The Green Bay Packers may be overvalued, but they're the fashionable football pick in early betting for Sunday's game against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.
Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 25: 23-16-1 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 17-27 Total
So much for parity. We're getting close to the halfway point of the 2015 regular season, and there are still five teams with perfect records. Impressive. But some teams are a bit more perfect than others. For example, the Green Bay Packers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) have outscored opponents by a combined 63 points. The Denver Broncos (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS), meanwhile, have a point differential of +37 on the season.
At some point, Green Bay's bubble is going to burst. It might not be this week, though. The Packers will be in Denver for Sunday Night Football (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC), and according to our consensus reports, two-thirds of early bettors are on Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite on the Week 8 NFL odds board. There's only so much the Broncos defense can do to cover for Peyton Manning; if you squint hard enough, you might think you're looking at Tim Tebow.
Price Check on Fish
The New England Patriots (6-0 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) also seem to have run out of moneymaking potential after failing to get paid in back-to-back games. But in something of a surprise, 57 percent of early bettors were on the Pats for Thursday night's game (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS/NFLN) against the visiting Miami Dolphins, who have improved to 3-3 SU and ATS after two blowout wins under interim head coach Dan Campbell.
If that weren't shocking enough, Miami opened as a 10-point underdog in this AFC East battle. What self-respecting sharp passes up a double-digit dog, let alone a divisional dog of +7 or more? Actually, the Dolphins opened at +10 (–135) before moving to +7.5 at the standard –110 vig, and at press time, it's Miami getting a slight lean on our consensus reports.
It doesn't look like the sharps are buying in on the New Orleans Saints just yet, either. New Orleans (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) has beaten the spread in four of its past five games, but it's the New York Giants (4-3 SU and ATS) who were getting unanimous support after opening as 3.5-point road dogs for Sunday's matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX). New York is still pulling in 63-percent consensus at press time after dipping to +3.
The Giants got back on top of the NFC East by beating the Dallas Cowboys (2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) in Matt Cassel's debut, and the sharps have responded by making the Seattle Seahawks (3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) the early NFL pick for Sunday's late matinee (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX) in Arlington. Seattle opened as a 5.5-point chalk and picked up two-thirds of early bettors; at press time, many books have already moved the 'Hawks to –6. That spread could go even higher if DE Greg Hardy gets suspended for arguing with one of his coaches on the sidelines. Why can't we all just get along?