NFL Betting Value in Fading the Public's Week 5 Picks

Jordan Sharp

Monday, September 29, 2014 3:34 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 29, 2014 3:34 PM UTC

The public didn’t do too badly in Week 4, but they were still on some pretty bad plays. They lost big time with the Falcons as NFL Odds favorites on the road in Week 4, but whom will they blindly back in Week 5? Here are some possibilities. 

Rams vs. Eagles
The Rams are fresh off their bye week, and while it remains to be seen who their quarterback will be this week, the rest should have done them some good. Heading into Philadelphia however might not be as hard of a challenge as some suspected. The Eagles are really banged up on their offensive line, and it could affect this line. The Week 5 NFL opening odds have the Eagles as a full -7 favorite, with a total of 48 ½. Assuming the Eagles will still be missing several offensive linemen, the Rams could take advantage. They have a very good defensive front seven, and Nick Foles might not be able to get things going when he is being hit and hurried all game. On top of that, LeSean McCoy had a horrible game again against the 49ers, and if he isn’t getting blocks, this Eagle offense is going down hill quickly. I would be very weary of anyone betting on Philly this week, even at home.

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Bills vs. Lions
Buffalo didn’t have a great game against the Texans this past week, but this week against the Lions could bring them better fortune. However I think the public will be all over the Lions. While it’s not a play, or even guaranteed, I do think the public will jump in on the Lions’ NFL Odds of -7, with a total of 44 ½. Buffalo has a pretty good defense, and while the Lions’ defense is also pretty solid, they are beatable. With EJ Manuel, a mobile quarterback, the Bills’ offense gives them the ability to counter the Lions’ pass rush. Their run defense might be another story, but if Manuel can throw accurately on the run, he may keep the Bills within one score. This could prevent the Lions from covering, and while I doubt the line has much value, the public will almost surely be on the Lions for their Week 5 NFL picks.

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Jets vs. Chargers
If my predictions are correct this week, the public will be loving the -7 NFL Odds, because not only are the two lines above at -7, but the Chargers are also a -7 favorite this week against the Jets. Something tells me the NFL Betting public will be all over the Chargers after their blow out win against the Jaguars. The Jets may not be worth a bet right now even if the public is all over the Chargers, but Geno Smith can’t play much worse than he did last week. If he can get things together this week, and the Jets can get their running game going, this could actually be an interesting game. I think that everyone will jump on the Chargers to bet this line up another point or two from -7, and then the Jets may actually be worth a look. But right now the Jets are pretty much dead to bettors. Going across the country is going to be hard enough, but their ability to cover this game could be strong if Smith has a bounce back performance. Don’t fall in love with the Chargers.

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