NFL Betting Trends To Influence Week 13

Detroit Lions players celebrating

Sunday, December 4, 2016 3:37 PM GMT

Betting trends influence how lines move across sportsbook platforms. Here we look at some guiding week 13 trends that are shaping the market for a couple of games and potentially week 13 NFL picks.


Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The defending Super Bowl champions opened laying -4 (-110) on the NFL odds board but with game day fast approaching they’ve dropped to -3 (-110) with most sports betting outlets including Sports Interaction. Some such as 5Dimes, Bookmaker, and BetOnline hang the Broncos on -3 (-120) while high limit takers Pinnacle hang the Broncos on -3.5 (+109) and the Jaguars on +3.5 (-120).

What is most intriguing about the market on this game is the fact that the Broncos have taken the bulk of the tickets (60.9% according to SBR Consensus betting reports) yet the line has moved against them – what is known as a reverse line movement. That’s down to more than 50% of the money (including so-called sharp money) going towards the Jaguars).

This could be a knee-jerk reaction to Denver’s loss to Kansas City Chiefs last week, a game they really shouldn’t have lost and featured so questionable play-calling by Gary Kubiak in overtime. More likely than not it’s a reaction to the news Trevor Siemian could potentially miss the game with a foot injury.

Still, is it enough to send the money towards the hapless Jaguars for week 13 NFL picks, a side that is merely 5-6-0 ATS this season with a -7.2 losing margin on average and -4.5 differential versus the spread is somewhat surprising. Begs the question how sharp is the money, really?

Granted Paxton Lynch starting does take some of the shine off the Broncos. He wasn’t anything special in his first NFL start. However, and this is the crucial bit, the Jaguars are technically winless at EverBank Stadium. Sure they are 1-4 SU at home but the lone win came in London at the expense of the Colts. More importantly, they are riding a six-game losing streak going into week 13 NFL picks all while being outscored 166-113 (which is a 53-point differential that amounts to an 8.83 losing margin on average). Key things to consider is interception prone Blake Bortles, who boasts a league-leading 13 interceptions through 11 games weeks of the season. That’s an average of 1.18 interceptions per game. Denver’s defense is sure to lap up such opportunities and they can convert those into scores better than any other team.

All in all, Paxton Lynch may be a step down from Trevor Siemian, but we’re still talking about the defending Super Bowl champions taking on one of the worst teams in the NFL. Color the world shocked if the Jaguars do keep this game as close as the public mood (based on the NFL betting trends) seems to suggest.

 

Free NFL Picks: Broncos -3 (-110) 

Best Line Offered: at SportsInteraction

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Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints

The Saints opened as the -4 home chalk on the NFL odds board but since open doors, the line has moved up considerably. In some instances, the Saints are laying -5.5 (Pinnacle) while with Sports Interaction the Saints are laying -6.5 (+100). Most sportsbooks park this game on a 6-point spread.

No major injury reports are coming out of Detroit so this line move must be down to purely NFL betting trends. This is where things get rather interesting. The Lions appear to be taking in the bulk of the tickets (at the time of writing, they have close to 60%). Yet, the line is moving against them, which is an indication of sharp money (large bets and syndicate betting) going towards the Saints, most likely at early doors.

Given the way the Lions are playing right now and, in particular, Matthew Stafford, taking the points with the Lions appears to be a steal. Sometimes when it looks too good to be true, it is. In this instance, though Lions +6 is too good to skip, even in the face of the hot hand of Drew Brees and the Saints, who just torched the Rams 49-21 in week 12. The Lions are a far cry better than the Rams, let’s face it.

 

NFL Free Picks: Lions +6 (-105) 

Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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