NFL Betting - Swinger’s Week 15 NFL Picks

Detroit Lions players celebrating

Thursday, December 15, 2016 9:26 PM GMT

There are just three weeks of football left and Swinger is poised to cash in his NFL picks for Week 15. Let’s get to burying our bookmakers!

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Swinger's Overall 2016 NFL Record: 28-25-1 ATS

This season has been a grind to be sure as we find ourselves barely making money entering the home stretch. Last week did us no favors as I eschewed the sides and went with three totals in my NFL picks. That, unfortunately, was not a winning proposition as I barely cashed over in the Pittsburgh/Buffalo tilt and narrowly lost the under in the Vikings/Jaguars contest. The third play, over 51 in the New Orleans/Tampa Bay game, was a complete and utter bust. That Bucs’ defense is for real kids and the Saints offense is clearly sputtering down the stretch. Those teams combined for a paltry 27 points, and that’s what we call a swing and a miss. We wrapped the week with a 1-2 ATS record.

Let’s get back to sides and go with what we know. I see three solid picks on the Week 15 board and I believe the NFL odds are in our favor on all three. The time to sweep the board is now, so let’s go!

 

Detroit Lions vs N.Y. Giants 

Big Blue is overvalued after their stunning win over the seemingly invincible Cowboys last week. But let’s not forget that the Boyz from Dallas have not been themselves recently and the Giants just keep stumbling into getting the right teams at the right time. New York won that game 10-7 but Eli Manning was a mess, tossing what would have been three more interceptions had it not been for a Dallas defense that couldn’t catch the ball.

On the flipside, we have the Detroit Lions whose defense boasts one of the league’s best pair of cornerbacks and whose entire defense is stingier than Scrooge on Christmas Eve. Detroit’s defensive unit has limited their opponents to less than 20 points in all but one game over their last seven contests. Matt Stafford has an injured finger but it’s his middle finger and it shouldn’t preclude him from scoring on a Giants’ defense that has had an insanely easy schedule as of late, save for Pittsburgh to whom they lost 24-14 and a struggling Dallas offense that has seen a marked downturn in efficiency since the middle of the season.

The Giants could also be looking ahead to a divisional tilt with the Eagles next week and their 9-4 record is the biggest illusion in all of the professional football. Detroit may not only cover the number but win this one outright if Stafford is on his game.

 

Free NFL Pick: Detroit +4 ½ 

Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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Miami Dolphins vs N.Y. Jets  

This is a Saturday night game and for those who are loathsome to the opposite sex and whose only reference to the word date is something found in a dessert, squeezing this into your weekend agenda should be no problem. The Dolphins will go with veteran Matt Moore who has thrown a grand total of 16 passes over the last four years – no, not games – years. The Fish have won seven of their last eight but they have had the benefit of playing the following schedule over that time: Steelers (best win of the season back on October 16th), Bills, Jets, Chargers, Rams, 49’ers and Cardinals with a 38-6 loss to the Ravens two weeks ago. Now they start 32-year-old Matt Moore who has spent less time on the field than the cheerleaders, over the past four years.

The Jets don’t inspire me folks but I’ll take a chance on them at home against an underwhelming offense like Miami’s with a quarterback that has more rust than a 56’ Chevy. In addition, the Dolphins have not cracked 100 yards rushing in four games and that’s what they will hang their hats on against a pedestrian Jets’ run-stop unit that ranks 17th in the league. Bryce Petty has got his shot under center for New York and he tossed for 257 yards in New York’s overtime victory over the Niners as three-point road dogs.

These teams met on November 6th in Miami and the Dolphins notched a 27-23 victory over the gritty Jets. I believe New York has gotten better (trust me, losing Fitzpatrick is no loss) while Miami has gotten lucky and is now without their starter Ryan Tannehill. New York is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the AFC East and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games in the month of December. Let’s go with the home dog here.

 

Free NFL Pick: NY Jets +2 (-125) 

Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

I’m not crazy about backing a Brock Osweiler led passing attack, that to be honest is more like a mild affront than attack, but I do love the fact that the Houston Texans should be able to put the clamps down hard on the underwhelming Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Texans and Jags don’t score much but at least I can see the Texans defense putting their offense in prime position for a touchdown or field goal. Jacksonville ranks 27th in both points for and points against while the Texans defense held Andrew Luck and the Colts to just 17 points last week in Houston’s 22-17 victory as 6 ½ point road dogs.

If you like stats then here are a few that will make you like Houston even more. Jacksonville is 1-4 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 1-4 against the spread following a loss, and 1-5 against the spread on grass. Houston on the other hand, is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games and 12-3-2 ATS over their last 17 contests versus the AFC South.

 

Free NFL Pick: Houston -6 

Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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The Woodman’s Corner (6-8 ATS)

We may have all shaken our collective heads when the Woodman picked rotten over heinous last week, the Jets versus the 49’ers respectively, but you can’t argue with the results. New York was a three-point road dog to Colin and his motley crew plying their trade in front of hundreds at Levi’s Stadium but they didn’t need even one of those points to get the job done. Gang Green came away with a meaningless 23-17 victory that is already forgotten by all, except those who bet them…and bet against them.

This week the Woodman is channeling Steve Miller yet again as he hopes to fly like an eagle and cash that ticket. The wise old sage is determined to claw his way back to respectability with Philadelphia hanging and banging with the Ravens in Baltimore.

 

Free NFL Pick: Philadelphia +6 

Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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