NFL Betting: Sharps Getting Happy With Giants, Jets

Jets players celebrating

Jason Lake

Saturday, October 22, 2016 5:13 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 22, 2016 5:13 PM UTC

The wiseguys are in a New York state of mind for Week 7. They've got the Giants and the Jets in their NFL picks, and they're making it rain all over the Big Apple.


Record: 12-7-1 ATS, 4-7 Totals

If Geno Smith is the right answer, what on earth is the question? The New York Jets have pulled the plug on starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, sending him to the bench and putting Smith under center for Sunday's game (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) against the visiting Baltimore Ravens. Not only that, our expanded consensus report for Week 7 shows the Jets pulling in 96 percent of the action on this game, from just 34 percent of bettors. The average bet on Gang Green, according to our survey: $1,801.

There's only one team drawing a larger bet size, and we've already identified them: the New York Giants are looking at an average wager of $3,389 for Sunday's matchup in London (9:30 a.m. ET, NFLN) with the Los Angeles Rams. We were more than willing to tag along with the Giants as 2.5-point favorites on the NFL odds board, and as we go to press, you can still get Big Blue at that price. But what about the Jets as 2-point home faves?


The Human Geno Project

Unless you're a total stranger to these parts, you're probably familiar with our ongoing defense of Fitzpatrick. He's been a decent starting quarterback for most of the past nine seasons, spanning five different clubs – six, if you count his early years with the St. Louis Rams. Smith, on the other hand, has struggled since the Jets (1-5 SU and ATS) drafted him in 2013.

This is where having a short memory comes in handy. Fitzpatrick does go through stretches where nothing seems to go right, and this year, he's dead last among qualifying starters on the efficiency charts at Football Outsiders. The bar has been lowered for Smith; he only needs to provide something close to a replacement-level performance for the Jets to see immediate improvement, and that's the level Smith was playing at when he last started on the regular in 2014.

Meanwhile, Joe Flacco is having an awful season for the Ravens (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS). He's No. 27 overall on the efficiency charts, just four spots ahead of Fitzpatrick, and it looks like Flacco is going to play Sunday with a sore right shoulder. So yes, let's put the Jets in our Week 7 NFL picks as a contrarian bet, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.


Free NFL Pick: Jets PK-110Best Line Offered: at Bovada


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