach. On the other hand, Browns hit a bump in the road when they descended on the Jacksonville Jaguars and lost abysmally. Look for the Raiders to continue their poor form all while the Browns right the ship in this game. At first glance, seven-points does seem a bit much though when you consider the Browns are 3-1-2 ATS on the season with an average margin of victory a trifling 0.2-points and they’ve only outscored the opposition by a point (140-to-139) through six games. That said, in their one lone game as home favourites this season, they covered the spread by a healthy 21-points (31-10 over the Steelers). The Raiders are considerably weaker than the Steelers are and they’ve been blowout in four of their six games. So perhaps the 7-point spread on the NFL odds board is appropriate.
Free NFL Picks: Browns -7.0
Green Bay Packers +1.0 vs. New Orleans Saints -1.0
Green Bay Packers as the 1-point road pups? BUY! BUY! BUY! A good team on low prices is a steal in our NFL betting bible. Saints might be 8-2-0 ATS at home since 2013 with an average margin of victory of 16.4 points. They might also be undefeated at home in their last ten games as well. Streaks however inevitably end. Consider the Saints are a disappointment this season, below .500 and being outscored and outmuscled 155-to-165 already, it’s only a matter of time before the Superdome receives a defeat. If there were a quarterback and team to put paid on that home winning trend, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are a good bet.
Free NFL Picks: Packers +1.0
Washington Redskins +9.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys -9.5
Dallas Cowboys are riding the momentum of a six game winning streak, the longest winning run of the season and their best start to a season in forever. Although the anti-Cowboys brigade has been silenced for the time being, they’re only waiting in the wings, eager to pipe up again. A mismatch as this one appears is just the sort of game that could bring them out, fangs and all in full force.
Therefore, Cowboys can’t take anything for granted, including their favourable NFL odds, albeit a 9.5-point spread does seem hefty. Cowboys are 5-2 ATS this season with an average margin of victory at 7-points, while the Redskins are 2-5 ATS their average margin of defeat is only 4.6-points. There’s some ambiguity surrounding this game that NFL bettors should pay close attention to before deciding on their NFL picks, which has forced the NFL odds off the board for the time being. Reports are that RGIII could potentially start against the Cowboys, which could see the line fall in proportion to his perceived betting value. If he doesn’t start, third-string backup Colt McCoy will start. For the time being, we’re placing a tentative NFL pick on the Redskins to cover as the 9.5-point pups.
Free NFL Picks: Redskins +9.5