NFL Betting: Week 3 Fades & Games to Avoid

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 17, 2013 1:55 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 17, 2013 1:55 PM UTC

Last week, we  listed three games which could be trouble for NFL football bettors and all three home teams won and covered. Will the same hold true again this week or will the spreads outcomes be tighter be than a two-piece bikini on Coco?


Follow our continuing NFL odds coverage! Check out our NFL Week 3 Betting Odds Report!

What do you do with a 20-point spread in September?

Seattle opened in the early NFL odds as a supersized 16.5-point spread against a jittery Jacksonville club and went quickly to Big Gulp status at -20. Had to actually look out the window to make sure I did not miss most of autumn, since spreads like this normally occur in the last quarter of the season, not the first month of a new campaign.

In truth, the spread is probably justified with Seattle no worse than the second-best team in the NFL and the Jaguars decidedly the worst team in the league.

Jacksonville has scored one touchdown this season which is how many the Seahawks have permitted, thus, figuring the Jags to reach double digits does take an imagination. Chad Henne has been given more chances to succeed as a NFL quarterback than Lindsay Lohan has been given to prove she should be called an actress.

You have to wonder if Seattle players will even care off their impressive win over San Francisco and having Houston on deck. This price feels like a seven-point teaser and better sports picks are worth a look either way.

Looking for the sweet end of Week 3? Read our NFL Week 3 Value Picks!

Half the effort not working for Houston and Baltimore

The Texans have engineered two miraculous comebacks this season and have hardly played anywhere close to a team with Super Bowl aspirations. The Houston offense has placed the defense in tough spots, which is why they have given 52 points in two games, yet rank fifth in total defense.

Matt Schaub and his offensive teammates are responding to crisis mode, but that is no way to establish dominance. Maybe head coach Gary Kubiak does not want to his team to peak to early like last season, nonetheless, this is a thrill ride best enjoyed by lesser teams.

Baltimore will be a home underdog for only the fourth time in the past five years and with Ray Rice’s availability for this contest in question, the struggling Ravens could find it a tough go, after trailing Cleveland for two-thirds the game before pulling out a late cover.

These are two clubs not in sync and hard to have a read on just yet.

Denver looks awesome, but history counts for something

Peyton Manning has the Denver offense in another gear, averaging 45 points a game and that was against two defenses with a reputation. The Broncos have run off to chalky 15.5-point NFL betting favorites within 24 hours of release in preparation for their Monday night matchup with rival Oakland.

The Raiders have given two solid accountings of themselves in spite of having severe salary cap limitations with previous foolish long-term contracts.

Oakland plays with no fear in the Mile High City with a 6-1 ATS mark the last seven years, which includes four outright wins (one as two-touchdown dogs in 2009).

Manning directs certainly the best team in the AFC and possibly in all of football, but stranger things have happened when these two hated rivals collide. 

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