NFL Betting: Week 1 NFL Power Picks

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, September 7, 2013 4:21 PM GMT

SJ is back with his NFL picks this season and he's just beggin' you to hop aboard the money train that starts in September and arrives in February.

Swinger's Record (0-0, +0.00 units) *Each wager is graded from 1 to 5 units*

It's all shiny and new kids. That's right we are back and looking to bust your bookmaker wide open. There are those that believe if you wager, all games should be the same amount regardless of how much you like a side or a total in your NFL picks. But I disagree with that. I feel some games are worth a few bucks because your lean is only slight. But then there are those sides or totals that you feel are just low hanging fruit, ripe and ready for plucking.

That's why my plays vary in unit size. If you're comfortable betting an average of $100 per game then a one unit play should be $100. However, If I feel a game is as close to a lock as there can reasonably be (and remember kids, there are no mortal locks in sports gambling regardless of what Joe Scamdicapper tells you) then I'm going to tell you to close your eyes, have faith and drop a nickel on that bad boy. I promise nothing because one cannot guarantee an outcome on a series of events that has yet to occur. However, I will tell you that I have lived and I have learned. I do my homework, I listen to opinions I respect and practice sound money management. And if all that fails I've got a magic monkey who throws a mean dart.

With that said, welcome to my little corner of SBR, make yourself comfortable and become a regular visitor. Remember, this is the first week of the season and anything is possible. All plays will be one unit because all we know about these teams is what we recall from last season. But that's in the past, things change so let's move on to the present and bang our books as we peruse the NFL odds.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions

In the interest of full disclosure I'm higher than Lindsay Lohan on the Lions this year. I love the addition of Reggie Bush in the backfield and I think Stafford and Megatron blow up again this year. Conversely, Minnesota's AP is always a threat to take it to the house but I'm not concerned about Ponder's ability to drive the Vikings down the field against a defense that was ranked in the top half of total yards allowed last season. Once again, it's Week 1 guys so let's not pretend we know more than we do. As of this writing I am infatuated with the Lions offense so, until they cause me to rethink my premise, I will continue to believe that Matt Stafford will be the most prolific QB this season and Calvin Johnson will see the endzone more often than the goalpost.

Play Detroit -4 (-120) in your NFL picks for 1 unit at WilliamHill.com

[gameodds]16/226877/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Call me Chalky Von Chalkowitz but I think the faves are going to cash in Week 1. Can you imagine a world (every time I hear that I think of the deep voiced guy who does the movie trailers) where the Chiefs are 4 point road chalk in NFL odds? Well, Jamaal Charles is back and this team has a different look and feel to it. The Jags, on the other hand, have Blaine Gabbert and a mileage heavy Maurice Jones-Drew. Lay it and like it.

Chiefs -4 at WilliamHill.com for 1 unit.

[gameodds]16/226873/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

The Woodman's Corner (0-0, +0.00units) - Guest Handicapper

I say tomato and he says tom-ah-to. I like the Lions and he likes the Vikings +5 at Bet365.com.