NFL Betting: Week 6 NFL Odds Movement to Keep an Eye On

Nikki Adams

Sunday, October 18, 2015 12:41 PM GMT

On the cusp of Sunday’s round of NFL betting we review the NFL odds and spot significant movements on the board for sharp bettors looking to make last minute NFL picks.

Week 6 Early Odds
Earlier in the week, we looked at the NFL betting board for week 6 and served up opening odds according to Odds Shark. In this column, we examine how those NFL odds are taking shape as the door approaches to closing time and where the consensus NFL bets are according to reputable online sports betting tracking outlets.

Table 1: Opening NFL Odds As Per Odds Shark

MATCHUP

RECORD

ATS

SU

TOTAL

Falcons

5-0

 

-165

 

Saints

1-4

+3

+140

50.5

Cardinals

4-1

 

-157

 

Steelers

3-2

+3.5

+143

45.5

Bears

2-3

 

+140

 

Lions

0-5

-2.5

-165

44.5

Bengals

5-0

 

-125

 

Bills

3-2

+1

+105

45

Broncos

5-0

 

-235

 

Browns

2-3

+3.5

+190

42

Texans

1-4

 

-125

 

Jaguars

1-4

EVEN

+105

43

Chiefs

1-4

 

+175

 

Vikings

2-2

-4.5

-210

44.5

Dolphins

1-3

 

+125

 

Titans

1-3

-2.5

-145

45

Redskins

2-3

 

+200

 

Jets

3-1

-5.5

-250

41.5

Panthers

4-0

 

+260

 

Seahawks

2-3

-5.5

-319

41.5

Ravens

1-4

 

-160

 

Niners

1-4

+2

+140

43.5

Chargers

2-3

 

+394

 

Packers

5-0

-9.5

-461

49

Patriots

4-0

 

-450

 

Colts

3-2

+7

+350

55

Giants

3-2

 

+165

 

Eagles

2-3

-3.5

-190

50

A word On Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football is in the books with the Saints coming through as the 3-point home underdogs in a 31-21 win over the Falcons that just cracked the 51-point total of early doors, rewarding early OVER bettors. At closing doors, however, the total had crept up to 52.5 points so late bettors backing the UNDER 52.5-points cashed. That illustrates just how slim the margins are in NFL betting.

With that in mind, we examine the NFL odds board as it stands on Saturday night, mere hours away from the first batch of games kicking off at 10 AM EST on Sunday. (Table 2). For the sake of proficiency, we look only at the ATS and Total Odds, and we take the highest recorded move that we can find.

Table 2: NFL Odds Week 6 Moves ATS And Totals

MATCHUP

RECORD

OPENING ATS

CURRENT ATS

TOTAL

Cardinals

4-1

 

 

 

Steelers

3-2

+3.5

+4

45

Bears

2-3

 

 

 

Lions

0-5

-2.5

-3.5

44

Bengals

5-0

 

 

 

Bills

3-2

+1

+3

43

Broncos

5-0

 

 

 

Browns

2-3

+3.5

+5

42.5

Texans

1-4

 

 

 

Jaguars

1-4

EVEN

-1

43

Chiefs

1-4

 

 

 

Vikings

2-2

-4.5

-3.5

44

Dolphins

1-3

 

 

 

Titans

1-3

-2.5

-1

43.5

Redskins

2-3

 

 

 

Jets

3-1

-5.5

-7.5

40.5

Panthers

4-0

 

 

 

Seahawks

2-3

-5.5

-7

40.5

Ravens

1-4

 

 

 

Niners

1-4

+2

+2

43.5

Chargers

2-3

 

 

 

Packers

5-0

-9.5

-11.5

51

Patriots

4-0

 

 

 

Colts

3-2

+7

+10

55

Giants

3-2

 

 

 

Eagles

2-3

-3.5

-5.5

49.5

Reviewing Moves on the NFL Odds Board
As Table 2 indicates, there has been a lot of movement In both ATS and Total betting markets. Only one game remains largely unmoved and that is the clash between the Ravens and Niners, most likely because it’s hard to know what to expect from either team after putting forward a 1-4 SU mark through five weeks. That said consensus betting reveals a slight lean towards the Niners at home, both against the spread and SU – Vegas Insider records 52% of the money is on the Niners at +2 to cover and 82% is backing the Niners to win SU.

That the Patriots and Packers have seen their spreads swell on the NFL odds board is no surprise, with the public cornering the game in their camp overwhelmingly. In the case of the Patriots, it’s a whopping 90%+ going towards the spread and money line markets. Luck’s questionable status plays a hand in this outlook, but let’s not take anything away from the Patriots who are undefeated and steamrolling opponents from week to week.

One of the most surprising moves of the week has to be the Lions improving from 2.5 to 3.5-points against the spread. How the Lions can be favored by so many points when they are winless on the season is a mystery to us. That and the fact that they are the consensus pick according to Odds Shark with 53% of the money logged in on the Lions to win and cover.

With the continued uncertainty surrounding Blake Bortles (Jaguars) and Tyrod Taylor (Bills), the NFL lines for their respective games have been hopping. Of all the games on the NFL odds board, these two offer up too many variables to make it the least popular games to bet on.

As far as the Redskins and Jets are concerned, the line has moved by a full 2-points, which is a big jump by all accounts. The Seattle Seahawks may be 2-3 SU and the Panthers 4-0 SU, but the line is moving conspicuously in the hosts’ favor. They too are up by 2-points at the very least. Obviously, the public is buying what they are selling at CenturyLink at the expense of the undefeated Panthers. However, consensus betting reveals the Panther are edging the Seahawks slightly to cover the hefty spread of 7.5-points, which indicates that the expectation is for a closely fought game.

Where the Vikings are concerned, the line has come down from an early high of 4.5 points to 3.5-points. It’s still a bit much for the Vikings in our opinion to be favored by more than a field goal, but the line seems to be headed in the right direction. The Chiefs may be 1-4 SU on the season, but their quality belies their record. Put it this way, if they were to beat the Vikings on the road, few NFL bettors would be surprised. It’s not exactly an outrageous “out-there” notion.

In any event, that’s just some of the key movements on the NFL odds board to spot. So if you’re looking to make a late NFL pick on any game this week be sure to find NFL lines and odds that fit in best with your predictions for the game. Good luck to ya!