NFL Betting: Swinger's Week 12 NFL Picks

Phillip Rivers

Friday, November 25, 2016 3:36 PM GMT

Last week Swinger cashed again with his NFL picks and has more winners in store this weekend. Now that Thanksgiving is in our rearview mirror, let's keep cashing so we have plenty of money for all those Christmas presents!

 [/]{"component":"podcast", "url":"http://www.static-files.com.s3.amazonaws.com/SwingerVsSharpPODCAST_November25th.mp3", "imageId": "5830c660a14c6f9800aa2ccf"}[/]Swinger’s Overall 2016 NFL Record: 24-20-1

How was your Thanksgiving? Turkey coma, right? Why is it that all year long we eat chicken, and then one day of the year is like The Purge to turkeys everywhere? They're just hangin' out, minding their own turkey business and watching their cousins, the chickens, get butchered by the millions. But one day of the year everybody gets a taste for the strange and -- WHAM -- the turkeys wind up on their backs and on someone's table!

Well, just like in sports gambling some weeks you are the turkey and other weeks you're carving the turkey. Fortunately, we have been the latter recently, and if we weren't such turkeys early on in the season we'd be up a bunch in our NFL picks. But the season is a grind and if you know your stuff, do your homework and keep up with how injuries, particularly to the no-names in the trenches, affect the team's dynamic then you'll be alright.

One more thing. Maintain an even keel and don't start betting a game because you're bored. If we hit 55-60 percent ATS on our informed opinions over the course of the season, then we make money. That win percentage gets eroded by "bored bets". Don't do it. If you absolutely need money on a game to watch it, then bet a few bucks with your buddy. That way you know the money will be in your hot little hands right after the game and it somehow means more than having to wait to withdraw an inconsequential amount a week later.

That's my advice, and now it's time to keep cashin' after another winning week in which we went 2-1 with the Bucs and Lions cashing, while the Ravens cost us the cover after fading to the Cowboys in the second half.

 

San Diego Chargers At Houston Texans

Brock Osweiler of the Texans has been underwhelming this season, and if Houston had to do it all over again it's a pretty safe bet it wouldn't have lavished that big-money contract on a player with only eight career starts under his belt prior to this season. The Texans were defeated 27-20 by the Raiders in Mexico City on Monday night (short week for Houston, don't forget), but had Oakland picked off even half the errant Osweiler passes that they bobbled it would have been a blowout. Houston's offense (ranked 28th) does not scare me against a Chargers' defense that boasts a phenomenal rookie in Joey Bosa, who will undoubtedly apply plenty of heat against an overmatched backup tackle in Chris Clark.

The Chargers are coming off a bye week as well as a 31-24 loss to the Miami Dolphins. The Texans have two dynamic edge rushers in Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus but Melvin Gordon, superstar running back for San Diego, will have a huge day against a pedestrian at best Texans run-stopping unit (ranked 21st). We also know that San Diego behind Philip Rivers owns the 5th ranked passing attack and is 2nd in points scored.

The bottom line here is that the Houston Texans offense is not equipped to keep pace with the juggernaut that the Bolts possess. Go with the visitor here.

NFL Free Pick: Chargers At Pick'emBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Jacksonville Jaguars At Buffalo Bills

The Bills will most likely prevail in this matchup but I'm not laying the points the NFL odds makers are insisting. Jacksonville has a much-improved defense that will disrupt Tyrod Taylor and an injured Shady McCoy. On the other hand, the Bills should give Blake Bortles fits when he has the ball with options that are few and far between.

The Bills are dead last in passing yards, averaging just 185.7 per game, but it is their dynamic rushing game that moves the chains as evidenced by their No. 1 ranking garnering 157.8 yards per contest. McCoy will be impacted from his thumb injury from last week and he already had surgery Monday on it but will play. Tyrod Taylor will get his yards on the ground, but Jacksonville's 5th ranked pass defense will force this game to become one dimensional. It will be a grind played between the 30s, and that smells like an 'under' to me.

NFL Free Pick: 'Under' 45Best Line Offered: BookMaker

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NY Giants At Cleveland Browns

Big Blue is a gritty team that comes into this game with a 7-3 record after a disastrous 2015 campaign. The Giants are in position for a wild-card berth (unless the roof caves in on NFC East-leading Dallas) but own a mediocre 5-5 ATS record. However, and you knew that was coming, New York has won its last five contests by a click over four points per game. Now the Giants are expected to cover a 7½-point mark on the road. Yes, that road takes them to Cleveland, I get it. But the Brownies are not as terrible as you think

Cleveland has covered the number only twice in 11 games and those two covers were on the road. But if you have watched this team, you will understand everything and anything that could go against it has. I'm not saying for a moment the Browns are a good team but they are closer to fair than their record indicates. On the flip side, I'm not saying the Giants are a bad team but they are closer to fair than their record indicates.

The home team is simply getting too many points against a club that has been very lucky to win as many as it has. Watch both teams gravitate towards the mean.

NFL Free Pick: Browns +7.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Woodman’s Corner (4-7 ATS)

Philadelphia was a purported "wise guy" play last week, and the Woodman dressed in his finest silk suit, replete with the requisite wide-brimmed fedora and horseshoe pinky ring, to bet the Eagles like he was reading Monday's newspapers. Not so fast goomba, as the Seahawks put a pair in his hat after beating the Eagles 26-15, easily covering the 7-point impost that the NFL oddsmakers were dealing.

This week the Woodman has put away his fancy garments and is back to blue overalls and a pitchfork. The man never met an underdog he didn't like and this week he's backing the LA Rams +7½ at New Orleans.

NFL Free Pick: Rams +7.5Best Line Offered: Heritage

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