NFL Betting: The Chargers Can't Do Anything Right – Except Cover

Jason Lake

Wednesday, October 12, 2016 7:37 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 12, 2016 7:37 PM UTC

The San Diego Chargers keep finding new ways to lose football games. Nothing wrong with that, as long as the Bolts keep beating the NFL odds more often than not.

Record: 8-6 ATS, 4-7 Totals

Mike McCoy didn't sign up for this. His San Diego Chargers have held a second-half lead in all five of their games this season, yet here they are at 1-4 going into Thursday night's matchup (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS) with the Denver Broncos. One more slip-up, and the long knives will be coming out for McCoy.

Even the sharps have had enough. They've been on San Diego's side for the most part, certainly in Week 1 and Week 2 and Week 5 when we looked at the consensus numbers. The Chargers covered all three of those games, but our expanded consensus report for Week 6 shows almost all the money coming in on the Broncos as 3-point road faves on the NFL odds board, for an average bet size of $3,027 to just $17 on the Bolts. Have our heroes reached the breaking point?

To Lose Is to Win

Let's take a quick look back at how San Diego has fouled things up thus far:

Week 1: The Chargers were up 27-10 on the Kansas City Chiefs (–6.5 at home) early in the fourth. Kansas City forced overtime and won 33-27.

Week 2: No worries this time, as San Diego was crushing the Jacksonville Jaguars (+3 away) 35-0 after three quarters, winning 38-14 in the end.

Week 3: This was a gut-punch. The Chargers had a late 22-20 lead over the Indianapolis Colts (–1.5 at home), but Andrew Luck found T.Y. Hilton for a 63-yard touchdown in the last two minutes to win 26-22.

Week 4: Leading the New Orleans Saints (+3.5 away) 34-21 halfway through the fourth quarter, the Bolts allowed two touchdowns and lost 35-34. Sad!

Week 5: This time, the Chargers gave up their lead over the Oakland Raiders (–3.5 at home) in the third quarter, but they could have tied the game with a late 36-yard-field goal. Drew Kaser couldn't get the snap down, and the Raiders prevailed 34-31.

And that's how San Diego has gone 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS despite posting a plus-10 point differential through five games. This should make the Chargers a value NFL pick going forward, but as you can see by the consensus numbers, the big money has other ideas. No fear: We're recommending at least one more small contrarian bet on the Bolts before they fold up like a cheap card table.

Free NFL Pick: Chargers +3.5 (–108)
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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