The first game is in the books. Thirteen to go this weekend and a double-header on Monday before the entire week is in the books. So let’s get started recapping the betting action.
NFL 2016 Kicks Off With A Bang
A Super Bowl Rematch to get us underway. A game that was so close it came down to the wire. It really doesn’t get any better than that and the Super Bowl champions redlined their title credentials with a 21-20 win at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Welcome back NFL, you were missed.
They are Super Bowl champions for a reason, said as much Cam Newton in his post-match interview. Although the Panthers were within a field goal of taking the win, only for Graham Gano to botch what was a victory there for the taking, it didn’t stop last year’s MVP from being philosophical about the loss. Pointing out it’s only the first game of the season, 15 more games to go before all is said and done.
As far as the betting goes, boy it was quite the doozy at the sports betting floor and we’ll get to that right away (below), along with our NFL betting recap for each and every game in week 1 as the results seep in. So be sure to check back over the course of the weekend until Monday Night Football’s double-header calls it a wrap.
Denver’s win kicks off week 1 with aplomb as home teams going 1-0 over away teams but also notches the first ‘W’ for the underdogs in the first lap of football betting. As well, the OVER edges the UNDER 1-0.
Week 1 NFL Betting Trends
Home vs. Away: 6-8 SU, 4-8-2 ATS
Favourites vs. Underdogs: 9-5 SU, 5-7-2 ATS
Over vs. Under: 8-6
Must Read - NFL Betting Secrets Unveiled To Wager Like A Pro
Thursday, September 8, 2016
Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos
Sports Authority Field at Mile High, 8:30 PM ET
Opening Line: Broncos -1, Over/Under Total 43
Midweek Line: Panthers -3, Over/Under Total 41.5
Early Consensus Betting: Panthers 69.7% ATS, Under 66.1 %
Closing Line: Panthers -3, Over/Under Total 40.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Panthers 66.73 (Broncos 33.27/ twice as many spread bets recorded with Panthers 1,013 to 505 but Money 70.92% Broncos average bet 269 to 55$)
All while Cam Newton suffered his latest beating by Von Miller and the Broncos defense, the bookies were dealt a beating of their own at the sports betting exchange. At least bookmakers still have the rest of the weekend to recoup their losses. Small blessings. By consensus betting polls from contributing sportsbooks at SBR the Panthers emerged as the 66.7% consensus bet versus the spread. Opening as the road underdogs they were bet up to a whopping field goal advantage by closing doors. However, the intriguing bit, the 66.73% of spread bets on the Panthers only represented a measly 29.09% of the money risked on this game. The money was all in with the Broncos, to the tune of a whopping 70.92%. The average bet on the Broncos was five times more than the average bet on the Panthers ($269 to $55 approximately), which is an indication of sharp money on the Broncos if ever there was any. Under bettors as well bet down the total with impunity, from an opening 43 points it finally settled on 40.5 points. For those that grabbed the early line, the UNDER bet certainly cashed. However, those bettors that got in late and banked the 40.5-point line saw the OVER cash. Tale told it was a good day for the public and mainly sharp (wiseguy) bettors that backed the Broncos all day long as the home underdogs.
Sunday games will be updated with our NFL betting insights as the results come in…. stay tuned...
Sunday, September 11, 2016
Green Bay Packers 27 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 23
EverBank Field, 1 PM ET
Opening Line: Packers -4, Over/Under Total 47
Midweek Line: Packers -5, Over/Under Total 48
Early Consensus Betting: Packers 68.9% ATS, OVER 64.2%
Closing Line: Packers -3.5, Over/Under Total 47.5
Closing Consensus ATS Betting: Packers 64/98%
Of all the games, this featured the most one-sided betting. Packers are a public favourite and bettors were pounding the Packers at all the different NFL lines posted for this game, from -5 all the way down to -3.5 where they eventually closed. Of course, those that got in the action late and grabbed the Packers at -3.5 proved winners in the 27-23 win. On the flipside, those that banked on the Jaguars to cover as the +5 home underdogs in early NFL betting markets proved winners against the spread.
Buffalo Bills 7 vs. Baltimore Ravens 13
M&T Bank Stadium, 1 PM ET
Opening Line: Ravens -2.5, Over/Under Total 43
Midweek Line: Ravens -3, Over/Under Total 44.5
Early Consensus Betting: Ravens 58.2% ATS, OVER 88.5%
Closing Line: Ravens -3, Over/Under 44.5
Closing Consensus ATS Betting: Ravens 58%
The Ryan Twins were left pulling their hair out on the sidelines following the debacle that was this game. If the Dolphins vs. Seahawks were a headscratcher this was a right yawn and produced the lowest score of the week (20 points of offense between the pair). For some reason, the consensus bet appeared to be the OVER with a whopping 88.5% of wagers. It wasn’t even close.
Chicago Bears 14 vs. Houston Texans 23
NRG Stadium, 1 PM ET
Opening Line: Texans -5.5, Over/Under Total 44
Midweek Line: Texans -7, Over/Under Total 43.5
Early Consensus Betting: Texans 58.9% ATS, UNDER 51.2%
Closing Line: Texans -5.5. Over/Under 42.5
Closing Consensus ATS Betting: Texans 59.10%
The Houston Texans proved to be the largest favourites to cover this week in a 23-15 win over the Chicago Bears at NFG Stadium. Despite the NFL betting line moving up and down between 5.5 to 7-points, the Texans covered with some to spare. The 42.5-point total closing on the game was one of several middling totals on the NFL odds board and that saw the UNDER cash. News of J.J. Watts return played a part in the total being bet down from 44 to 42.5.
Cleveland Browns 10 vs. Philadelphia Eagles 29
Lincoln Financial Field, 1 PM ET
Opening Line: Eagles -7, Over/Under 45
Midweek Line: Eagles -4, Over/Under Total 41
Early Consensus Betting: Browns 52.9% ATS, UNDER 67.4%
Closing Line: Eagles -3.5, Over/Under 41.5
Closing Consensus ATS Betting: Browns 54%
Oh boy, oh boy. One of the biggest drops of the week – Eagles slipping from -7 to -3.5 on the NFL odds board proved an unnecessary move after all. Prompted by the departure of Sam Bradford to Minnesota Vikings eight days before week 1 of the season got underway, there was a general unease and uncertainty about the merit of Carson Wentz or Chase Daniel as starters. Then, it wasn’t yet certain which of the pair would get the start. Tale told, Wentz got his NFL debut against the Browns and led the Eagles to a solid 29-10 win over the Browns. Of course, he did catch a break with the Browns, who, by all accounts, are expected to be dead atrocious this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 vs. Atlanta Falcons 24
Georgia Dome, 1 PM ET
Opening Line: Falcons -3, Over/Under Total 47.5
Midweek Line: Falcons -3, Over/Under Total 47.5
Early Consensus Betting: Bucs 55.8% ATS, UNDER 54.1%
Closing Line: Falcons -2.5, Over/Under Total 47
Closing Consensus ATS Betting: Falcons 53.33%
The NFC South clash between the Falcons and Bucs held fast to the 3-point spread all the way until late, late doors. Most of the betting (approximately 40%) comes down the wire on the day of the games according to sportsbooks. Late betting on this clash saw the Falcons slip to -2.5 points because of a mixture of sharp betting and large wagers on the Bucs. Tale told, the Bucs proved to be well worth the hype and Jameis Winston improves to 3-0 SU over the Falcons in his career.
Minnesota Vikings 25 vs. Tennessee Titans 16
Nissan Stadium, 1 PM ET
Opening Line: Vikings PK, Over/Under Total 41
Midweek Line: Vikings -2.5, Over/Under Total 41
Early Consensus Betting: Vikings 50.1% ATS
Closing Line: Vikings -2.5, Over/Under Total 40
Closing Consensus ATS Betting: Vikings 50.18%
No Teddy Bridgewater. No problem. Well, not exactly. Defense (two touchdowns) and the run game proved to be the charm as the Vikings came through as the relatively significant road chalk in the 25-16 win in Tennessee. Of all the games, the 40-point total was the lowest on the NFL odds board but, somehow, it just cracked with the OVER. Curiously, while the Vikings proved to be the slight consensus bet the money was mostly with the Titans, so high was the public and sharps on the Titans.
Cincinnati Bengals 23 vs. NY Jets 22
MetLife Stadium, 1 PM ET
Opening Line: Bengals PK, Over/Under Total 42.5
Midweek Line: Bengals -2.5, Over/Under Total 41.5
Early Consensus Betting: Bengals 63.8% ATS, UNDER 92.1%
Closing Line: Bengals -1, Over/Under 42
Closing Consensus ATS Betting: Bengals 65%
This game was as predicted a close one with the victory decided by a mere point, causing the game to result in a push. It’s one of two games in week 1 to push according to closing lines (the other was the Giants vs. Cowboys which also closed on 1-point line and was decided by exactly a point). The total was only just cracked in the 23-22 win by the Bengals, marking one of eight games (out of 14 played thus far) in the week where the OVER connected.
Oakland Raiders 35 vs. New Orleans Saints 34
Mercedes Benz Superdome, 1 PM ET
Opening Line: Saints -1, Over/Under 50
Midweek Line: Saints -1, Over/Under Total 51
Early Consensus Betting: Raiders 50.4% ATS, OVER 67.3%
Closing Line: Saints -3, Over/Under 50.5
Closing Consensus ATS Betting: Raiders 50.70%
This was a veritable shootout between Dereck Carr and Drew Brees, but, also, one of several games in the first week of the NFL betting season to hinge on a field goal attempt in the late stages. Just as the Panthers and Cardinals botched a potential game-winning field goal, so too did the Saints. Either way, the Raiders would have covered but, in this case, they also got the straight up win as the road underdogs. The Raiders were one of five underdogs to both win and cover (Broncos, Lions, Patriots and Bucs).
San Diego Chargers 27 vs. Kansas City Chiefs 33
Arrowhead Stadium, 1 PM ET
Opening Line: Chiefs -7, Over/Under Total 43
Midweek Line: Chiefs -7.5, Over/Under Total 44.5
Early Consensus Betting: Chargers 55.3% ATS, OVER 71.7%
Closing Line: Chiefs -6.5, Over/Under Total 46
Closing Consensus ATS Betting: Chargers 57.17%
Arguably, the most bizarre game of the week with momentum shifts worthy of a Shakespearean drama. Chargers raced out to a whopping 21-3 lead before the game turned on its head and the Chiefs came from behind to win 33-27. Sharp money was all over the Chargers (as it was with the Lions) during the week. They were one of several road underdogs that struck an attractive pose – 87.7% of the money risked on this game had the Chargers to cover according to SBR Consensus betting polls. Although the Chargers still managed to squeak the cover for their backers, those that backed the Chargers in straight up betting to win outright on the road must have felt robbed.
Miami Dolphins 10 vs. Seattle Seahawks 12
CenturyLink Stadium, 1:05 PM ET
Opening Line: Seahawks -7.5, Over/Under 49
Midweek Line: Seahawks -11.5, Over/Under Total 44
Early Consensus Betting: Dolphins 53.4% ATS, OVER 90.9%
Closing Line: Seahawks -10.5, Over/Under Total 44
Closing Consensus ATS Betting: Dolphins 53.40%
Arguably, the strangest of the entire weekend that left many NFL bettors perplexed, particularly Hawks fans who were left flummoxed by their team’s performance at CenturyLink. A win is a win but the Seahawks, who were the biggest home favourites trading on the NFL odds board, didn’t even come close to covering the absurd double-digit spread. Talk about being overrated. Then again, that they didn’t cover helped bookmakers according to Vegas Insiders especially where parlay bets were concerned. On the downside, Russell Wilson suffered an ankle injury and is now listed as questionable, which is sure to have a major impact on week 2 NFL betting lines over and above the outcome of this game.
Detroit Lions 39 vs. Indianapolis Colts 35
Lucas Oil Stadium, 1:25 PM ET
Opening Line: Colts -5.5, Over/Under Total 50.5
Midweek Line: Colts -3.5, Over/Under Total 51
Early Consensus Betting: Colts 55.2% ATS, OVER 54.7%
Closing Line: Colts -2.5, Over/Under Total 51.5
Closing Consensus ATS Betting: Colts 55.22%
The Lions proved to be one of five underdogs to both win and cover on the road in week 1 of the NFL betting season. During the week, a lot of sharp action was coming down the wire on the Lions, moving the NFL betting line against the public consensus betting favourite Colts quite significantly. In other words, it was a reverse line movement from -3.5 or -4 (depending on your choice sportsbook) at the start of the week to -2.5 at closing doors. Indeed, overall, since early week 1 NFL lines were posted back in April and the Colts were installed as almost 6-point faves, they come down in estimation. Over bettors also raked in as this turned into a massive shootout between Mathew Stafford and Andrew Luck which smashed the total with tons to spare.
NY Giants 20 vs. Dallas Cowboys 19
AT&T Stadium, 1:25 PM ET
Opening Line: Cowboys -3.5, Over/Under Total 49
Midweek Line: Cowboys -1, Over/Under Total 46
Early Consensus Betting: Giants 57% ATS, OVER 53.7%
Closing Line: Giants -1, Over/Under Total 48
Closing Consensus ATS Betting: 57.83%
The 20-19 win by the Giants on the road wasn’t the outcome Dallas fans were hoping for, believing in Dak Prescott they had a gem. There are those NFL betting experts already making ominous predictions about Tony Romo, calling this latest injury bout the beginning of the end of his career in Dallas. (Wonder if he’s secretly pleased that Dallas continues to be winless without him call the shots?) In any event, the NFL betting line hopped around from Cowboys -3.5 (pre-Romo injury) to Cowboys -1 (post Romo injury) to a closing line that served up the Giants as nominal -1 road faves. Tale told, it was a close game that ended in a push. It may well have gone the Cowboys way had time not run out literally. Terence Williams (must have had a brain cramp or something) made the pivotal catch but also the unfortunate decision to remain in bounds with no timeouts remaining and the clock winding down. Straight up bettors on the Giants must have been thrilled.
New England Patriots 23 vs. Arizona Cardinals 21
University of Phoenix Stadium, 8:30 PM ET
Opening Line: Cardinals -5.5, Over/Under Total 47.5
Midweek Line: Cardinals -6, Over/Under Total 47
Early Consensus Betting: Cardinals 58% ATS, OVER 68.4%
Closing Line: Cardinals -9, Over/Under Total 44.5
Closing Consensus ATS Betting: Cardinals 57.97%
On the heels of the announcement Gronkowski would also miss the game, the Patriots moved to +9 on the NFL odds board. It didn’t make much of a difference when all was said and done. The Patriots proved to be the largest underdogs to not only cover on Sunday but also win straight up. No Tom Brady, No Gronkowski. No problem as the Patriots edged the Cardinals 23-21 –albeit the missed field goal attempt by the Cards in the dying seconds of the game decided the outcome and, to some extent, saved bookies.