Recent head-to-head trends provide insights to help us pick winners against the NFL odds, or at least you'd think so. Here follows a few of the NFL betting trends we find relevant for Week 10.
Divisional Rivalry Trends
Are divisional games easier to pick? They do give us a recent team-vs.-team track record to work with, and a lot of divisional rivalries seem to run in streaks.
For instance, Green Bay is 16-3 straight up in its last 19 divisional-rivalry meetings with Detroit, with 24 straight wins in the state of Wisconsin. And while the Lions have won two of the last three meetings, one of those came with Packers QB Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines.
Green Bay started 6-0 this season, providing this handicapper with a couple of winning free NFL picks, but has lost two straight, and looked bad doing it. Packers backers can claim those losses came against a pair of undefeated teams, Denver and Carolina, both on the road, but Green Bay just stunk, and has now basically been outplayed four games in a row.
Now, though, the Packers return to Lambeau, where they're 12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS over their last 12 games, to host a 1-7 Lions team on the verge of imploding.
As of early this week the best NFL odds we could find on Green Bay was the -11 offered at Pinnacle.
Denver is 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS against Kansas City since bringing in Peyton Manning to quarterback. That includes that 31-24 victory at Arrowhead earlier this season. The Broncos just suffered their first loss of the season last week at Indianapolis, while the Chiefs, following five straight losses, have won two in a row, and just had last week off.
Denver was available at -6 at Pinnacle, while Kansas City was getting seven points at Bovada.
Not too long ago the Jets beat the rival Bills six times in a row, and eight of nine meetings. But suddenly Buffalo has beaten New York three times in a row. Also, while New York is now just 2-6 ATS its last eight times out as home favorites, after giving up a late touchdown against Jacksonville last week, Buffalo is 5-1 ATS over its last six road games.
Throw in Coach Ryan's move from the Jets to the Bills over the off-season, and his choice of captains for this game, and we might have a doozy of a Thursday nighter to watch and play.
In the early betting New York could be found giving -2.5 at 5Dimes, while Buffalo was getting three points at Bovada.
Finally, Pittsburgh owns an 11-game winning streak at home over Cleveland. Unfortunately, the Steelers are also without Ben Roethlisberger again, after he suffered a foot injury in last week's victory over Oakland.
Pittsburgh managed to go 2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS without Big Ben earlier this season, but got outgained in every one of those games.
The Steelers, even apparently with young Landry Jones at quarterback and without RB Le'Veon Bell, was favored by 4.5 points earlier this week at Heritage, while the Browns, with Josh McCown back at QB, were getting five points at BookMaker.
Speaking of backup quarterbacks, three teams played with their No. 2's last week; the 49ers, with Blaine Gabbert going in place of the ineffective Colin Kaepernick, upset Atlanta 17-16, but Cleveland with Johnny Football lost to Cincinnati 31-10 and Dallas with Matt Cassel lost to Philly 33-27 in overtime.
Two weeks ago backup quarterbacks went 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS.
As of this writing the Steelers and Cowboys will play with back-up quarterbacks this week, and the Vikings might, after Teddy Bridgewater got knocked cold in Minnesota's victory over the Rams last week.
As of this writing Dallas was getting two points at Pinnacle for Sunday's game at Tampa, and the Vikes were getting three points at Pinnacle for their visit to Oakland.
Heading into Monday night's Chargers-Bears game Week 9 saw eight of its first 12 games play OVER the totals. And of the four games with the highest totals, three of them – Steelers-Raiders 48, Saints-Titans 48 and Giants-Bucs 49 – played OVER.
So for this season NFL games are 68-62 on the OVERS, with two pushes.
As of the early Week 10 betting five games involved totals of 47 and above, led by the Patriots-Giants at 55, followed by Redskins-Saints 51, Packers-Lions and Ravens-Jags 48 and Bengals-Texans 47 (Monday night).