NFL Betting - Sharps Riding Broncos Over Stumbling Jags

Monday, November 28, 2016 8:37 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 28, 2016 8:37 PM UTC

The Denver Broncos didn't beat the NFL odds in Week 12, but that only adds to their betting value this Sunday against the surprisingly awful Jacksonville Jaguars.


Record: 20-15-1 ATS, 4-8 Totals

If you'd asked the Denver Broncos in July whether they'd be happy carrying a 7-4 record (7-4 ATS) into December, I imagine you would have gotten plenty of YES votes. After all, the defending Super Bowl champions have a rookie quarterback in Trevor Siemian, and rookie quarterbacks are always a high-variance gamble. It's paid off so far; the Broncos are third in the AFC West, but they're firmly in Wild Card contention with five games remaining.

Conveniently enough, one of those games is this Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have already clinched their sixth straight losing season at 2-9 SU and 5-6 ATS. The sharps have jumped on Denver as a 4.5-point road chalk on the Week 13 NFL odds board, betting the Broncos at a 2:1 ratio according to our early consensus reports. Who are we to argue? This looks and cooks like a great spot to put some Orange Crush in your NFL picks.

Meet the Bortles!

There's something to be said for buying low on the Jags as a contrarian pick, but in this case, Denver has hidden betting value. The Broncos have a point differential of +47, tops in their division and miles ahead of Jacksonville at –79. It's enough of a gap that FiveThirtyEight have projected Denver to win Sunday's game 79 percent of the time, for an Elo-based point spread of Denver –9.5.

As for Siemian, he's had some growing pains this year, but he's still outperforming Jacksonville counterpart Blake Bortles. Heading into Week 12, Football Outsiders had Siemian ranked No. 25 at his position in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), one spot ahead of Bortles. And just to make life tougher for Bortles this Sunday, both WR Allen Hurns and RB Chris Ivory left last week's 28-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills (–8.5 at home) with hamstring injuries. We'll buy that for a dollar.

Free NFL Pick: Broncos -4.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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