NFL Betting Trends That Matter In Week 14

Miami Dolphins players gathered around

Sunday, December 11, 2016 4:31 PM GMT

In this weekly column, we highlight betting trends that matter and impact the NFL odds for week 14 matchups. 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

Opening Line: Steelers -1 (-110)

Bookmakers went to press with a nominal line for the clash between the Steelers and Bills on Sunday and with the former to the good on the road. Pittsburgh won a third straight game to improve to 7-5-0 SU and keep pace with the Baltimore Ravens at the top of the AFC North in week 13. The Buffalo Bills, meanwhile, fritted away a substantial two-score lead over the Raiders to slip to a 6-6-0 SU record, putting their already flimsy playoff hopes in jeopardy. Evidently, the public appears to be reacting to the contrasting fortunes of both these teams as the Steelers were almost instantly bet up from -1 to -2 at opening doors.

Since then the line, progress has been steadily moving up. Most sportsbooks hang the Steelers now at the key number -3 and it appears public betting is almost entirely responsible for this move. To date, the Steelers have 63.1% of tickets taken while the Bills have merely 36.9%. To be fair, the two-point move on the  NFL odds board is significant in the context of NFL betting. In any other matchup, it might make it worth considering fading the public and shading the underdogs. However, sexy Rex Ryan and the Bills don’t seem to pack the punch they did earlier in the season while the Steelers have the incentive to win out with the playoffs looming. Push comes to shove, the Steelers laying 3 points still look good for our week 14 NFL picks.

 

Free NFL Picks: Steelers -3 (+106)

Best Line Offered: at JustBet

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Arizona Cardinals vs Miami Dolphins 

Opening Line:  Dolphins -2.5 (-115)
Current Line: Cardinals -2 (-110)

The clash between the Cardinals and Dolphins strikes a very interesting pose on the NFL odds board, one that features a complete market flip. Sportsbooks went to press with the Cardinals +2.5 (-115) on the road despite winning 31-23 win over the Redskins in week 13. The Dolphins, who slipped to a horrendous 38-6 loss to the Ravens were installed as the home chalk. The public wasn’t buying it at all and lapped up the points with the Cardinals right at opening doors. In fact, almost immediately the NFL line whittled down to Cardinals +1 and with consistent pounding over the course of the week the Cardinals were eventually bet up to -2 at most sportsbooks, including Bookmaker, Sports Interaction and Just Bet, to name a few. Clearly, this is a knee-jerk reaction to week 13 because prior to last Sunday the Dolphins were enjoying fine form behind a six-game winning streak. The same can’t be said of the hapless 5-6-0 SU Cardinals who are yet to enjoy any semblance of consistency this season. In this case, this is a public fade on our week 14 NFL picks. Take the Dolphins plus the points.

 

NFL Picks: Dolphins +2 (-107)

Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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