NFL Betting Value in Fading the Public's Week 4 Picks

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, September 23, 2014 5:14 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 23, 2014 5:14 PM UTC

NFL Week 3 was a crazy and lower scoring week, with a ton of underdogs winning outright and/or covering. It was probably a bad week for the public, and this week might bring more of the same if they blindly back road favorites. Here are a few teams that the public might blindly back, giving you and I more value in the better play.

We highlight three matchups that look to fit this criteria, as well as my free picks for each based off of where the public cash will likely push the line.

Titans vs. Colts
After beating down the Jaguars on the road, the Colts head back home to play another AFC South opponent, the Titans. The Week 4 NFL openiong odds have the Colts as a -7 favorite, with a total of 45 ½. Even with their bad offensive play over the last two weeks, the Titans are not a team to underestimate. Their defense is one of the better units in the entire NFL, and the Colts’ defense has not been great to start the season. The bets are already flying in on the Colts, and I expect the public will follow suit later in the week. If the line starts to rise to -7 ½ or higher, the Titans may not be a bad play. If Jake Locker can get his stuff together, Tennessee might have value. In two games against the Colts in his career, Locker has thrown for 370 yards, two touchdowns and two picks. If he can limit or eliminate the turnovers, the Titans will cover the line in this game.

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Dolphins vs. Raiders
The Dolphins got beat down by the Chiefs at home in Week 3, and now they have to travel all the way across the country to play the Raiders in Oakland. Even though the Raiders don’t have a win yet, they have the ability to win this game. They played the Patriots tough for four quarters last week, and even though their young offense is still limiting their upside, if they figure it out, they could very easily cover at home versus Miami. The NFL Odds have the Raiders as a +4 ½ home dog with a total of 41 points. I am all over the Raiders in this game, and I think the public will be laying the points with the Fins.

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Patriots vs. Chiefs
The opening odds for this week's Monday Night Football have the Chiefs as a +4 home underdog this week against the Patriots, this even after beating down the Dolphins in Week 3. The Patriots could barely squeeze by the Raiders at home in Week 3, failing to cover their lofty spread. The NFL Odds total is currently set at 45, but with the Patriots not playing as well as advertised, the Chiefs could very well cover this game, and/or win it. New England’s defense is by far the better unit, but the KC defense showed up much better this past week. If this turns into a defensive battle like the Week 3 Patriots game, the Chiefs have a ton of value. The public will surely be jumping on the Patriots with their NFL picks, but don’t underestimate the Chiefs here. If they can get Jamaal Charles back by a week from tonight, he will likely be key if the Chiefs cover. Wait for some line movement, but if the public jumps in on the Pats, it might allow for a nice value play on the home dogs.

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