NFL Betting Trends Applied: Jaguars vs. Redskins Picks O/U & ATS

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, September 2, 2015 4:24 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 2, 2015 4:24 PM GMT

Currently favored by NFL odds makers, the Washington Redskins host the Jacksonville Jaguars in the last game of the NFL Preseason at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland on Thursday evening.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Washington Redskins NFL Odds Overview
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Washington Redskins (3-0, 72 PF-47 PA) welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2, 52 PF-65 to FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland on Thursday night for this Preseason Week 4 ineter-conference affair between two teams not thought to do much in the coming NFL season. Oddsmakers have made the host Redskins 4½-point favorites (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) over the Jaguars despite the fact starting QB Robert Griffin III (Concussion) is injured and expected to even miss the season opener now. The Total here has been set at a relatively low 40 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) with Washington -215 favorites on the Money Line (5Dimes) and underdogs Jacksonville priced at +178 on the takeback.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13 SU in 2014, 249 PF-412 PA) defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers at Home at EverBank Field in Jacksonville in Preseason Week 1 (23-21), then lost their next two games, Week 2 at the Meadowlands against the New York Giants (22-12) and then this past weekend in Week 3 play 22-17 to the Detroit Lions back at Home in the Sunshine State. So, after going 0-8 on the Road in the Regular Season in 2014, the Jaguars (250/1 to win Super Bowl, William Hill) have now L12 straight on the Road overall, and with this one being at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland, both the Site and the Streak carry much weight from a handicapping standpoint, even in the Preseason and even with the starting QB (RGIII) out—although this lazy betting spot (Preseason Week 4)—and the Redskins undefeated (3-0) so far this NFL Preseason. But those factors should probably considered in the amount of the bet size as no one would be surprised if Jacksonville (6-9-1 ATS) won here.

On Offense, expect Jaguars starting QB Blake Bortles (3-2-1 ATS Road in 2014) to get the start here again from 3rd-year Head Coach Gus Bradley (11-19-2 ATS). In the loss to the Lions on Friday night, Bortles was 20-29 for 245 yards—Jacksonville completed passes to 16 different receivers in true Preseason style—threw for a TD and had two scrambles on 3rd Down to keep drives alive. Second-year man Bortles (38 yards Rushing, 10-12 on 3rd Down Attempts vs. Lions) is now an impressive 39-60 for 461 yards, 1 TD and 0 Interceptions this Preseason 
and will probably play the entire 1st Quarter and likely the entire 2nd Quarter, though with much caution. In the loss to Detroit, Jacksonville (1-5 Division, 2-10 Conference) suffered another potential loss on the Defensive side of the football (Round 1 Pick, LB Dante Fowler, DT Sen’Derrick Marks) when DE Andre Branch (Left Knee) left the game on crutches. The 6-5, 265-pound 4th-year man out of Clemson had tests on Saturday. The Jaguars (-163 PD) will definitely be without Free Agent-signee, TE Julius Thomas (Broncos) for this game as he continues to recover from a Hand injury and reports have him likely being ready for the Jaguars Regular Season Week 1 opener on Sunday, Sept. 13 against the Carolina Panthers (Panthers -3; Total: 41, Pinnacle) at EverBank Field in Jacksonville.

 

Washington Redskins
The Washington Redskins (4-12 in 2104, 301- PF-438 PA last season) and their Future seem to be tied the Knees, Cranium and Contract of starting QB Robert Griffin III, and with his health not being what the team wants heading into the beginning of the Regular Season, Washington Head Coach Jay Gruden (5-11 ATS) has decided to go with Kirk Cousins in the Week 1 opener on Sunday, Sept. 13 when Washington welcome the Miami Dolphins here to FedEx Field (Dolphins -3½; Total: 43½, Pinnacle). So far, the Redskins are a perfect 3-0 this Preseason, beating the Cleveland Browns on the Road in Week 1 (20-17); the Detroit Lions in Week 2 at Home (21-17); and, against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3 (40-17) in a game where backup QBs Cousins (20-27, 190 yards, TD, Interception) and Colt McCoy (10-12, 95 yards, 2 TDs) were pretty impressive. WR Rashad Ross (6 receptions, 53 yards, 9.3 ypc, 7 targets) was on the end of 2 of the McCoy TD passes and may be a player to watch on Washington (150/1 to win Super Bowl, William Hill). Expect Cousins (Probable), McCoy, WR Ross, RB Matt Jones (7 rushes, 57 yards vs. Ravens), RB Trey Williams (9 rushes, 39 yards), WR Ryan Grant (5 receptions, 64 yards, 12.8 ypc, 8 Targets) and WR Jamison Crowder (4 receptions, 41 yards, 10.2 ypc, TD) to be the main players on Offense with RB Alfred Morris (7 rushes, 4 yards) being used cautiously and starting QB Griffin III (Concussion) on the shelf. We shouldn’t let Washington’s 3-0 mark deceive us here, but the game is in Landover and the Redskins are playing the Jaguars.

 

Realistic Preseason Expectations
The Redskins 3-0 record in the Preseason and the Jaguars 12-game losing streak overall on the Road make the hosts the call here—probably safer on the Moneyline and not too expensive. And with this the last game of the Preseason, expect the maximum number of players to get looks, which will create for choppiness in the game flow this particular game, and with both Head Coaches not wanting to get anyone injured at this critical point in it all, this should be good for the Under, although the teams were in games that had  combined 43 (Redskins-Ravens) and 39 (Jaguars-Lions) points. Despite Bortles being Pickless shining in the Preseason, the Jaguars record on the Road recently is the most dominating thing here with the Jaguars having L12 straight overall—0-1 2015 Preseason, 0-8 2014 Regular Season, 0-2 2014 Preseason, Loss to Colts at end of 2014 Regular Season—games away from home. Jacksonville’s last win on the Road came all the way back in the 2013 Regular Season when it beat the Cleveland Browns in Cleveland (32-28) in Week 13 of 2013 Regular Season. So, Week 13 of the 2013 Regular Season and the Jaguars (15-50 SU L4 seasons) are trying not to lose for the 13th straight time on the Road. Something tells me Jacksonville makes it 13 straight Losses here as it waits for its opener on the 13th. And can Washington possibly win by 13 with Cousins and McCoy slinging the pigskin at FedEx Field on Thursday and will WR Ross snag another TD pass or two? Probably best to pump the ole Burgundy and Gold brakes some. This is the Washington Redskins we’re talking about. NFL picks placed Under and the Skins on the Moneyline seem the safest picks in this one.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Washington Redskins 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 18

NFL PRESEASON WEEK 4 PICKS: Under 40, Redskins Moneyline -215 (5Dimes)

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