NFL Betting: Week 11 NFL Picks

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, November 14, 2013 2:08 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 14, 2013 2:08 PM UTC

While it’s still early in the week, there is value emerging in the NFL Odds for Week 11. With sportsbooks now offering lines for all matchups, which games do we thing deserve an extra look before placing our NFL picks?

This week should be the most entertaining regular season week of football to date, as several potential playoff teams square off against one another. I have found a couple of early week odds that I think you should jump on before the value disappears later in the week.

Be sure to take a look at our:

NFL Picks: Week 11 Value Picks

NFL Picks: Week 11 Fades & Games to Avoid

Lions vs. Steelers

A week after edging out the Bears, the Lions head on the road into Pittsburgh to play the Steelers. The NFL odds have the Lions as -1 favorites against the Steelers in Pittsburgh, with a total of 47 ½. Even though the Steelers have played much better football at home this season, I see the Lions as too big of a mismatch for the Steelers here.

Detroit’s pass rush should have a good game here against the Steelers’ offensive line, and even though they have underperformed this season getting sacks, the Detroit defense is still very capable of putting pressure onto Ben Roethlisberger in this game.

The Lions’ offense is also clicking right now much better than the Steelers have been. Despite LeVeon Bell’s emergence, the Steelers still struggle to run the ball some, and Roethlisberger is not in a position to throw for 400 yards every week and carry the team. Those days are over, and I don’t think every one has realized it yet. 

Although they don’t play one another very often, the Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall against the Steelers, and Pittsburgh is only 3-5-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Once again I think Pittsburgh is overvalued at home and I will gladly back the Lions with my NFL picks

My Pick: Lions -1


49ers vs. Saints 

The NFL Odds have the Saints as -3 favorites this week against the visiting 49ers, and I could not like the Saints more here against an overvalued Niners. The Saints have been virtually unbeatable at home over the last several seasons, as they have started this year 5-0 ATS at home. They are also 22-8 ATS at home since 2010, making them the best home team ATS in the last three and a half seasons. 

The Niners are hurting right now on offense, and going into the Super Dome is going to really test their offensive firepower. They got shut down against the Panthers at home last week, and the Saints may have less of a defense than Carolina, but they have twice the offense. San Francisco also might be without their best skill player, Vernon Davis, as he is still nursing a concussion.

The 49ers are 2-6 SU in their last eight, and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games overall against the Saints. Along with that, San Francisco is only 1-4 SU in their last five trips to New Orleans. Even though the 49ers have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall against the Saints, that was partially because of the bounty-gate year, and the Saints have a whole different team now. I see the Saints eventually getting out to a lead in this game and for the Niners to not have quite enough to come back on the road. I’m laying the -3 now while I have it, because I see the Saints being bet up some this week. 

My Pick: Saints -3


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