NFL Betting: Wary Underdogs To Avoid In Week 4

Nikki Adams

Sunday, October 2, 2016 6:10 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 2, 2016 6:10 PM UTC

Underdogs smashed it in week 3, with several winning outright and covering. Predictably, bettors pound several sizeable underdogs in week 4 but should you consider these plays on your NFL picks too?


For a second straight week the Rams. Bills and Browns enter as the sizeable underdogs on the NFL odds board. The former couple pulled off both the SU win and the cover in week 3, while the latter very nearly pulled off the double whammy too on the NFL betting floor, only to miss a field goal attempt in the final play of regular time and go on to settle for just the cover as the +10.5 road underdog in overtime.

Seeing as this triplet is back on the disfavored list for week 4, there are those NFL bettors that might fancy one or another to once again punch above its weight class and defy the NFL odds. We think otherwise and here’s why.

 Rams +9 vs. Cardinals

The Cardinals and Rams have one thing in common, they both beat the Buccaneers behind offensive-minded accounts. The Cardinals did the job in week 2, ripping the Bucs apart in a 40-7 win at University Stadium. To date, that is their lone win on the season. The Rams, meanwhile, found their offensive rhythm in Tampa Bay last week en route to a 37-32 triumph. It marked the first touchdown scored by the Rams on the season.

The Problem with this pair is we really don’t know what they are about. What is their identity in 2016? Three games in and the accounts by each side from week to week couldn’t be more different. If there’s one thing that has us leaning away from the tempting underdogs (Rams hang on +7.5 to +9 depending on your choice sportsbook), it’s the Cardinals and their credentials. This is a much better team than the 1-2 SU record would suggest. Just as they bounced back in week 2 to defeat the Bucs they should be raring to go in week 4 after the humiliation they endured in Buffalo. The Rams, meanwhile, are playing a second road game and, once again, back-to-back upsets – on the road, no less – is a tough ask.

NFL Picks: Cardinals –10 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Bills vs. Patriots -6.5

The last game without Tom Brady, last chance for a team to hand Bill Belichick and the seemingly infallible Patriots a defeat. Given the Bills just defeated a highly fancied Arizona at home, the Bills certainly leap off the page as a viable NFL pick to consider. Not only are bettors pounding the Bills to cover as the +9 underdogs (or thereabouts depending on your choice sportsbook) but also they seem to be shading the Bills on the money line for the out-and-out upset.

Trading as high as +270 on the NFL odds board to win straight up Buffalo definitely offers value to pull off the upset. However, it remains to be seen whether the Bills can pull off back-to-back upset. Just last week NFL betting experts and pundits alike were spouting doom and gloom for Rex Ryan, practically giving him the sack on behalf of the organisation.

Two things spring to mind a) betting against the Patriots at the Foxboro is more often than not an exercise in futility, and b) how good were the Bills in week 3, really? How much of the win over Arizona was down to the Bills?

Not a whole lot. Not to take everything away from the Bills, but, let’s face it, the Cardinals were simply atrocious on both sides of the ball. The defense played its worst game of the season, so too did Carson Palmer. Heck, the veteran quarterback couldn’t distinguish between his teammates and the Bills for all the interceptions he threw. Bills were abysmal in week 1 and, equally so, in week 2. One win isn’t enough to convince us the Bills are the team to hand Belichick his first loss at home of the season.

NFL Picks: Patriots -3.5 (-105)
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage

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