They grow up so fast. After years of making a big mess, the Jacksonville Jaguars are finally gaining traction as a sharp NFL pick – but will it last beyond Sunday?
Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 14: 31-30-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 21-27 Total
Maybe success came too soon for the Jacksonville Jaguars. They were in the AFC Championship Game in just their second season way back in '96, and they made it there again in '99, both under the watchful eye of head coach Tom Coughlin. Once that regime had run its course, Jacksonville got back into the playoffs under Jack Del Rio, but his act wore thin. Then the Jaguars drafted QB Blaine Gabbert.
Ah, nothing like a good laugh to get the weekend started. Jacksonville has been the butt of many a football joke over the past five years, and at 2-6 (4-4 ATS), there's obviously still a lot more work to do to get this program back into playoff contention. But you know things are on the right track when the sharps are willing to bet on you. Our consensus reports at press time show 77 percent of the action is on the Jags as 4.5-point road dogs for Sunday's game (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) against the Baltimore Ravens.
We're definitely on board. Since we last looked at this matchup, the average bet size on Jacksonville has shot up from $50 to $131, while Baltimore's has dipped from $75 to $61. That helps clear up some of the confusion about which side was the sharp side. It's also driven the spread down from Jags +6, so we hope you made your NFL picks early in this case. Usually a good idea.
Not that big money always indicates sharp money. We're still dealing with a relatively small bet size for both teams – not many high rollers involved in this contest. There are a number of games on the Week 10 NFL odds board that feature a plausibly sharp pick getting fairly light action; for example:
New Orleans PK vs. Washington (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
Philadelphia –7 vs. Miami (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
Tampa Bay PK vs. Dallas (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
Okay, we happen to be on all three of these teams here at the ranch, so we might be biased when we call them sharp picks. But the consensus reports do have all three teams posting larger percentages for monies wagered than wagers placed. That's a good sign, even if the high rollers appear disinterested.
We'll take a closer look at this dynamic when we talk about where the “square” money is going this weekend. For now, if you're thinking about laying a few dinar down on a team like the Jags, remember to employ some smart bankroll management. Keep you bet size in line with the very small profit margins these games provide, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.