NFL Betting Tips – Public Betting Against Rookie Quarterbacks

Nikki Adams

Sunday, September 11, 2016 1:11 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 11, 2016 1:11 PM UTC

One of the NFL betting trends to emerge in week 1 seems to be a move against rookie quarterbacks by the public.  That didn’t work on Thursday. Will it work in Sunday’s round of NFL betting?

What Did The Super Bowl Rematch Reveal?
Super Bowl rematch between Panthers and Broncos sets the tone for week 1, proving the dog was the right side to bet. What’s more, it showed John Elway and Gary Kubiak’s bold decision to start Trevor Siemian was the right decision to the chagrin of their critics.

Panthers were the recipients of most the betting action coming down the wire to the tune of 66.7% of spread bets according to SBR contributing sportsbooks. The public was high on the Panthers on account of having the better quarterback, the regular season MVP in 2015 no less. In other words, all and sundry bet against Denver’s so-called rookie quarterback Trevor Siemien, who although technically enters his second year after being drafted in the seventh round in 2015 hadn’t taken a single NFL snap.


Betting Against A Rookie Quarterback
To be fair, betting against a rookie quarterback isn’t the worst NFL betting strategy. Two rookie quarterbacks are set to make their respective debut in week 1 – Carson Wentz for the Eagles and Dak Prescott for the Dallas Cowboys.

As it is, both games feature significant public betting against the rookie quarterbacks already. Of course, that may yet be countered by late bettors and sharp money coming down the wire but we’re already seeing an interesting NFL betting trend here.

Arguably, Carson Wentz catches a break with a date against the Cleveland Browns – a side many figures to be hapless this season. Nevertheless, it features the biggest line move of the first week of the NFL. Since April’s opening lines went to press with the Eagles installed as the whopping 8.5-point favourites (or thereabouts depending on your choice bookmaker) it’s whittled down to a mere 3.5 point or, even, field-goal advantage with the Eagles at home.

As it is, the Browns have 52.90% of the bets – so a slight edge in public betting opinion. Sharp money, though, appears to be with the Eagles as they have 55.43% of the money staked on this game.

According to Vegas Insiders, it’s straight bets on the Browns that has moved the line most significantly, so it follows they’ll need the Eagles to come up trumps in order to emerge winners. Not a lot of takers or sharp money yet on the Eagles, most likely down to the uncertainty and unknown quality Carson Wentz presents. Unlike Trevor Siemian, who benefited from being Peyton Manning’s understudy, Wentz is a total shot in the dark. No wonder the public is loving the underdog, here which the Browns are in no uncertain terms trading at +158 with Heritage for instance.

Dak Prescott, however, has a tougher assignment with Eli Manning and the G-men descending on AT&T Stadium. April’s early serving had the Cowboys as 4.5-point favourites when Tony Romo was expected to start but that line has since reopened at -1 or PK following the veteran’s unfortunate injury in week 2 of the preseason. Bookies appear confident in this game given how well Prescott played in the preseason; hence, reopening Dallas as the notional home faves.

Dallas may have been the early consensus bet but ever since the injury to Romo betting on the Giants has perked up with 57.83% of bets wagered and a whopping 86.06% of the money risked on this game buying into the Giants.

Finally, one of the most exposed games of the week with contributing sportsbooks at SBR appears to be the clash between the Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans. As it is, tons of public action is coming down the wire for both franchises – it’s almost a 50-50 split in terms of amount of bets recorded. However, sharps appear to be liking the Titans quite a lot, underscored by some large bets and bigger money coming down the wire towards the Titans. This looks to be a game that pits the public versus the sharps, wholeheartedly.

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