NFL Betting: Seahawks vs. Falcons

Jason Lake

Monday, November 4, 2013 4:40 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 4, 2013 4:40 PM UTC

The Atlanta Falcons have turned into a pretty bad football team. But the Seattle Seahawks just got toasted by the NFL lines after playing one of the worst teams in the NFL. So where do we believe the best value lies between these two teams?

Jason’s record on his final NFL picks for 2013, up to November 2 inclusive:

21-19-1 ATS

1-1 ML (+0.71 units)

4-5 Totals

Oh, Seattle. How I love your food and your music and yes, your underrated weather. But your football team is getting on my nerves. The Seahawks nearly shot themselves in the foot again on Sunday, falling behind 21-0 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+16 away) in the second quarter before coming back to win 27-24 in overtime. That lifts/drops Seattle to 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS on the season. That’s also two straight ATS losses at home. Bleah.

Next up: The Atlanta Falcons, who were grounded 34-10 by the Carolina Panthers (–10 at home) on Sunday, becoming yet another double-digit dog who failed to cash in this year. What’s up with that? At least we won’t have to worry about it in Week 10; our first NFL odds have the Falcons getting six points at home, and although we don’t have enough data as we go to press to form a consensus, the NFL point spread moved to Seattle –6.5 at some online sportsbooks in the moments after the Tampa Bay game.

More Than Rain

Mistakes, Seattle has made a few. Sunday’s game against the Bucs featured two Russell Wilson interceptions, both deep inside enemy territory, and a muffed kick return that led to Tampa Bay’s third touchdown. Granted, Tampa has a very good defense on paper, but we’ve seen the Seahawks do this before. They also had to scramble to beat the Houston Texans (+1 at home) 23-20 in overtime after trailing 20-3 at the half. Then there were those sloppy victories over the Tennessee Titans (+11 away) and the St. Louis Rams (+13 at home). Seattle is now 1-4 ATS in its last five games. Double bleah.

This is a sad state of affairs (at least, from a football betting perspective) for a team that went 11-5 ATS last year. But the Seahawks have finally hit the value wall after toiling away in the relative anonymity of the Pacific Northwest. Few people would look at you funny if you told them Seattle was the second best team in the NFL behind the Denver Broncos, which is how the Football Outsiders efficiency charts looked heading into Week 9. The ‘Hawks are trendy now, and that can’t be good for future business. Just ask the guys from Candlebox.

Atlanta Is Burning

It could be worse. Down in the Dirty South, the Falcons are 2-6 SU and ATS after losing back-to-back road games by at least two touchdowns. QB Matt Ryan, one of the few bright spots on this team, threw three interceptions against the stout Carolina defense. RB Jacquizz Rodgers added a meaningless fumble on the final play of the game, capping a day where he ran for just 19 yards on five carries in support of Steven Jackson (13 carries for 57 yards). So much for the ground game.

It doesn’t help that WR Julio Jones (foot) and WR Roddy White (hamstring) are both out of action, but Atlanta’s real problems are on defense. Without stud LB Sean Weatherspoon (Lisfranc), the Falcons were No. 30 in the league in defensive efficiency going into Week 9, ahead of only Jacksonville and San Diego. Weatherspoon isn’t eligible to come off temporary injured reserve until Week 11.

As bad as things have been for the Falcons, they’re 2-2 SU and ATS at home, where they covered against both St. Louis (+4) and Tampa Bay (+6). And here’s the thing: I haven’t really talked about the Seahawks being without LT Russell Okung (also out until Week 11 at the earliest), and they also lost center Max Unger to a concussion against the Bucs. These things matter. A lot. 

NFL Pick: Take the Falcons +6.5 at Heritage

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