Here's what transpired during the 2014 NFL season from a betting perspective. This insightful article touches upon home underdogs, large totals, high scoring games, and much more.
2014 NFL ATS and Totals Betting Review
I take the time at the end of every NFL season to review ATS and totals results from opening day right through to the Super Bowl. My area of concentration isn’t on individual team results. I focus on NFL teams as a whole, and how they performed within certain parameters. I then form a report which I compare against past years, and attempt to find a particular situation which is held firm over the long haul. This can be a monumental and tedious task to say the least. I’ve decided for this article to share a condensed version on a small part of my findings, centering on just the key points from the 2014 NFL season.
Home teams went 152-109-1 (58%) straight up during the 2014 season. An often enticing NFL betting situation for the masses is to wager on home underdogs. Home underdogs went 43-37 ATS (53.8%) this season and were able to upset the opposition on 30 of those 80 (37.5%) occasions. Here’s what I found intriguing, if those home underdogs were facing an opponent coming off two or more wins in a row, they were an extremely profitable 21-7 ATS (75%) this season, won 15 of those 28-games outright, and if they were an underdog of 3.0 or more while facing a non-division opponent they improved to a perfect 11-0 ATS in addition to winning 9 of those 11 straight up.
High Scoring Teams
NFL teams scored 40-points or more on 37 separate occasions this season. Six teams accounted for 62.2% of the times 40-points or more were scored. The leader of the pack was the New England Patriots who accomplished the feat six times in 2014. The other five teams were Denver (4), Green Bay (4), Indianapolis (3), Dallas (3), and Pittsburgh (3). Ironically the Indianapolis Colts also allowed 40-points or more in four games this season, and held the embarrassing distinction of leading the league in that category, despite advancing to the AFC Championship game. Considering the fact that from 1980 through 2013, the league average was 22.6 per year in which teams topped the 40-point plateau, and further exemplifies how the evolution of the game has changed. In case you’re wondering, there were six games in the 2014 season in which a team scored 50-points or more, and the Green Bay Packers were the only one to accomplish it twice. The previous 34-seasons saw a league average of 2.5 times per year that teams cracked the 50-point barrier.
There were 39-games this season in which the closing total was 50.0 or more, and 23 of those 39 (59%) went over the total. Once again this leads additional credence in how the NFL game has transitioned. Between 1980 and 2013 there was an average of only 20.2 games per year that had a closing total of 50.0 or more.
Returning from London
It’s now become common practice to play regular season games in Europe in an attempt to globalize the NFL product. There were four such games this season. All eight of those teams which participated were given a bye in the following week, and justifiably so. When they did return to action following the long trip across the Atlantic, those teams were 5-3 ATS, and if they were at home, the number improved to 4-1 ATS. It will be interesting to see how these situations develop in the upcoming years as the NFL continues to expand upon their marketing abroad.
This is just the tip of the ice berg in regards to my discoveries from the 2014 NFL season. Hopefully during the upcoming weeks I can share more of my findings and NFL picks with the readers.