Sure, the New England Patriots are amazing. But they're giving up more than 14 points to Washington on the Week 9 NFL odds board. That's just way too many points.
Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 6: 27-21-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 18-27 Total
It's time once again for the biggest red-carpet event in sports betting, the BeeVee Awards. This is where we name one lucky team the Best Value on our NFL odds board, and as usual, everyone's come dressed up for the occasion. It's like they all want to relocate to Los Angeles or something. Yes, we're looking at you, St. Louis Rams, wearing your original L.A. colors. You know you want to move back West.
Let's get this party started. Here are the BeeVee nominees for Week 9:
Oakland +6 vs. Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
St. Louis +2 vs. Minnesota (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
Washington +14.5 vs. New England (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
Green Bay at Carolina +2.5 (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
N.Y. Giants at Tampa Bay +2.5 (4:05 p.m. ET, FOX)
And the winner is: Washington! Here to accept the award is team owner Daniel Snyder, who... what's that? Apparently Mr. Snyder's corporate jet is stuck in the hangar at Dulles airport. We'll make sure he gets this award, along with some fresh batteries for the door opener. Someone check if he needs AA or AAA.
You're So 2007
On many levels, Washington (3-4 SU and ATS) is one of those teams where you feel a bit unclean for betting on them. But it's hard to pass up a situation where you're getting 14.5 points, even if it's against the consensus best team in the league in the Patriots (7-0 SU, 4-2-1 ATS). Speaking of consensus, apparently the sharps don't mind putting the Pats in their Week 9 NFL picks. Over 83 percent of the action is landing on New England at press time.
Maybe that's not sharp action, though. It is Friday already as we go to press, so the public has had at least some time to get those wallets and/or purses out. And we all know how much sharps love to bet on double-digit dogs. Perhaps most importantly, the Patriots are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games when laying over 14 points. It's not easy to beat a team by more than two touchdowns, not even Washington.
There was a time when the Patriots were worth eating all that chalk. That was during their undefeated 2007 regular season, when they crushed Washington 52-7 as 15-point home faves. This year's model might be the best New England has put out since then, but it's not that good. And even during that magical 2007 run, the Pats started out 5-0 ATS as massive favorites before dropping their next five games at –14.5 or higher. It's all about buying low and selling high, and this week, we're buying in on Washington.
Free NFL Pick: Take Washington +14.5 (–115) at Bovada