NFL Betting: Week 12 Trends Look Good for Revenge – Or Do They?

Jason Lake

Wednesday, November 25, 2015 6:24 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2015 6:24 PM UTC

There are five teams on the Week 12 NFL odds board looking for revenge against divisional rivals. The betting trends are in their favor, but which ones will cash in our NFL picks?

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 24: 43-37-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 24-31 Total

What's the tastiest side dish at the Thanksgiving table? Revenge, of course. This holiday is all about gathering with your loved ones, appreciating the bountiful harvest you've put on the table, and getting even with your sworn enemies. So it is on the gridiron, where five NFL teams will try to atone for losing to their divisional rivals earlier this year.

That motivation can do a lot for a team's profit margin. According to trend guru Walter Cherepinksy, clubs who are in this situation have gone 241-209 ATS (53.6 percent) since 2002. Well, hello there. As always, you could just carpet-bomb all the teams in question, or you could be a bit more selective when you're making your NFL picks this week. Guess which approach we're going to recommend.

The Selective Approach
You're a good guesser. Naturally, we're going to break this trend down by head coach – or rather, Mr. Cherepinsky has already done it for us. Let's start by looking at the Vindictive V on our Week 12 NFL odds board:

Chicago +8 at Green Bay (Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
N.Y. Giants at Washington +2.5 (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
Miami +3.5 at N.Y. Jets (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
Arizona at San Francisco +10 (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX)
Baltimore +2.5 at Cleveland (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Next, the career ATS records in this situation for the five head coaches involved:
John Fox, Chicago 9-5
Jay Gruden, Washington 1-1
Dan Campbell, Miami N/A
Jim Tomsula, San Francisco 0-1
John Harbaugh, Baltimore 1-6

Lovely. Three of these coaches are so new at this, they haven't built up the body of work we need for our betting purposes. But you can see the numbers for Fox (good) and Harbaugh (bad). This is information we can use.

No Photos Please
As difficult as it's been for Harbaugh's Ravens in these revenge games, Monday night's game against the Browns could be even tougher. Both QB Joe Flacco (knee) and RB Justin Forsett (arm) were put on injured reserve after last week's brutal 16-13 win over the St. Louis Rams (+3 away). Matt Schaub will make his first start since 2013 in Flacco's place. The Browns, meanwhile, will start Josh McCown instead of Johnny Manziel. That should be good news for Cleveland bettors.

Supporting Fox and the Bears on Turkey Day might be worth a shot, too. The Bears are classic divisional dogs of seven or more, and they're 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after losing 17-15 to the Denver Broncos (–2.5 at home) on Sunday. Green Bay won't be an easy get, though, not with the return of several injured players to the Packers offense. For now, we'll stick with recommending the Browns, and may the prolate spheroid be with you this holiday season.

Free NFL Pick: Take the Browns -2.5 (-120) at Pinnacle

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