NFL Betting: Sharp Money Abandoning the Patriots in Week 7?

Jason Lake

Monday, October 19, 2015 6:19 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 19, 2015 6:19 PM UTC

The New England Patriots have been a very popular NFL pick thus far, but our consensus reports show all the early action was on the New York Jets for Sunday's matchup.

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 18: 21-14 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 13-23 Total

Good news, folks: Las Vegas is still open for business. Nearly all the money in the known universe was on the New England Patriots (–8 away) for Sunday night's game against the Indianapolis Colts. But the Colts secured the matador cover with a touchdown in the last two minutes, making the final New England 34, Indianapolis 27. We nearly hit the middle here at the ranch, too. Worth a shot.

Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks made even more money for the books by honking another fourth-quarter lead, this time as 7-point home faves versus the Carolina Panthers. Final score: Carolina 27, Seattle 23. How are the sharps responding with their Week 7 NFL picks? According to our very early consensus reports, the Seahawks are still getting plenty of support. The Patriots, not so much. As in zero.


Al Michaels, You're My Hero
That's right, zero. New England opened as a 10.5-point home chalk on the NFL odds board for Sunday's AFC East matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) with the New York Jets, and before you could say “DeflategateDeflategateDeflategateDeflategate” (OVER 2.5), 100 percent of first responders were on the Jets. That support has dipped slightly to 98 percent at press time with New York moving to +10.

As for the Seahawks, they're getting two-thirds of the early support for Thursday night's NFC West tilt (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS/NLFN) with the San Francisco 49ers, who opened as 4.5-point home dogs before moving to +5.5. It's a mystery why Seattle has outscored opponents over the first three quarters this year, only to hand three wins back to the enemy – twice in overtime. Which means it could be just dumb luck. We'll take a closer look at both these matchups later this week.


Birds of a Feather
Elsewhere, it doesn't look like the sharps are quite willing to give up on the Atlanta Falcons just yet. Atlanta fell from the ranks of the undefeated last Thursday, dropping a 31-21 decision to the New Orleans Saints (+3 at home) of all people. But with the Tennessee Titans coming up this Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX), 99 percent of the early action was on the Falcons as 3.5-point road faves. At press time, Atlanta is still pulling in 73 percent support at –4.

It's also a bit too soon to pull the plug on the Arizona Cardinals. Their offense came up dry for the first time all year in a 25-13 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5 at home), but that didn't stop the wiseguys from loading up on Arizona for Monday night's matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) with the wayward Baltimore Ravens. Our consensus reports show 97 percent of early bettors on the Cardinals as 7.5-point home faves, falling to 68 percent at press time. You have to have a short memory in this business – ironically enough.

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