NFL Betting Value in Fading the Public's Week 3 Picks

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, September 16, 2014 6:11 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 16, 2014 6:11 PM UTC

The week leading up to, and the Week 2 NFL action was one of the craziest weeks the NFL has even seen. What teams will the public blindly back in Week 3, and will there be value fading them?

Now with several injuries and situational changes to account for, there should be some value in the Week 3 NFL odds.


Raiders vs. Patriots
This one is probably the best current example of a team the pubic will blindly go after. Even after some of their defensive lapses early in the season, the Patriots are anywhere from -14 ½ to -16 home favorites against the Raiders. While the NFL odds are pretty close to what they should be, I’m sure the public will be all over the Pats. The Raiders have to travel all the way across the country, they have a rookie quarterback, and Maurice Jones-Drew is still looking questionable for Week 3, after missing this past week.

While it may not be a bad bet on paper, the Raiders are not that bad, and furthermore, it looks as if the Patriots might not be as good as I or others originally suggested. Although the early week NFL odds betting seems to be split pretty evenly, later in the week when the public gets ahold of these odds, they will almost surely back the Patriots. It may leave some value for the sharps, and at +16 at 5Dimes, it may be enough for some to take a chance on the baby Raiders at YouWager.

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Vikings vs. Saints
Luckily for the Saints they are back at home this week, but unluckily for them, they will almost surely have to deal with Adrian Peterson. After being deactivated after his arrest following child abuse allegations, Peterson was reactivated by the Vikings this morning, citing that “due process,” thing. While the NFL is not the court of law, and while putting my side rant aside, this doesn’t play well for the Saints’ soft defense. The Vikings are +9 ½ NFL odds underdogs in the Super Dome on Sunday, and you can be sure that most NFL public bettors will want to get on the Saints at home.

While most have come to realize that the Saints are a different team on the road, (as are the Seahawks which we found out last week) back in the Super Dome they are hard to stop. However with Peterson making his return, along with an ok defense and a lot of skill position weapons, the Vikings should not be underestimated here. This one is tougher than the above play, but in the end if the Vikings are underdogs into double-digits, they may be the play in New Orleans. While they got smashed last week, Peterson was not playing, and it showed. No one will respect the Vikings run game unless Peterson is in the game, and now that he is in, and on turf, the Vikings’ chances increase exponentially. Place your NFL picks accordingly. 

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