Some places have the Green Bay Packers atop their NFL odds list for Super Bowl 50. Other locations prefer the New England Patriots as their Super Bowl favorites.
Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 11: 17-11 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 12-17 Total
In a way, nothing has changed after five weeks of NFL football. The same three teams are at the top of the Super Bowl 50 futures markets, at least at most locations on our NFL odds board for futures and props. The big difference: the Seattle Seahawks. They opened as the 11-2 favorites at Bovada, but after going 2-3 (1-3-1 ATS) to start the 2015 campaign, the Seahawks are a distant third at just about every book, ranging from +690 at Bookmaker to +1150 at Heritage and WagerWeb
Except for at Bovada. At press time, they're still showing the Seahawks as +650 second favorites, but in reality, their futures market is closed for business until some time after the completion of Monday night's Steelers-Chargers game. Expect Seattle to fall into third, or even fourth place, probably by the time you're reading this. It's too early to write off the Seahawks, who could easily be 4-1 after honking a pair of overtime games. But their offensive line? Too problematic for us to recommend Seattle for your NFL picks this February.
Scheme Scheme, Plot Plot
We don't usually recommend chalk when it comes to futures, but it'll be hard to bet against either of the top two favorites on the Super Bowl 50 odds list. The Green Bay Packers (5-0 SU and ATS) and the New England Patriots (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) are fighting it out for the No. 1 spot; some books prefer the Packers, who are available between +300 and +330 (not including Bovada), and others prefer the Patriots, at a range between +275 and +350.
The fact that New England took the bye in Week 4 makes it a bit more difficult to compare the two teams, but if your brain is telling you the Patriots are easily the class of the NFL thus far, the advanced stats at Pro-Football Reference are in your brain's corner. After the results from Week 5, the Pats rank No. 1 overall at +19.2 on the Simple Rating System. Green Bay comes up fifth overall at +8.1 SRS. We'll see what Football Outsiders has to say when the Week 5 DVOA Ratings come out.
Looking for a Super Bowl 50 bargain? You've got two willing dance partners in the Arizona Cardinals (4-1 SU and ATS) and the Atlanta Falcons (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS). The Cardinals are second overall at +14.4 SRS, but you can get them anywhere between +1200 and +1680 at press time. The Falcons, third overall at +10.7 SRS, are even cheaper at between +1400 and +1704. Yay for small markets.
Still not floating your boat? Well, if you're feeling frisky, the New York Jets (3-1 SU and ATS) are quietly going about their business at +7.4 SRS, or sixth overall, and you can grab them between +3500 and +7200 as we go to press. We could be biased about the Jets, mind you, after putting them in our AFC East dual forecast. But maybe Ryan Fitzpatrick will have the last laugh when all is said and done.