NFL Betting Value Found in Picking Division WInners

Matthew Jordan

Monday, December 1, 2014 7:56 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 1, 2014 7:56 PM UTC

Here we are entering Week 14 of the 2014 NFL regular season and still haven't had a division clinched yet. The biggest lead in any division is only two games. Here we break down each race and give you our expected winner with Bovada NFL odds.

AFC East
The odds for the East are off the board because the Miami Dolphins (6-5) play on Monday Night Football against the terrible New York Jets. Presumably Miami will win that game to get within two games of first-place New England along with Buffalo. The Patriots (9-3) have won the East 10 of the past 11 years and it's going to take a major collapse to not do so a sixth straight season.

The Patriots currently hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over Buffalo thanks to a Week 6 win and they host the Bills in Week 17. Miami beat visiting New England in Week 1 and visits Foxboro in Week 15. So the Fins have a shot here if they win Monday, beat visiting Baltimore in Week 14 and then can pull the upset in New England in Week 15. Miami also likely needs the Pats to fall this Sunday at San Diego, which is very possible. However, the Patriots opened as 3.5-point favorites on NFL odds.

NFL free pick: New England wins the East with  Miami No. 2.

AFC North
Certainly the most entertaining division in the NFL this season with every team at least two games over .500. However, the Ravens,  Steelers and Browns were all beaten in Week 13 -- Baltimore and Pittsburgh in upset at fashion at home. They are all 7-5 and will need plenty of help to catch Cincinnati (8-3-1). Forget the Ravens because they were swept by the Bengals. The Browns might be turning to Johnny Manziel now. It's probably only Pittsburgh that can knock off the Bengals. The Steelers visit Cincinnati on Sunday as opening 3.5-point underdogs on NFL odds. The teams play again Week 17. The Bengals are heavy -500 division favorites at Bovada.

NFL free pick: Cincinnati wins the North for the second straight season.

AFC South
No odds on this division as it's widely presumed that Indianapolis (8-4) will hold off Houston (6-6). The Colts already hold the head-to-head tiebreaker and host the Texans in Week 15. Indy is at Cleveland this week as a 3-point favorite on NFL odds. The Texans probably have to win out to have a shot. They are 4.5-point favorites this week at Jacksonville.

NFL free pick: Indy wins the division unless Andrew Luck gets injured.

AFC West
The Broncos (9-3) are the biggest division favorites on the board at -1000 and they likely salted the West away with Sunday night's 29-16 win at Kansas City, Denver's sixth straight victory over the rival Chiefs. That all but eliminates Kansas City (7-5). San Diego (8-4) looms as a threat. The Bolts are 3.5-point home dogs this week vs. New England and then host Denver next week. Win them both and then things get interesting. The Chargers are +650 at Bovada to win the West. Good luck beating Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in back-to-back weeks, though.

NFL free pick: Denver wins the West again.

NFC East
The Philadelphia Eagles (9-3) won a huge one in Dallas on Thanksgiving to take control of the East, and Philly is -400 to repeat with Dallas as +250 on NFL odds. However, things can change very quickly. The Cowboys (8-4) play at Chicago on Thursday and then host Philadelphia in Week 15. The Eagles have a very tough one Sunday as a home pick'em against surging Seattle. Both the Eagles and Cowboys finish Week 17 on the road.

NFL free pick: Eagles win the East by beating Dallas again in two weeks.

NFC North
Green Bay (9-3) looks like the best team in the NFL right now, at least at home. Could the Pack get caught in a letdown game next Monday at home against Atlanta? Green Bay is -11.5 on NFL odds. Detroit (8-4) does have a favorable schedule with games this week vs. Tampa Bay and next vs. Minnesota before closing at Chicago and then Green Bay. This race could come down to that Week 17 matchup at Lambeau, where the Lions never win. The Packers are -700 division favorites at sportsbooks.

NFL free pick: Packers win the North, but Lions get a wild-card spot.

NFC South
What a delicious mess with Atlanta and New Orleans tied for first and 5-7 and Carolina (3-8-1) not even out of it. The Saints weren't supposed to win Sunday in Pittsburgh yet ended a three-game losing streak. The Falcons weren't supposed to win Sunday at home against Arizona but did rather easily. The Falcons are 11.5-point dogs for Week 14 at Green Bay and the Saints are -9.5 at home against Carolina. Presumably then New Orleans will have a one-game edge. The Saints host the Falcons in Week 16. New Orleans is the -250 division favorite.

NFL free pick: New Orleans wins the South with an 8-8 record.

NFC West
Two weeks ago this race looked over with Arizona holding a three-game lead over Seattle. Now it's one and the Cardinals offense looks broken. Arizona (9-3) has a very tough remaining schedule: vs. Kansas City, at St. Louis, vs. Seattle, at San Francisco. But then so do the Seahawks (8-4): at Philly, vs. San Francisco, at Arizona, vs. St. Louis. Seattle is the -140 division favorite with Arizona at +150.

NFL free pick: Seahawks win the division thanks to a season sweep of the Cards.

Don't miss out on the action, visit our NFL picks page for all this week14 games.

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