NFL Betting: Week 3 Value Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 17, 2013 1:54 PM GMT

Tuesday, Sep. 17, 2013 1:54 PM GMT

After a successful record in last week's games, let's see if we can keep up this streak with our Week 3 football value picks.

 

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Last week, I was a perfect 3-0 and have started 4-0-1 with our value plays. Miami was the most convincing victory and we needed a little magic in the final minutes to eke out victories with Baltimore and Dallas. But this is the NFL and you already know going in the vast majority of spread wins or losses will take place in the final minutes. Let’s move ahead with this week's NFL picks.

Giants Stink, But Not That Bad

The Giants are 0-2 and have just over a 10 percent chance to make the playoffs based on probability. For backers of Big Blue, they have no running game; Eli Manning is playing more like Kent Graham than his typical efforts and the defense, well, they are surrendering 38.5 points a game. Even as bad as all this is for the G-Men, should they really be underdog or a pick to Carolina?

Maybe Tom Coughlin’s crew will prove me wrong, but I am having a hard time thinking the Panthers can win this game. This is a Chris Berman “circle the wagons” game for the Giants, besides, nobody, I repeat nobody, knows how to blow a fourth quarter lead like Carolina who leads the NFL in defeats since 2011 when ahead in the final period.

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NFL Pick: Bet the Giants on the spread, +1.5 at Bet365

 

Cardinals, Tricky Birds All Season

Arizona took advantage of the usual Detroit mistakes and engineered the very minor upset over the Lions at home. Carson Palmer is very comfortable in coach Bruce Arians' offense and the development of Michael Floyd as a receiver gives Palmer another reliable target besides Larry Fitzgerald.

The Cardinals defense is only average, but they have playmakers and coupled with their special teams approach, this collective group can keep these desert birds in games.

The New Orleans offense is piling up the yards, just not the points thus far at 19.5 per game. Eventually, the Saints will be more productive with Drew Brees at the controls, but this is not a perfect football team just yet. The defense is definitely improved (how could it not be?) in conceding only 31 points to division rivals, however, New Orleans is allowing 5.3 yards per rush and Arians is an adaptable play-caller and seldom give up on the run.

I know the Saints are 13-3 ATS as home favorite the past three years, yet something about this Arizona team has me thinking they can keep it under a touchdown outcome.

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NFL Pick: Take Arizona +7.5 on the spread at Ladbrokes

 

Quit Riding the Dolphins

Miami could hardly have started the season any better, with two outright wins on the road as an underdog in the NFL odds. But until we see information to the contrary, these are still the Dolphins, now back home where they are spit-out losers like the Marlins.

Next up for the 'Fins is Atlanta, who has gone from a running team to an Arena Football squad, rushing the ball 30 times in two games out of 111 offensive plays. Coach Mike Smith has given the keys to Matty Ice and asked his quarterback to lead them to wins and with the perimeter weapons the Falcons have, Matt Ryan can be the man.

Here are angles impossible to ignore. Miami is 11-29 ATS after a two-game road trip and desultory 0-8 ATS after two consecutive road victories. With Atlanta 17-5 ATS after permitting 400 or more yards on defense in back to back outings, let’s take the sports betting value of the road team against a club known for not playing well at home.

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NFL Pick: Bet the Atlanta Falcons +1 at William Hill

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