NFL Betting: Week 15 Opening Odds Report & Matchup Breakdown

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, December 15, 2015 1:20 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2015 1:20 PM UTC

In this weekly column, we look at early week 15 NFL betting lines and compare them to last week’s Advanced Lines from Westgate. How are NFL odds taking shape?  Let’s find out.

Bucs vs. Rams
Advanced Line (12/8): STL -1
Opening Line (12/13): TB -1

The simple fact that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened as the 1-point favourites on the heels of Sunday is remarkable. That would have been unheard of last season; never mind on the road. Bucs may be coming off a home loss to the Saints last week, but they’ve turned enough heads this season to warrant opening as the road favourites. St. Louis however showed they’re not done yet in week 14 by upsetting the Lions. When two bad teams going head-to-head the takeaway is debatable though. The line has moved down to a pick’em at most sportsbooks with St. Louis favoured.          

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Jets vs. Cowboys
Advanced Line (12/8): NYJ -3

Opening Line (12/13): NYJ -3
The New York Jets are coming off a convincing win over the Tennessee Titans in week 14, covering the hefty 8-to-9-point closing spread comfortably in a 30-8 win. Cowboys, meanwhile, succumbed to a 28-7 loss to the Packers on the road, failing to cover as the 7-point underdogs despite sharp money coming down on Dallas in early NFL betting markets. The upshot of these contrasting outcomes is that the Jets opened on 3-points, unmoved from the Advanced serving at Westgate. As it is, the line is moving against the Jets, dwindling down to 2.5-points even though SBR consensus betting reveals 67.51% of the early tickets coming down the wire leaned towards the Jets, of which comprises 64.32% of the money risked on this game. This could be an indication of early sharp money liking the home underdogs. We’re inclined to look at this as an opportunity to buy low on the Jets with an underrated backup quarterback leading a decent offense and supported by a solid defense.

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Falcons vs. Jaguars
Advanced Line (12/8): PK

Opening Line (12/13): JAX -3.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars walloped the Colts in a 51-16 showdown in Jacksonville, making a mockery of the 1-point spread trading on the game. The Falcons, meanwhile, were completely MIA in a 38-0 loss to the Carolina Panthers. Granted the Panthers are the class of the NFC this season, but a failure to record a single point in the game is inexcusable. It’s obvious old habits die hard as odds makers open this game in field-goal range. That the Falcons haven’t covered a game in their last eight turns around the league and are riding a six-game losing streak both look to be conveniently ignored, not only by the NFL Odds makers but also by the public as early betting looks to be split almost evenly between this pair. Jaguars are now trading as 3-point favourites, which presents an opportunity to buy low on the home chalk.

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Bills vs. Redskins
Advanced Line (12/8): BUF -1

Opening Line (12/13): WAS -1
The Redskins swung back into favour in this game behind a 24-21 road win over the Bears. Underscoring this NFL betting outlook is not only home advantage but also a 5-2 SU edge at home. The Bills losing to the Eagles and probably undoing their playoff bid in the process also factors in this renewed NFL betting outlook. Redskins have a lot at stake with a chance to win the division. The premium on the win couldn’t be any greater as a result. That said, early NFL betting is practically split down the middle between this pair, moving the line down to a PK at most sports betting shops.

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Panthers vs. Giants
Advanced Line (12/8):  CAR -3.5

Opening Line (12/13): OTB
This line is off the NFL odds board as the Giants battle the Dolphins in MNF. However, it’s worth mentioning the complete lack of respect the Panthers are getting by NFL odds makers. They are undefeated on the season with a 10-3 ATS mark  that is comprised of 12.9-point winning margin on average and a plus 9.6-point differential against the spread. The Advanced Line of 3.5-points on the road doesn’t seem to do them justice. Then again, the Giants are an unpredictable side and quite popular in NFL betting circles. Perhaps, bookies do have it right. It remains to be seen where it opens following MNF.

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Bears vs. Vikings
Advanced Line (12/8): MIN -4

Opening Line (12/13): MIN -5
Although the Vikings lost on Thursday Night Football, they gave as good as they got in Arizona. In fact, they had a chance to tie the game had they opted to kick a field goal in the dying seconds. Instead they got greedy and paid for it as Teddy Bridgewater was sacked….game over. Just as the Bears looked to be getting into a rhythm, they drop two in a row. Predictably, they’ve fallen out of favour in sports betting circles as early NFL betting trends reveal a distinct flow of bets coming down the wire on the home chalk. As a result, Vikings improve to 5.5-points since Sunday’s opening NFL odds. This is probably a spread bettors should consider buying now.

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Texans vs. Colts
Advanced Line (12/8): OTB

Opening Line (12/13): OTB
The Texans and Colts are to lock horns in a pivotal showdown in week 15 NFL betting that could potentially be title deciding in the AFC South. It remains off the board, however, as the various quarterback issues in both camps are assessed.



Chiefs vs. Ravens
Advanced Line (12/8): KC -5

Opening Line (12/13): KC -7.5
Although the Chiefs failed to come through as double-digit favourites in week 14 over the visiting Chargers, they hit the road as significant 7.5-point road favourites this week. Up from an Advanced serving of 5-points last week. That has more to do with the way the Ravens were annihilated by the Seahawks at home last week than anything else. The 33-6 mauling was gruesome.

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Titans vs. Patriots
Advanced Line (12/8): NE -10

Opening Line (12/13): NE -14
The New England Patriots bounced back to winning form with a 27-6 win over the Texans in Sunday night football betting. Promptly they opened as the two-touchdown home favourites in week 15 NFL betting. With Rob Gronkowski back and factoring in last week’s win, confidence in the Patriots is renewed. That and the fact that the Jets handed the Titans a big loss in Sunday’s early tilts. If the Jets can beat the Titans with a 22-point margin of victory and a plus 14-point differential. Surely, the Patriots can do better. Indeed, consensus betting is all over the Patriots pushing the line up to 15.5-points already.

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Browns vs. Seahawks
Advanced Line (12/8): SEA -13.5

Opening Line (12/13): SEA -14
Johnny Manziel led the Browns to their first win in forever as they beat the unimpressive San Francisco 49ers. Next up is another NFC West challenge. If the way the Seahawks are playing isn’t concerning enough, the NFL betting lines moving like a shot up to 16-points is more so. That and there’s evidently sharp early money on the Seahawks already as the 45.45% of early NFL betting tickets represents almost 60% of the money invested on this game.
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Packers vs. Raiders
Advanced Line (12/8): GB -3

Opening Line (12/13): GB -2.5
The Raiders masterminded the upset at Mile High last weekend while the Packers ran away 28-7 winners at home to a severely weakened Cowboys side. The Packers remain road faves for week 15 NFL betting, but they came down from an Advanced serving of -3 to -2.5 on Sunday Night. Since early markets went to press, the line jumped back up to -3 as the bulk of early NFL betting has been on the Packers so far.

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Bengals vs. Niners
Advanced Line (12/8): CIN -7

Opening Line (12/13): CIN -4.5
Andy Dalton’s injury has caused this line to shrink from an Advanced serving of -7 to -4.5, Not that AJ McCarron is fussed or insulted in the least that his calling skills aren’t held in the same regard. Referring to Tom Brady and how the Patriot’s starter became the franchise No.1 quarterback over a decade ago in a post-game presser following Cincinnati’s hefty 33-20 loss to the Steelers, he seemed to be suggesting this opportunity was one and the same. Wonder if Andy Dalton knows his understudy is gunning for his job. Hmmm… In any event, odds makers are still buying the team as a whole, setting them up as significant road favourites at Levi Stadium.  It remains to be seen whether McCarron will live up to the measure he chose for himself or rue his brash words.

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Broncos vs. Steelers
Advanced Line (12/8): PIT -4.5

Opening Line (12/13): PIT -6.5
So the little love affair with Brock Osweiler hit a snag last week as the Broncos succumbed to the Raiders at Mile High in forever. It was one of their worst performances as a team. It also highlighted some of Osweiler’s inexperience as he crashed down to earth with a thud on numerous occasions. The upshot of which the Broncos’ NFL odds swell from the Advanced +4.5 to +6.5 on Sunday. NFL betting opinion, however, is split down the middle as there’s a lot of public support for both these outfits. The NFL line already shrinks to -5.5 with the Steelers to the good.

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Dolphins vs. Chargers
Advanced Line (12/8): SD -1

Opening Line (12/13):  OTB
Once again, the NFL betting line on this game is off the board as the Dolphins are mired in a MNF showdown with the Giants. That said, following San Diego’s latest loss – second straight loss and eighth in their last nine games –it would be a shocker if the Chargers opened as the home chalk. In three of their last four games, the Chargers have mustered up just three points on the board. If that’s not throwing the towel in? What is? How they opened as the 1-point home chalk in Advanced betting beggars belief.

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Cardinals vs. Eagles
Advanced Line (12/8):  ARI -3.5

Opening Line (12/13): ARI -4
The Arizona Cardinals secured their playoff spot along with the NFC West crown with a 23-20 win over the Vikings on Thursday Night. The Eagles backed up their upset of the Patriots with a 23-20 win over the Bills. Advanced lines had the Cards favoured at -3.5 and that didn’t change by Sunday when they opened on 4-points with the Cards to the good on the road. Is a two-game winning streak enough to encourage NFL bettors to back the Eagles on their NFL Picks as the home dogs?

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Lions vs. Saints
Advanced Line (12/8): NO -1.5

Opening Line (12/13): NO -3
Another Monday Night Football game NFL bettors wish the NFL could flex. The deflated, downtrodden and defeated Detroit Lions take on the unpredictable and inconsistent New Orleans Saints in what is nothing more than a pride piece for both. The Saints were dubbed the nominal 1.5-point home chalk in Advanced betting but on the heels of their win over the Bucs on the road they improved to 3-points. Similarly, the Lions’ loss to the injury-ridden Rams played a hand in pushing the Saints up the NFL odds board. Of  all the games, this one is sure to be a tossup on NFL picks.

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