NFL Betting: Swinger’s Week 13 Picks

Detroit Lions players in field

Friday, December 2, 2016 6:41 PM GMT

Swinger is locked and loaded for the stretch run of the season as he peruses what the NFL oddsmakers are dealing for Week 13 and looking to add to his bankroll. He's a big Detroit Lions fans this Sunday. 

[/]{"component":"podcast", "url":"http://www.static-files.com.s3.amazonaws.com/JordanAndSwingerPODCAST_Dec1st.mp3", "imageId": "5842f5e074387fc87803fdb8"}[/]

Swinger's Overall 2016 NFL Record: 25-22-1 ATS

We took a step back last week as the Bolts were the only one of my three NFL picks that cashed. Unfortunately, the 'under' 45 in the Jaguars/Bills game looked like it was going to be an easy winner after the first half when the teams combined for a paltry 13 points. But LeSean McCoy ripped off a 75-yard cloud of dust that signaled our total just might be in peril. When the final whistle blew, the Bills vanquished the Jags 28-21 and our total proved to be a money-burner. Lastly, the Browns demonstrated yet again why backing them with your hard-earned money is riskier than investing in that new line of fur sinks -- just not a good idea. At least they aren't tempting this week on the bye.

The good news is that we are still above .500 and grinding our way down the stretch. We have had some hellaciously bad beats this season, but the only one who wants to hear a bad beat story is the one telling the tale. Thus we move on and review the NFL odds in Week 13 in order to have plenty of dough when the postseason commences.

 

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

The Lions have won three straight and enjoyed a 10-day respite after their huge victory over a divisional foe in the Vikings on Thanksgiving Day. Detroit may be ranked a middling 15th in points against, but consider how this team has come together over the past five games. The Lions have allowed a mere 17 points per game during that span, and it's no coincidence that those impressive defensive performances have occurred with the returns of cornerback Darius Slay and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah.  

Yet, now the Lions are facing the NFL's most prolific passing attack (319 PYG) and second-ranked scoring attack (30.4 PPG) in Drew Brees and the Saints. Understand, though, that New Orleans padded its stats against weak sisters San Francisco and LA, scoring a combined 90 points but wedged between those games were consecutive losses to Denver and Carolina where the Saints scored an average of 22 points. I say the Lions are far closer to elite rather than porous defensively, and with their ability to strike downfield against a truly lousy Saints secondary this could be a case of the oddsmakers having the wrong favorite.

NFL Free Pick: Lions +7

Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011368, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,238,1537,93], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots

Last week's blowout loss to the Saints will have all the squares pooh-poohing the Rams and devouring the huge home chalk that is New England. In the interest of full disclosure, I am a rabid Pats fan but I am even more a fan of money -- which is why I normally stay far away from betting for or against them as I am a wee bit too emotionally invested. However, I know a square line when I see it, and this New England team is not worthy of laying north of two touchdowns to anyone in their current state. The Patriots have a gimpy golden boy as TB12 has an ailing leg and his primary weapon, tight end extraordinaire Rob Gronkowski, is on the shelf for the season due to a herniated disk in his back.

The LA defensive front should give a patchwork New England offensive line plenty of trouble, and with Brady not quite himself and without his chief target, I don't see the Patriots piling up the points. In addition, the Pats' defensive front no longer possesses the chaos-makers in Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. Chris Long is the only thing resembling a pass-rusher, and he can't do it alone. Oh, and do you want to know how a team gets a first down on the Patriots? Watch that team after a third-down situation and there's your answer. New England cannot seem to stop those short dum-offs between the linebackers and corners. Jared Goff is still only a rookie in his third career start, I get it, but is talented enough to exploit those weaknesses. The Rams will definitely hang and bang with my boys from Foxboro, unfortunately.

NFL Free Pick: Rams +14.5

Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011364, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,93,169,186], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers

Yes, the Giants have won six straight, but those victories were over a bunch of lousy to middling-at-best teams and courtesy of a number of fortunate breaks and calls that went Big Blue's way. Conversely, the Steelers have only a modest two-game streak going, but that feels more like a freight train beginning to roll downhill than the one from Penn Station that will soon be stopping at the Steel City Station.

The bottom line is that the Pittsburgh offense has more weapons than New York's with the game's  star wideouts, Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham, a veritable jump ball depending upon whom you root for on a regular basis. In my mind, Ben Roethlisberger is the easy pick over Eli Manning in a matchup of 2004 first-rounders, and Le'Veon Bell blows away the Giants' Rashad Jennings in the rushing department. I even like Pittsburgh's defense to disrupt Eli, as we all know when Peyton's little brother is rushed he tends to throw the ball away -- quickly! Watch the Steelers continue to make their case for a playoff berth with a statement win.

NFL Free Pick: Steelers -6

Best Line Offered: Bovada

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011374, "sportsbooksIds":[999996,1096,169,1275,19], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 

The Woodman's Corner (4-8 ATS)

To say that the Woodman is having a less than desirable season is like saying Donald Trump is just a little too sure of himself. However, the Woodman has history on his side, and this week he is aligning with yours truly on an undervalued road dog in the Lions. Can two mentally challenged handicappers conjure one dynamic pick? Well, drool cups be damned, yes we can!

NFL Free Pick: Lions +7