NFL Betting: Sunday's Football Picks of the Day

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, September 15, 2013 12:40 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 15, 2013 12:40 PM UTC

The 2nd full week of the NFL is upon us and we have professional betting analysis on a few of these Sunday contests.

Before we get to those games let’s take a quick glance back to the opening week. The favorites went 7-8-1 ATS overall. However, favorites of 6 points or more were a dismal 1-5 ATS. The 16-game card saw an even split on totals with 8-games staying under, and the other 8 going over. There were 7 games that closed at 47.5 or more and 5 of those went over the total.

Tennessee @ Houston 1:00 PM ET

This total qualifies as one of my super systems. Since the start of the 1984 season, any team (Tennessee) with a total of 42.5 to 49.0 who comes off a straight up underdog win, versus an opponent (Houston) that comes off a win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, has seen 54 of those 70 games (77.1%) go under the total. If the contest takes place prior to game 15 of the season then this super system goes to 44 staying under, and 9 going over, and that’s good for an 83% winning clip. One of my favorite clichés is “figures don’t lie and liars don’t figure”. This one fits like a glove.

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NFL Pick: Bet the Tennessee/Houston game UNDER the total of 43 at Ladbrokes

Washington @ Green Bay 1:00 PM ET

The Washington defense isn’t as bad as it looked in the season opener. They just ran into an offense that no team has seen on the NFL level, and is extremely difficult to simulate in practice. Once again the big question mark surrounding the Packers offense is their running game. They did nothing to cure those concerns in their season opening loss to San Francisco. When they did rip off a good run it seemed like they were called for holding each time. It’s obvious that Robert Griffin III was a shell of himself in the season opener due to inactivity. I look for the reigning rookie of the year to shake off the rust and come up with a huge game on Sunday. Facing a suspect Packers defense is just what the doctor ordered.

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NFL Pick: Pick Washington +7 (EV) on the spread over Green Bay at Bet365

Jacksonville @ Oakland 4:25 PM ET

One of the most common adages in sports betting is “don’t ask a bad team to do good things for you”. Well when you have two bad teams, then the process of elimination becomes that barring a push, one of them has to cover. The Raiders have a long history of bankrupting their backers as an NFL odds favorite. Oakland is a dismal 5-20 ATS in their last 25 games when installed as the favorite. The Raiders even went as far as losing 17 of those 25 games outright. When they’re a favorite of 6.0 or less they sink to 3-18 ATS in their last 21 in that role while losing 15 of the 21 outright. Since the start of the 1997 season non-division home favorites of 6.0 or less playing in game 2 of the season, that lost their season opener by 2-points or more, versus an opponent off a loss is 0-11 ATS. In addition the favorite lost 9 of those 11 contests outright. I have nothing good to say about the Jaguars other than we will be saved the agony of squeezing for a team with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. It’s just about beating the number in this one. Hold your nose while watching, because the game as a whole will stink!

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NFL Pick: Take the Jaguars plus the 6 (-115) points over Oakland at Bovada, for your NFL picks.

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