NFL Betting: Sharps Going Against Bad Teams in Week 14

Jason Lake

Monday, December 5, 2016 9:48 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 5, 2016 9:48 PM UTC

Underdogs are usually the sharpest football picks of the week, but it looks like the sharps are pounding the favorites for Week 14 around the NFL. Are these bad teams really that bad? Let's examine the opening NFL odds. 

Season Record: 21-17-1 ATS, 4-8 Totals

Wiseguys don't always bet on underdogs, but when they do, they usually profit. Week 13 of the 2016 NFL regular season wasn't so regular; the favorites took a 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS record into Monday night's game. That includes the New England Patriots, who beat the Los Angeles Rams (+13 away on the closing line) like a rented mule before avoiding the matador cover in a 26-10 victory. Ah, the Patriots. They do that sometimes.

Maybe it's just the hangover from Week 13, or maybe these would-be contrarian NFL picks are really folding up their tents, but it looks like the sharps are scooping up the chalk in early betting for Week 14. Our consensus reports show massive action on a number of favorites, with a strong emphasis on the Minnesota Vikings in Sunday's matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX) with the horrendous Jacksonville Jaguars. It's fun time, folks. The Vikings are -3 on the NFL odds board at press time with a tiny total of 39.5 points.

The Jagged Edge

Fading the Jaguars (2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS) has been a profitable enterprise this year, particularly during this seven-game losing streak. Jacksonville is just 2-5 ATS since winning back-to-back games in October; we cashed in with last week's sharp pick, the Denver Broncos, who secured a 20-10 win over the Jags as 3.5-point home faves as rookie first-round pick Paxton Lynch filled in for Trevor Siemian at quarterback.

The Vikings (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) are on the skids, too, going 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS since taking their bye week as the NFL's only unbeaten team. But at least they've covered two of their last three games. Minnesota lost a close one to the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night in Week 13, falling 17-15 as 3-point home dogs without head coach Mike Zimmer (eye surgery). He's back at work now. Defense and special teams are keeping the Vikes competitive, and Sam Bradford is performing at league average, according to the efficiency stats at Football Outsiders. Too bad Adrian Peterson isn't around to help, but the Jags aren't very good at stuffing the run, so let's get our Purple on before the spread hits -3.5.

Free NFL Pick: Vikings -3 (-120)Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

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