NFL Betting - Week 7 Consensus Report - Who Got It Wrong?

Geno Smith Of The NY Jets

Friday, October 21, 2016 5:47 PM GMT

The Jets are in a tough spot, being forced to start Geno Smith, and the Ravens might not have Flacco at QB position. Are the line move justified here? Here's out NFL pick.

 vs   Ravens vs. Jets

Opener: Pick ‘em (Sportsbook.ag)

Current: NYJ -2½ -115 (Sportsbook.ag)

 

NFL PICKS ATS RECORD: 46-30-1

Jets Decide to Start Geno Smith at QB vs. Ravens on Sunday in Sure Sign of The Apocalypse

You know things are bad when you’re turning to Geno Smith to steer your 1-5 ship, and that’s exactly what New York Jets Head Coach is doing in NFL Regular Season Week 7, sitting Ryan Fitzpatrick and giving the former West Virginia signal-caller his shot to run Gang Green’s Offense. And with Baltimore QB Joe Flacco hobbled and Ryan Mallett a possible go in his stead, bettors are timidly backing the Jets and Smith. The horror. Let’s explain why this New York money makes no sense and make a Common Sense pick for this game from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on Sunday afternoon.

A 2½-point move on Jets money at Sportsbetting.ag—which is offering a 75% Free Play Bonus and has an A grade in SBR’s Best Offshore Sportsbooks Ratings—and that seems wrong. As bad as Baltimore has been Offensively, and even if Ravens starting QB Joe Flacco (Probable) can’t go because of his bad Shoulder and the visitors will have to go to backup Ryan Mallett in this game, at least the Ravens (0-4 ATS L4 overall) Passing attack shouldn’t be hurt. When called upon last season, Mallett was 58-97 for 566 yards with 2 TDs and 2 Interceptions. But despite Flacco (37-32-5 ATS at on Road) not practicing Wednesday or Thursday, conventional wisdom and the upgrade to Probable means maybe best prepare for a Flacco-Geno Smith starting QB reality. 

Jets' Head Coach Todd Bowles opting to start Smith over Ryan Fitzpatrick—a big part of the reason NY (5-0-1 ATS L6 Week 7, Over 6-0 L6 Week 7) has gotten off to this horrific 1-5 start (1-4-1 ATS). But this is a mistake—Smith’s first start since Week 17 of 2014 season—and could provide an edge for Baltimore backers and/or Under players with conservative QB play by both and heavy doses of Jets RB Matt Forte (Probable) early on. And maybe Fitzpatrick coming in later?

 Relevant Series and Overall Trends, Best Betting Approach: 9-1 ATS Impossible to Ignore

Baltimore is a pretty 9-1 ATS the L10 meetings in this series—4-0 ATS the L4 at MetLife—and another thing to think about here besides the (likely very temporary) QB switch for Gang Green is the Jets TO problem. The Jets come in with a -12 TO Differential—worst in the NFL—while the Ravens (Under 7-3 L10 FieldTurf) are +3 after having the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL last season (-14). Possession matters and bringing in a new QB to an already TO-prone team sounds dangerous, especially against an angry Ravens (Under 4-1 L5 Week 7) team which has also been their own worst enemy, failing to convert in the Red Zone much this season. This one should start slow—the Under may be a look—and evolve into a coaching chess match with both HC's knowing the significance of a Loss as we hit the Regular Season’s halfway mark.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.

 

Predicted Final Score: Ravens 17 Jets 16Free NFL Pick: Ravens +2½Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011284, "sportsbooksIds":[238,1096,93,123], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]