NFL Betting: Sharps Going To Kansas City Vs. Steelers

Jason Lake

Monday, January 9, 2017 8:26 PM UTC

Monday, Jan. 9, 2017 8:26 PM UTC

Does anybody want Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs in their NFL picks? The sharps do. They’re loading up on K.C. for Sunday’s AFC Divisional matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Season Record: 23-24-1 ATS, 4-9 Totals

Once again, the operation was a success but the patient died at the table. We recommended fading the popular Pittsburgh Steelers for their Wild-Card game against the Miami Dolphins and recommended waiting until closer to kick-off for a better price than the +10 the Fins were getting as we went to press. Sure enough, Miami was available at +11 and higher at game time. But the Steelers pulled off one of their best-ever playoff performances and won 30-12.

Good for them. We should appreciate and celebrate quality football, even on days where we don’t get paid. Getting angry at the Steelers for playing well is a recipe for disaster – you don’t want to keep fading them out of spite. But we’re going back to the well for Sunday’s Divisional Round matchup (1:05 p.m. ET, NBC) with the Kansas City Chiefs, and this time it’s because the sharps are unloading on K.C. as 2-point home faves on our NFL odds board. This game opened as a pick ‘em.

Reid About It 

Now that we’re getting into the meat of the playoff schedule, the betting volume has really picked up, giving us enough data to publish an early expanded consensus report. These reports are gold, my friends. They show Pittsburgh (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) with a very slight edge in the number of wagers placed, but it’s the Chiefs (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS) bringing in three-fourths of the amount wagered for an average bet size of $114 compared to just $38 for the Steelers.

These are two closely-matched teams on paper; Kansas City finished the regular season with a +78 point differential, six points better than Pittsburgh. FiveThirtyEight projects the Chiefs at an Elo-based spread of -4, so there’s enough value left on the board at -2 for us to recommend K.C. as a solid NFL pick this week. Go ahead, betting market, keep making fun of Andy Reid’s weight. And did you see Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger in a walking boot after beating the Dolphins? He says it’s not serious, but every bruise counts, just like every half point counts. Shop smart.

NFL Free Pick: Chiefs -2Best Line Offered: Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3134172, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,19,238,93], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here