NFL Betting: Swinger's Week 11 Picks

Friday, November 18, 2016 5:03 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 18, 2016 5:03 PM UTC

The Swinger is beginning to heat up and put some distance between a pedestrian .500 record and winning big bucks from his NFL picks. Let's check out the Week 11 NFL slate and keep making money!

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Swinger’s Overall 2016 NFL Record: 22-19-1 (After Week 10)

I locked on to the Rams/Jets game last Sunday and called it perfectly. I stated the underdog Rams would win on the road and that it would be a scoring snoozer. Sure enough, LA prevailed with a not-so-riveting 9-6 victory (its second win this year without a TD), and we cashed a double-dipper. That's right, Rams +2 and 'under' 40 was the exacta that the doctor ordered.

Unfortunately, I also hung my hat on Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay. Stupid, stupid, stupid -- as I search for the pointiest corner on the nearest desk on which to slam my head. The enigmatic Cutler did it to me again, but we must consider that he did lose the left side of his line to injury in the first half. Nevertheless, his two picks and two fumbles were instrumental in the Bears 36-10' road shellacking courtesy of the Bucs.

Well, we can't complain with a 2-1 ATS week. Let's stay on course and sweep our NFL picks this week.


Jacksonville Jaguars At Detroit Lions

Let's not overthink this one, dear readers. The Jags are awful and have only one legitimate offensive threat, and his name isn't Blake Bortles. It is, in fact, wideout Allen Robinson. But that's just not enough to get the job done, especially against a Lions offense coming off the bye week and buoyed by a 22-16 overtime win at Minnesota last time out. The Lions' Mathew Stafford should be able to get plenty of time to nail his targets, and that's not a good sign for a Jags' team that has allowed an average of 28 ppg over its past four games.

The favorite has covered the NFL odds in the past five meetings between these teams, while Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its past five home games, and 4-0 SU & ATS over the last four seasons following a bye week.

Conversely, the 2-7 Jags are 3-10-1 ATS after allowing 150 yards passing or less in their previous game (and yet they still lost to the Texans 24-21 last week despite limiting Brock Osweiler to 99 yards but got carved up for 181 yards on the ground). I love the fact that this line is below a touchdown, which makes me want to plunk down a few extra bucks than I normally would.

Free NFL Pick: Lions -6.5Best Line Offered: BookMaker

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers At Kansas City Chiefs

Jameis Winston and the Bucs took no prisoners last week as they throttled the Bears 36-10 and have kept themselves in the hunt for a postseason berth. Tampa Bay is also scoring in bunches recently, averaging more than than 30 points per game over its past four contests.

Everyone loves the Chiefs, and why not? Kansas City has won its last five and rewarded those who have backed them in their NFL picks with a 4-1 ATS mark in them. But the problem is that Alex Smith and the Chiefs have a very controlled and rigid offense that is more cautious about making mistakes than it is about lighting up the scoreboard. In addition, KC star cornerback Marcus Peters is ailing and his status is questionable for this week.

I think the squares will be falling all over each other to bet the Chiefs at Arrowhead, but we will take the former Florida State Heisman winner and his band of Bucs to cover the number here. The Chiefs don't put up a lot of points and have won three of their last four games by six points or less, which is what makes this road dog so very tasty.

NFL Free Pick: Bucs +9Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Baltimore Ravens At Dallas Cowboys

As my Boston friends would say, the Cowboys have been "wicked pissah" this season. But they are coming off a huge (and grueling) 35-30 road win over the Steelers and must brace themselves for a Turkey Day matchup against their NFC East rival Washington Redskins just four days hence. In addition, the Dallas secondary is banged up, while the Ravens' defensive backs are getting healthier.

Did you also know that the Ravens have yet to lose a game by more than eight points this season? They are a pretty decent team but certainly not at the level of their Super Bowl predecessors. Yet the Ravens are good enough for me, especially with the generous head start we are getting from the oddsmakers and considering they are coming off a 10-day respite.

NFL Free Pick: Ravens +7.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Woodman’s Corner (4-6 ATS)

I told you last week the Woodman was due to heat up, and sure enough he clicked with the Cowboys as road dogs to the Steelers in a game that the Boys won outright. This week he returns with another NFC East crew but this one is from the City of Brotherly Love -- talk about an oxymoron! Yes, the Woodman says the Eagles will soar and so will your bankroll as Philly cashes in the role of a road underdog in Seattle.

NFL Free Pick: Eagles +7Best Line Offered: Bovada

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