NFL Betting: Week 2 Value Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 10, 2013 6:06 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 10, 2013 6:06 PM UTC

We've already taken a look at the Week 2 NFL games you should avoid if you're a serious sports bettor. Now, let's examine which games this week definitely are worth your betting dollar.

Check out our NFL Week 2 Opening Odds Report for additional information on this week's games!

Last week I was 1-0-1 in the two value plays I handed out with Cincinnati unable to close-out Chicago and giving us a Push. I was wrong on the lower totals going Over, finishing 2-3 on those contests and what surprised me the most from everything I saw last week was how good the tackling was despite a decrease in preseason hitting. Let’s move ahead to Week 2.

Ravens waiting

Baltimore was humbled in Denver as Peyton Manning threw for seven touchdown passes against them. Fixing the defense will be a top priority this week and this should not be problem against Cleveland, who had all kinds of issues moving the ball with any consistency against Miami in their loss. I fully expect the Browns to suffer the same fate against the Baltimore defense.

Though Cleveland has a good secondary, Joe Flacco will still take deep shots and he has to know his tight ends Dallas Clark and Ed Dickson cannot play any worse than they did in the opener. The Ravens have failed to cover the past three meetings with Cleveland at home, but in those instances they were a double digit chalk each time and this is a more manageable number. With Cleveland 2-10 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, the Ravens are the right sports pick.


NFL Pick: Bet Baltimore -6.5 on the spread at Ladbrokes

Kansas City still unproven

I played Jacksonville on a hunch last week, thinking they were moderately improved and the Chiefs were overvalued with head coach Andy Reid wearing a red lid. On the first point, I could not have been more wrong; nevertheless, I will still need further proof to say K.C. is on the come.

I was pleasantly surprised to see Kansas City had gone from a one-point home favorite to -2.5  uin the NFL odds against Dallas, which tells me the Cowboys money has not started flowing, but it would be expected to as the week progresses.

Dallas showed a different assertiveness on defense and forced six turnovers, converting two into touchdowns. For whatever, Tony Romo did not look in a hurry and eyes did not have that racing look we have seen often from him in the past. Granted it is one game, but taking the line at face value, are the Chiefs talented enough to be basically a Push with the Cowboys after a 2-14 campaign? No matter the coach or upgrade at certain positions?

Let’s take Dallas outright to win for our NFL picks; sporting a 7-2 ATS mark against the AFC under Coach Jason Garrett.


NFL Pick: Pick Dallas to win ATS at +3 (-115) at Bet365

Ride the Dolphins as Dogs

Last week I called for Miami to win and cover against Cleveland and they did so with relative ease in the second half.

Indianapolis had a rugged time with Oakland, which probably cost us a half to a full point of line value, but that could still change in our favor as the week continues.

Virtually everyone is calling for the Colts to return revert back to the norm after a 2-14 season was followed by a stunning 11-5 playoff season. Miami can rush the passer and slow the running game and is sufficient enough on the back end to contain Andrew Luck and the passing game.

After last week, the Fins moved to 24-11-1 ATS as road underdogs and I will stay with them again, but I have to have at least the +3.


NFL Pick: Bet the Dolphins +3 (-120) on the spread at William Hill

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