The football odds haven't been kind to the Seattle Seahawks, but they're still sizeable road faves for Thursday night's matchup with the confounding San Francisco 49ers.
Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 18: 21-14 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 13-23 Total
We figured the San Francisco 49ers would be at the bottom of the NFC West standings this year. What we didn't count on was the Seattle Seahawks joining them. After yet another come-from-ahead loss, the Seahawks find themselves at 2-4 (1-4-1 ATS), technically in third place ahead of the 2-4 Niners (3-3 ATS). There isn't enough coffee and/or weed to make Seattle fans feel good about this situation.
And yet the sharps are pounding the Seahawks for the next very special episode of Thursday Night Football (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS/NFLN). Our consensus reports at press time show 64 percent of early bettors on Seattle as a 5.5-point road chalk, up from –4.5 at the open. Most of the books on our NFL odds board at press time have the spread at –6. The total is holding strong at 41.5 points with 63 percent of bettors preferring the OVER.
45 Minutes of Hell
You might remember the Seahawks from their Week 5 collapse against the Cincinnati Bengals, who came back from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat Seattle (+3 away) 27-24 in overtime. Head coach Pete Carroll told The Seattle Times that he was “baffled a little bit” by the loss. It was already the third time the 'Hawks had given up a fourth-quarter lead this season.
Make it four now. On Sunday, Seattle built a nine-point lead on the Carolina Panthers (+7 away) in the final frame, only to allow two 80-yard touchdown drives to lose 27-23. On the season, the 'Hawks have a point differential of +43 during the first three quarters, and –34 in the fourth. Remarkable.
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And possibly just bad luck. Unless everyone in the dressing room is drinking miracle water instead of eating a proper game-day meal, there might not be a rhyme or a reason to these late-game collapses. Feel free to comment below if you have any theories. Yes, Seattle is having trouble against tight ends (Greg Olsen scored the winning touchdown for Carolina), but that shouldn't only manifest itself in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, the Niners have conjured up the same 2-4 record despite owning a point differential of –60 on the season. That's the worst differential in the NFC, and just a shade better than the Jacksonville Jaguars (–63) for last overall. San Francisco beat the Baltimore Ravens 25-20 last week as 2.5-point home dogs, aided in part by a missed Ravens field goal where Justin Tucker slipped on the laughably awful turf at the Field of Jeans. It's like they decided to go cheap and use the old turf at Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia. Anyway, we'll take a closer look at the performance levels of these two teams when we come back for our picks against the spread and total. It won't be pretty.