Week 6 was an absolute nightmare for chalkeaters. Will recreational bettors continue to put the league's top teams in their NFL picks this week? Of course they will.
Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 18: 21-14 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 13-23 Total
Every speculative bubble has to burst sometime. Whether it's sub-prime mortgages or dot-com start-ups or Danish tulips, there comes a point where the market values a product far too heavily, then the product fails. Are the New England Patriots the new tulip? Just about everyone had the college fund on New England for Sunday night's game against the Indianapolis Colts. And just about everyone got soaked when that bubble burst. Talk about deflating.
As always, the sharps jump off the bandwagon first. The Patriots got zero support in early betting for Sunday's game (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) against the New York Jets, who have quietly put together a 4-1 SU and ATS record while the Patriots have gone undefeated (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS). Will the public follow suit with their NFL picks? Unlikely. New England opened as a 10.5-point home chalk for this divisional rivalry, and recreational bettors love big faves, especially when Tom Brady's the quarterback.
Rest Is for the Weak
There are four other undefeated teams in the NFL heading into Week 7, but three of them – Green Bay, Denver and Cincinnati – are taking the bye. That leaves the Patriots and the Carolina Panthers, who pulled off a stunning upset of the Seattle Seahawks (–7 at home) to stay on top of the NFC South. Carolina doesn't fit the typical profile of a public team, but that 5-0 record (4-1 ATS) should bring the squares to the yard for Sunday night's tilt (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC) with the Philadelphia Eagles.
We wouldn't normally see the Arizona Cardinals and the Atlanta Falcons this high up the public money charts, either, except for all those victories they racked up in September. October hasn't been quite as kind – each team has dropped the cash twice in three games. But we anticipate more square action for Week 7; the Cardinals opened as 7.5-point home favorites on the NFL odds board for Sunday night's game (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC) against the awful Baltimore Ravens, while the Falcons are –4 road faves Sunday afternoon (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX) versus the struggling Tennessee Titans.
There's one more game out there which could see a deluge of public bettors – but it depends partly on what happens to the New York Giants on Monday Night Football. That game against Philadelphia is still pending as we go to press, but assuming the Giants come out all right, they could be a very popular pick for Sunday's late matinee (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX) with the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas will be starting Matt Cassel at quarterback. Yes, Matt Cassel. He's one of our guilty pleasures here at the home office, but we don't expect the public to follow suit the Cowboys as 5.5-point road dogs. Just a hunch.