NFL Betting Tips - Fade The Public And Back The Lions In Week 6

Jason Lake

Wednesday, October 12, 2016 2:57 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 12, 2016 2:57 PM UTC

Strange things are happening. Most early bettors prefer the Philadelphia Eagles for their Week 6 NFL picks, but someone with deep pockets has gone whole hog on Washington.


You are about to enter another dimension. A dimension not only of sight and sound but of money. According to our very, very early expanded consensus report for Week 5, someone – or a handful of someones – has dumped a shipload of money on Washington for Sunday's game (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX) against the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia has 64 percent of bettors on their side, but Washington has 93 percent of the action, for an average bet size of $849. What what?!

It's complicated. The Eagles (3-1 SU and ATS) opened as a pick 'em at home on the NFL odds board, but at press time, they're –2 in most books. This could be a simple case of sample size; Washington (3-2 SU and ATS) only have 56 wagers placed on our survey, including one $1,000+ bet, and Philadelphia have 99 wagers at an average of $34. Plus, moving from a pick 'em to –2 isn't that big of a deal. According to Wizard of Odds, it's worth 13.6 cents of juice, or about the same as moving from –6.5 to –7.

Whisperer in the Wind
This is still worth keeping a close eye on. Washington has won three straight games, including road upsets of the New York Giants (–3.5) and the Baltimore Ravens (–4). But they weren't great performances; Washington sits at minus-1.6 on the Simple Rating System at Pro-Football-Reference through Week 5, and Baltimore fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman after Sunday's loss.

The Eagles, meanwhile, gave up a late field goal in a 24-23 loss to the Detroit Lions (+3.5 at home). Philadelphia still leads the NFL at plus-15.0 SRS, but this could be a case of regression to the mean after getting through the first three games without a turnover. They committed two against Detroit, including the first pick of QB Carson Wentz' career as a pro.

We need more data before recommending Washington, but this looks like a good spot to put the Lions in your Week 6 NFL picks. They're 3-point home favorites for Sunday's matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX) with the Los Angeles Rams, and our reports show 82 percent of the action on Detroit, coming from 56 percent of bettors. The average bet size: $83. It's a reasonable size with the Lions (2-3 SU and ATS) at plus-1.6 SRS and the Rams (3-2 SU and ATS) at minus-6.2.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.

Record: 8-6 ATS, 4-7 Totals

Free NFL Pick: Lions –3 (–125)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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