NFL Betting Week 13: Advanced Line From the Westgate Las Vegas

Kevin Stott

Sunday, November 29, 2015 6:13 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 29, 2015 6:13 PM UTC

Here are your Week 13 Advanced Point Spreads along with recent series results, Trends and some NFL picks for SBR readers to keep ahead of the other guys throwing darts.

Green Bay Packers -6 at Detroit Lions
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS, Lost to Bears on Thanksgiving, 17-13) head to Ford Field in Detroit on Thursday night to face the rejuvenated Detroit Lions (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS; beat Eagles 45-14 on Thanksgiving) in an NFC North affair important to the visitors and a game in which both teams will strangely get the normal 6 Days of Rest after both playing on Thanksgiving in Week 12. When these two met at Lambeau Field in Week 10 earlier this season, the Packers were surprised and upset by Detroit, 18-16, losing outright as 10½-point favorites while in this meeting last year here in the Motor City, Green Bay lost 19-7 in Week 3 getting 1½ points, so despite the Packers dominance in the division, Detroit is not scared of the Cheesehead and are probably considered a nuisance. But in terms of just winning this outright, the Lions will have more trouble here having already shocked Green Bay. The Packers are 6-3 ATS the L9 in this series. Green Bay was also made a 6-point chalk here by Jay Kornegay & Co. over at the SuperBook in their NFL Games of the Year odds released late Spring.


San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears -7 Even
Jay Cutler and the upstart Chicago Bears (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS, Beat Packers on Thanksgiving, 17-13) welcome Blaine Gabbert and the San Francisco 49ers (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS, vs. Cardinals on Sunday) to Soldier Field next Sunday afternoon for this Week 13 game which may only matter to the hosts because of their buttery Turkey Day night win at Lambeau Field. The last time these two teams played, the Bears won 28-20 at Levi’s Stadium last season, getting 8 points while the last time these two met in Chicago, the Lovie Smith-coached bears thrashed the Niners, 41-10 and covered ATS as 16-point favorites in 2006. San Francisco had scored the least number of points in the NFL heading into Week 2 and will be losing 2 Body Clock Hours heading in traveling the 1,615 miles from San Francisco (PST) to Chicago (CST) and with the way the Bears looked in the 1st Half at Green Bay laying the lumber with the hosts against a ratty team is logical. Embrace Logic. Trash goes in the trash can.

NFL Pick: Bears -7 Even


Cincinnati Bengals -7 at Cleveland Browns
Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals (8-2 SU, 7-1-2 ATS, vs. Rams Sunday) head upstate to FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland next Sunday to face John McCown and the Browns (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS, vs. Ravens) in an AFC North affair that will only matter to the visitors and AJ Green. When these two met earlier this year in Cincinnati, the Bengals rolled 31-10 and covered ATS, laying 13 points while in the last meeting here in the city that’s home to the Rock N’ Roll Hall of Fame, the Bengals shut out the Browns, 30-0, winning outright as 2½-point underdogs. With the Bengals playing for postseason positioning in the AFC and Cleveland so bad, expect a double-digit Win from Cincinnati here in relatively easy fashion, despite the Buckeye state rivalry.

NFL Pick: Bengals -7


Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans -2½
Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6 SU, 5-4 ATS; vs. Chargers Sunday) head to LP Field in Nashville to face Rookie QB Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS; vs. Raiders on Sunday) next Sunday in an AFC South Week 13 affair and quick turnaround rematch of their TNF game in Week 11, won and covered (-3) by the Jaguars, 19-13. In last year’s meeting between these two here in the Volunteer State, the Titans won 16-14 but failed to cover as 4-point chalks and even though teams are better than last season, this still seems like it could be a low-scoring, boring affair like the two aforementioned. The Titans are an abysmal 1-8-1 ATS the L10 against the Jags and 1-4 ATS the L5 at Home.

NFL Pick: Jaguars +2½


Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills No Line
There is no Early Line on this game between the Buffalo Bills (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS; at Chiefs Sunday) because Houston Texans (5-5 ATS, 5-5 ATS, vs. Saints on Sunday) starting QB Brian Hoyer (Concussion) just passed the NFL’s Concussion Protocol and NFL oddsmakers probably want to see how he fares and how he long he goes in Week 12. The last time these two AFC teams played, the Bills lost 23-17 at Houston last season and failed to cover, getting 2½ points while in the last meeting here at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo, the Dick Jauron-coached Bills lost to the Texans, 31-10, failing to cover ATS as 3½-point underdogs in 2009. The Texans are 3-0 ATS the L3 in this series, playing much-improved Defense and back in the Playoff hunt and can definitely win this game. Expect host Buffalo to open up in the 2½- to 4-point range.


Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins -6½
Why so high? Because Baltimore Ravens (3-7 SU, 2-7-1 ATS, vs. Browns on Sunday) Ravens QB Joe Flacco (Knee) is done for the season. Here the Blackbirds head to Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens next Sunday afternoon to face the host Ndamukong Suh and the Miami Dolphins (4-6 ATS, 4-6 ATS, at Jets Sunday) in a pretty much meaningless AFC inter-divisional Week 13 affair. When these two last met last season here in Miami Gardens, the Ravens won 28-13 getting 3 points and even with Flacco out for the season and backup Matt Schaub in (Bears releasee Jimmy Clausen is now Baltimore’s #3 guy), Baltimore can filet the Fish here and are worth consideration both ATS and SU. The Ravens are sparkling 5-0 ATS in the L5 meetings in this series and Baltimore is 5-1 ATS the L6 meetings here in South Florida. In Poe we trust.

NFL Pick: Ravens +6½


Carolina Panthers -3½ at New Orleans Saints
Cam Newton (21-15 ATS on Road, 5-0 ATS this season) and the Panthers (10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS, beat Cowboys on Thanksgiving) head to The Big Easy next Sunday to face Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, at Texans on Sunday) at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in Week 13 play. The last time these two met, the Panthers won 27-22 in Charlotte but failed to cover as 10-point favorites earlier this season while last year here in Nawlins, the Cats actually started this long-ass Regular Season Win Streak by beating up on the Saints, 41-10 as 9-point underdogs in Week 15. LB Luke Kuechly and the Panthers are 11-3 ATS in its L14 games overall Away at New Orleans and are the obvious call here.

NFL Pick: Panthers -3½


Seattle Seahawks -1½ at Minnesota Vikings (FOX, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST): Russell Wilson and the the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (5-5 SU, 3-6-1 ATS; at Vikings Sunday) head to TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis next Sunday to face Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings (7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS, at Falcons Sunday) in one of the better games on the slate for this rather dull batch of Week 13 games. When these two teams last met, the Seahawks won, 41-20 in 2013, covering as 13½-point chalks in Seattle while the last time these two played here in the Home of the Purple One—Prince Rogers Nelson—the Brad Childress-coached Vikings bopped the Seahawks, 35-9 as 10½-point favorites in 2009. But both of these franchises are vastly different than in 2009. The way Seattle has closed in the 2nd Half of the Regular Season these L3 season has given them a certain level of Expectation and Confidence, and sitting at .500 (5-5) heading in here with fear of not making the Postseason, expect the Seahawks and RB Thomas Rawls to somehow find a way to beat the Purple People Eaters in a low-scoring game.

NFL Pick: Seahawks -1½


Arizona Cardinals -5½ at St. Louis Rams (FOX, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST): Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald and the impressive Arizona Cardinals (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS, at 49ers on Sunday) head one Time Zone east (MST to CST) to the Gateway City of St. Louis next Sunday in Week 13 play to dance with the Rams (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, at Ravens Sunday) in an NFC West date which looks like it may only have meaning to the visitors by the time it’s played. When these two met earlier this year, the Rams upset the Cardinals at Home in Glendale, 24-22 as 7-point underdogs while in this meeting last season here at the Edward Jones Dome, Arizona won 12-6 as a 6-point underdog. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in the L5 overall in this series—that lone ATS Loss that aforementioned last meeting—while Arizona and underrated Head Coach Bruce Arians (21-11-1 ATS) are also 4-1 ATS the L5 here in Missouri. Despite the emergence of Rookie RB Todd Gurley, the St. Louis Rams are frustrated and falling apart like they usually do right about this about every Regular Season. History repeats itself of Wall Street as well as it does on the Gridiron.

NFL Pick: Cardinals -5½


Atlanta Falcons -1½ at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS, vs. Vikings on Sunday) welcome Rookie QB Jameis Winston and the suddenly upstart Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS, at Colts on Sunday) in this NFC South Week 13 affair from Raymond James Stadium next Sunday afternoon will matter to both sides. When these two met earlier this year in Atlanta, the Buccaneers defeated the Falcons outright as 8-point chalks, 23-20—which started this recent Falcons slide—and covered ATS as 7-point favorites while in this meeting last season in Tampa, Atlanta won 27-17 laying 3. The Falcons are 3-2 ATS the L5 in this series and the way they have been playing, expect money to come in on the host Bucs here and for them to possibly be favorites come kick off in 12 days. Heavy lean Swashbucklers.


New York Jets at New York Giants -1½
Considered a Home game for the New York Giants (5-5 SU, 6-3-1 ATS, at Redskins on Sunday), this inter-conference, inter-city affair from MetLife Stadium next Sunday will actually be a very important game in the entire context of the NFL and the ultimate Playoff scenario with both teams in the thick of the race. When these two last played here in 2011, the Jets won 29-14 and covered as 3-point favorites and Darrelle Revis and New York AFC is a spotless 5-0 ATS in the L5 meetings but it seems the Jets are descending for landing while the G-Men are just getting serious about the they always do about this time. This seems like a bad spot for the Jets and this should be great entertainment with Odell Beckham Jr. showing again why supreme Speed and Athleticism matter in sports. Lean New York NFC from this distance.


Denver Broncos -6 at San Diego Chargers
Philip Rivers and the Chargers (2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS, at Jaguars on Sunday) welcome QB Brock Osweiler and the Denver Broncos (8-2 SU, 6-3-1 ATS, vs. Patriots on Sunday Night Football) to beautiful Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego for this Week 13 AFC West non-battle. Even though it will be Week 13, this will be the first meeting of the season—they play again in Week 17 in Denver—and when they met last year here, the Broncos won 22-10 and covered ATS as 4-point favorites and Denver is 4-0 ATS the L4 trips here in this series and the easy call here as Osweiler has all the tools to be a solid NFL QB and will now grow weekly with Uncle Peyton possibly finally put out to pasture after trying to push Father Time for one more year—like the Los Angeles Lakers Kobe Bryant—and finding out that Father Time gives Zero Flips about what professional athletes and their Agents and Egos want. Sorry. My bad. Better try to be more friendly for the Holidays. Ho, ho ho. Now go away.

NFL Pick: Broncos -6


Kansas City Chiefs -2½ at Oakland Raiders (CBS, NFL RedZone, 4:05 p.m. EST/1:05 p.m. PST): Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS; vs. Bills on Sunday) head west to the Coliseum in Oakland to face David Carr and the Raiders (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS, at Titans on Sunday) in this huge AFC West game for both teams. This is the first Regular Season meeting between the two—they meet again at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 17—and Eric Berry and the Chiefs are 3-1 ATS the L4 against Oakland and and an impressive 9-3 ATS the L12 in this series on the Road here on Oaktown. Andy Reid’s Chiefs may be the most underrated team in the NFL while the Silver and Black seem to be reverting to their old ways.

NFL Pick: Chiefs -2½


Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots -9½
The New England Patriots (10-0 SU, 5-2-3 ATS; at Broncos on Sunday Night Football) and QB Tom Brady welcome the fading Philadelphia Eagles (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS; lost to Lions on Thanksgiving, 45-14) to Gillette Stadium where the hosts have been dominant of late. The last time these two met, the Patriots won 38-20 in 2011, easily covering as 3-point favorites while in the last meeting here in New England, the Patriots won 31-28 but the hosts were giving one of the highest number of points in game in NFL Point Spread history—25—in 2007, failing to cover by 22 points. The Eagles are 7-2 ATS the L9 in this series but if you take Philadelphia and QB Mark Sanchez you may be looking at the number and not reality. Ne England will do a Rain Dance on the Eagles head, dooming Head Coach Chip Kelly even more as Playoff hopes slip in a high-scoring game in which New England, as beat up as they are (Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman out for Regular Season, Danny Amendola banged up) may almost go Over the posted Total themselves, likely scoring between 37-45 against this very paltry Philly Defense.

NFL Pick: Patriots -9½


Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers -6½ -120 
This Primetime game from Heinz Field in Pittsburgh next Sunday night between QB Matt Hasselbeck and the host Colts (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, at Falcons on Sunday) and Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4 SU, 5-3-2 ATS, at Seahawks on Sunday) in this massive AFC game with both potential divisional (Colts) and Wild Card (Steelers and Colts) implications. The last time these two talented and entertaining AFC sides met, the Steelers won 51-34 here in Naptown last year getting 4½ points. This one should be good TV and although it will be tough, Indianapolis could definitely go into The Steel City and steal this one. It seems like points will be scored, weather and crappy Heinz Field playing surface be damned.


Dallas Cowboys -3 Even at Washington Redskins
This Advanced Point Spread was released before Thanksgiving and the injury (again) to QB Tony Romo (Collarbone, Out for Season) of the Dallas Cowboys (2-8 SU, 2-6 ATS, L7, Lost 33-14 to the Panthers in Arlington on Thanksgiving), so expect a No Line or a near Pick ‘Em situation when the dust finally clears. Here in Landover, Maryland at FedEx Field against the Washington Redskins (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, vs. Giants on Sunday) in a big game for the Redskins possibly in terms of hanging on to small Garnet and Gold thread, it seems the hosts are the better team and are a better value at whatever number with Dallas fixin’ to implode after realizing 2015 wasn’t what they thought it was. Waaaah. When these two met last year in the Regular Season here in Landover, Dallas rolled to a 44-17 victory, easily covering as 6-point chalks in Week 17. The Redskins are 8-2 ATS the L10 in this series and a powerful 7-1 ATS the L8 here at Home vs. America’s Former Team.

NFL Pick: Redskins +3 to -3


Bears -7 Even over 49ers, Bengals -7 over Browns, Jaguars +2½ over Titans, Ravens +6½ over Dolphins, Panthers -3½ over Saints, Seahawks -1½ over Vikings, Cardinals -5½ over Rams, Chiefs -2½ over Raiders, Patriots -9½ over Eagles, Redskins +3 over Cowboys (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)


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