NFL Betting: Week 11 Game-by-Game Over/Under Picks

Nikki Adams

Thursday, November 13, 2014 9:01 PM GMT

As we approach Week 11 NFL betting, we turn to over-under NFL lines in search of value NFL  picks. Find out which side of the coin we're backing after careful analysis.


Week 10 NFL Betting Over-Under Recap
We had a positive turnout last week with our over-under NFL picks, managing to stay in the "green" so to speak with our 7-6 record, thanks largely down to the Eagles, Packers and Broncos practically singlehandedly dropping almost enough points to clear the NFL totals set by bookies in their respective games. Overall, we are now 62-36-1 with our over-under picks through the last seven weeks. So join us for what will hopefully be another brilliant week of predicting NFL over-under picks.Let's get to it.

 

Bills vs. Dolphins O/U 42.5
The Buffalo Bills have consistently cashed on the UNDER this season, save for two occasions – a 37-22 loss to the Patriots and a 43-23 win over the Jets. On the road, they are just 1-3 in over-under betting. Miami Dolphins are 4-5 over-under this season and the UNDER has cashed in six of their last home games. Overall NFL betting trends reveal the UNDER has cashed in six of Bills' last eight games on the road to the Dolphins. Everything about this game suggest the UNDER 42.5 is the savvy NFL pick, including their last meeting, which the Bills won 29-10 in week 2 NFL betting.

NFL Picks: Under 42.5

 

Falcons vs. Panthers O/U 46.5
NFL betting trends reveal the UNDER has cashed in 13 of the last 19 meetings between this pair in Carolina. Last season, both games between these divisional rivals were set to the tune of 46.5-points, each time with the UNDER cashing – Carolina beat Atlanta 21-20 on the road and 34-10 at home. This is the first meeting between this pair this season. Bookies have revived the exact same total of 46.5-points. Contrary to all the aforementioned trends both pundits and bettors are almost unanimously backing the OVER 46.5 for this game – midweek sportsbook reports reveal almost 98% consensus on the OVER. Panthers are 6-4 in over-under betting, although largely down to being on the receiving end of blowouts. At home, they are only  2-3 in over-under betting. Falcons, meanwhile, are 1-4 in over-under betting on the road and just 3-6 in over-under betting on the season.

NFL Picks: Under 46.5

 

Bengals vs. Saints O/U 50.5
New Orleans Saints boast a 7-2 over-under record for the season, which includes a 3-1 over-under record at home. Since 2013, they are 7-5 in over-under betting at home. Cincinnati Bengals slipped to a 4-5 over-under record on the season (1-3 away) behind a humiliating 24-3 defeat to the Cleveland Browns last week. It was the second of their last four games in which offense was stagnant – week 7 they lost 27-0 at Indianapolis. Offense is clearly struggling on the road, which suggest the savvy NFL pick could be the UNDER rather than the OVER 50.5 that is garnering the bulk of the money coming down the wire at early doors. Indeed, the UNDER has cashed in four of Cincinnati's last six games against the Saints and in five of their last seven road games altogether.

NFL Picks: Under 50.5

 

Broncos vs. Rams O/U 50.5
Denver Broncos are after a 41-17 win over the Oakland Raiders in week 10 NFL betting, which included a 5-touchdown account by Peyton Manning. It was the third game this season in which the Broncos scored 40-plus points, as well it was the fourth straight Bronco's game to go OVER 50-points. Overall, Broncos are 7-2 in over-under betting this season. St. Louis are 5-4 in over-under betting this season. If Peyton Manning and Broncos continue on the verve and swagger they've enjoyed for most of the season, this game should cash on the OVER.

NFL Picks: Over 50.5

 

Texans vs. Browns O/U 41.5
Houston Texans have cashed on the OVER in four of their last five games on the road. On the season, they are 6-3 in over-under betting. It's the entire opposite case for the Browns. Cleveland are 4-5 in over-under betting behind a five-game stretch with the UNDER cashing, including the one-sided 24-3 win over the Steelers. Something is going to have to give when they collide. With news Adrian Foster may be playing, the OVER 41.5 looks increasingly more appealing than the UNDER on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Over 41.5

Vikings  vs. Bears O/U 46.5
It's anybody's guess how this game will unfold. The Bears were embarrassed royally at Lambeau Field last week. Aaron Rodger and the Packers unapologetically dropped 55 points on the Bears, singlehandedly clearing the 53.5-point total set for the game on week 10's NFL odds board as they went on to win 55-14. How the Bears will recover from that is yet to be determined. Their season is in tatters and they seem to be losing the will to compete. They are 0-3 SU and ATS at Soldier Field, and 1-2 in over-under betting, although not down to any exceptional offense from their so-called potent weapons. The Bears have only mustered up a maximum of 20-points at home in any one game; their average point production at home is 17-points per game. Vikings are 3-6 in over-under betting this season, 1-4 in over-under betting on the road.

NFL Picks: Under 46.5

 

Seahawks vs. Chiefs O/U 42.0
Seattle Seahawks seem to have worked out some of their offensive kinks over the last two weeks. Twice they've dropped 30-plus points, albeit against lesser teams – Raiders and Giants. Overall, they are 6-3 in over-under betting. Largely down to Kansas City's 2-7 over-under record on the season, bookies have set a rather low total of 42-points for this game on the NFL odds page. Seattle though is a tough team to contain particularly when they boast the league's top rushing offense. For that matter, Chief's fifth ranked rushing offense is something to consider as well. With both teams looking to outdo one another on the ground, this game could defy the NFL odds and go OVER 42 in a heartbeat.

NFL Picks: Over 42.0

 

Niners -4.0 Giants O/U 44.0
San Francisco beat New Orleans Saints last week 27-24 in overtime to improve to 4-5 in over-under betting this season. On the road, three of their five games have cashed on the OVER. New York Giants are 6-3 in over-under betting this season, largely down to a defense that allows 27.4-points per game this season. Niners are ninth in rushing offense with 122.2 yards per game. The Giants 32nd ranked rushing defense will have no answers to the Niners on the ground, assuming the Niners execute it to success. What's more, Giants are leaking on average 27.4-point per game.

NFL Picks: Over 44.0

 

Bucs vs. Redskins O/U 45.5
The NFL betting public is divided almost 50-50 between the over-under on this game. Hardly surprising given the less than inspiring offenses. That being said, Redskins offense just received a boost with the return of RGIII a fortnight ago, albeit in a 29-26 loss to the Vikings; and the Bucs have reverted back to Josh McCown. However, the real reason why we're leaning towards the OVER on our NFL picks is the shoddy defenses of both camps. Tampa's defense is leaking 30.2-points while Redskins are allowing 25.4-points per game. With such undisciplined play on the defensive-side of the ball, this game could just burst at the seams.

NFL Picks: Over 45.5

 

Raiders vs. Chargers O/U 44.5
The total has gone OVER in four of Oakland's last five games, prompting the NFL betting public to back the OVER 44.5-point total set across sports betting exchanges for this clash. Raiders have deposited some plucky accounts, particularly against the Seahawks a fortnight ago. Defense, however, is their undoing, allowing 28-points per game so far this season. Chargers have gone 4-5 in over-under betting, their most forgettable outing a 37-0 loss to the Dolphins. Chargers will be looking to bounce back from that loss after a week 10 bye. They are 2-2 in over-under betting at home.

NFL Picks: Over 44.5

 

Lions  vs. Cardinals O/U 41.0
The Lions are 2-7 in over-under betting this season while the Cardinals are 3-6 in over-under betting this season. Both sides boast a stingy defense: Lions are allowing 15.8-points per game while the Cardinals are allowing just 18.9-points per game. The loss of Carson Palmer on offense is another factor to consider in this game. All in all, the UNDER appears to be the smart NFL pick here.

NFL Picks: Under 41.0

 

Eagles vs. Packers O/U 54.5
After the phenomenal offensive displays by each team in week 10 NFL betting, it's no wonder sportsbooks are recording consensus OVER bets for this clash. Eagles are accounting for 31-points per game while the Packers are accounting for an average of 30.8-points per game. Defenses are almost identical with the Eagles allowing 22-points and the Packers allowing 22.8-points per game. If both Sanchez and Rodgers live up to their week 10 performances, this should be a gaudy affair that goes OVER 54.5 quite significantly.

NFL Picks: Over 54.5

 

Patriots vs. Colts O/U 57.5 
If this game doesn't bust the OVER 57.5, colour the world shocked. NFL bettors are piling onto the OVER in anticipation of a virtual shootout between two offensive-minded outfits. Both the Patriots and Colts are 7-2 in over-under betting this season, all while offenses are averaging 30-plus points. What's more, five of the last five meetings between these two heavyweights have gone OVER totals set across sportsbook platforms. Need more be said? The OVER has to be the correct NFL pick, if not the popular pick in NFL betting circles.

NFL Picks: Over 57.5

 

Steelers vs. Titans O/U 47.0
Jets caught the Steelers napping last week to hang a 20-13 loss on them. It's highly unlikely the Steelers will be caught out so badly when they descend on the Titans. Steelers are 6-4 in over-under betting this season, all while averaging 26.1-points per game. On the defensive side of the ball, they are allowing 23.9-points per game. Titans are 3-6 in over-under betting, largely down to a depressing offense that is averaging a measly 16-points per game. On the road, the Steelers aren't as lethal as they are at home, with four of their last five road games cashing UNDER market expectations. Take the UNDER on your NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Under 47.0