NFL Betting Report: Public Teams Collide In Conference Championships

Jason Lake

Tuesday, January 17, 2017 2:04 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 17, 2017 2:04 PM UTC

So much for small-market teams. Everyone in action this Sunday is a public darling, but the two road teams should have a little harder time overcoming the NFL odds.

Record: 23-25-1 ATS, 5-9 Totals

One of these things just doesn’t belong here. The final expanded consensus reports for the Divisional Round show heavy action for all four games – except the Seahawks-Falcons tilt, which didn’t even produce the minimum required data. Wow. Looks like everyone was fixated on that Texans-Patriots matchup instead. No surprise, really; Seattle and Atlanta are regional markets for the most part, and night games usually draw more action than day games.

Plus, it was the Patriots. At press time, they’re the most popular betting commodity on Sunday’s NFL odds board. But the larger betting public hasn’t been quite as keen on New England this year, not when compared to the Pittsburgh Steelers. And the Green Bay Packers have been more popular still. Are we in for a repeat of Sunday’s action, where the road teams got most the attention before kick-off?

Air Apparent

Almost certainly in Green Bay’s case. The Falcons (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS) have enthralled fans with their high-octane offense, but nobody can hold a candle to the Packers (12-6 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) and their popularity right now. They even overtook Atlanta on the offensive efficiency charts at Football Outsiders with their performance in the Wild Card round – we’ll see how this week’s charts look once they’re ready.

Sunday’s Steelers-Patriots matchup (6:40 p.m. ET, CBS) is a little harder to figure out. Pittsburgh is ahead of the Pats on the public money charts, but the Steelers (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) have played one more game than New England (15-2 SU, 14-3 ATS), and don’t forget, Tom Brady missed the first four weeks of the regular season. Something about deflated balls.

At the moment, New England is the preferred choice of 54 percent of bettors as a 6-point home fave, collecting two-thirds of the monies wagered. Fading the Patriots in the Conference Round and beyond has been a winning choice for quite a while; instead of waiting for public money to push the spread to –7, let’s jump on the Steelers now before the lines move in the other direction.

Free NFL Pick: Steelers +6 (–105)
Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

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