Each and every week we recap all the NFL games in the context of NFL betting odds: how they performed at the exchange? Who were the winners, public and/or sharp bettors or bookmakers?
Week 8 Recap
At the close of Sunday Night Football between the Eagles and Cowboys – a right thriller, mind –, we emerge with a winning record across the board in all major markets: SU, ATS and Totals. Monday Night Football is yet to be decided between the Vikings and Bears…so the record below will be updated accordingly on Monday Night at the conclusion of the NFC North showdown.
Nikki Adams Game-by-Game SU, ATS & Total Picks Record
Week 8 SU: 8-4-0 (Overall Season Record: 70-48-0)
Week 8 ATS: 8-4-0 (Overall Season Record: 77-40-1)
Week 8 Totals: 8-4-0 (Overall Season Record 57-60-1)
Off to another week of NFL betting. Below we serve up all week 9 games at a glance. For an in-depth NFL betting preview of each and every game and a comprehensive analysis of all the NFL betting markets SU, ATS and Totals click on your game of choice.
Jaguars 22 vs. Titans 36
Opening Line: Titans -3.5, O/U 46.5
Closing Line: Titans -3, O/U 43.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Titans 60%
The AFC South showdown between the Jaguars and Titans was one of eight games on the NFL slate for week 8 that hovered around the key number 3 at the betting exchange; it’s a week of parity in the NFL, if you will offering plenty of value on both sides of the coin.
The AFC South tilt opened with Titans laying -3.5 (-110) or so depending on your choice sportsbook, and the line held true for the better part of the week until Thursday when it whittled down to Titans -3 (+100). Intriguingly, this game saw reverse line movement – i.e. the line moved against the public consensus bet, Titans.
According to SBR Consensus betting polls the Titans had 60% of tickets taken on the game. Yet, despite being the popular week 8 NFL pick in public circles, the line moved against the Titans. We discover that was almost exclusively down to sharp betting on the Jaguars represented by 72.75% of the money wagered and bets that were four times larger on average than on the Titans. Essentially, the public and sharp were at loggerheads in this one. Tale told, the public won – who says the sharps always get it right?
Redskins 27 vs. Bengals 27
Opening Line: Bengals -6
Closing Line: Bengals -3
Closing Consensus Betting: Bengals 58.84%
At closing doors, the Bengals emerged as the top consensus NFL pick in this London matchup with 58.84% of the tickets and, intriguingly, with a whopping 78.94% of the money according to SBR Consensus Betting Polls. The parity in betting (tickets and money) indicates sharps were with the public on this game, a notion underscored by the size of bets coming down the wire (three times the amount wagered on the Redskins). Tale told, both the public and sharps got this game wrong. Well, neither side won as they settled on a thrilling 27-27 tie at Wembley; that’s right, oxymoron fans, it was yet another thrilling tie highlighted by more botched field goals. The second such instance in as many weeks in the NFL. Is it an epidemic? Who knows, but don’t be surprised if Bruce Arians, Pete Carroll and, now, Jay Gruden join up to start a support group for aggrieved head coaches. For our money, we didn’t do too shabbily on this game at all: shading the Redskins at +3 and the OVER 46.5 we got two of the three main week 8 NFL picks on this game right.
Chiefs 30 vs. Colts 14
Opening Line: Chiefs -2.5
Closing Line: Chiefs -3
Closing Consensus Betting: Colts 62.13%
The Kansas City Chiefs closed as -3 road chalk on the NFL odds board, a move that proved to be more than correct. The Chiefs delivered as the road favourites despite consensus betting that tipped the game in favour of the Colts (62.13% of tickets taken). Who else seems to have gotten this game wrong, you may be wondering? Sharps got it wrong as well as they appear to have been with the public here. When all was said and done 77.39% of the money was camped with the Colts. Tale told, both the public and sharps were clearly on the wrong side of the coin for their week 8 NFL picks.
Raiders vs. Bucs
Opening Line: PK
Closing Line: Bucs -1
Closing Consensus Betting: Raiders 58.29%
In another nail-bitter Raiders rewarded their backers in a 30-24 overtime win over the Bucs. To be fair, it was just as close as the NFL odds makers had it with the game closing on either a PK line or with the Bucs laying -1 at home. The public is high on the Raiders and so it proved to be the case as they emerged with 58.29% of tickets taken. Sharp bettors were all over the Bucs though with 77.39% of the money. In short, this was a game in which the public took on the sharps on their week 8 NFL picks and won.
Seahawks 20 vs. Saints 25
Opening Line: Seahawks -3.5
Closing Line: Seahawks -1
Closing Consensus Betting: Saints 58.81%
Saints emerged as the consensus bet in week 8 with 58.81% of tickets taken according to SBR Consensus Betting Polls. Typically, Seattle is a favourite amongst NFL bettors. So the fence jump is a remarkable departure from past NFL betting trends that tip more conspicuously towards the Seahawks in almost every single game. Heck, if last week against a so-called tough Arizona Cardinals the Seahawks emerged as the 55.57% consensus bet on the road one would have expected the Seahawks to have a larger share of bets against the 2-4 SU Saints going into the Superdome. Tale told, the Saints actually proved to be the savvy NFL pick. They upset the Seahawks 25-20 to come through as the +1 closing home underdogs. Intriguingly, sharp bettors were on to the Seahawks therefore at odds with the public with 84.93% of the total amount wagered. Here the public and sharps were at odds and it was win for the former.
Lions 13 vs. Texans 20
Opening Line: Texans -2.5
Closing Line: Texans -1
Closing Consensus Betting: Lions 62.88%
The Detroit Lions have been the ‘vogue’ NFL pick of late and it proved to be the case once again in week 8 as the Lions emerged as the overwhelming public consensus pick with 62.88% of the tickets taken. The intriguing bit is the fact that sharp bettors who have been riding the Lions bandwagon over the last few weeks jumped off in week 8. The Texans sported 65.41% of the total amount wagered, comprised of bets that were five times in excess of those coming down the wire on the Lions. Timing is key and the sharps did get it right.
Jets 31 vs. Browns 28
Opening Line: Jets -3
Closing Line: Jets -2.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Jets 51.17%
The Jets emerged as the slight consensus bet with 51.17% of the tickets taken. Sharp bettors though were down with the Browns to the tune of 57.48% of total dollars wagered, the latter of which was most likely inspired by the news Josh McCown would start. Tale told, it was as close as the NFL odds had it but the Jets still managed to edge the Browns 31-28 and cover as the -2.5 closing road chalk. A rare win for the public in week 8 NFL picks.
Patriots 41 vs. Bills 25
Opening Line: Patriots -5
Closing Line: Patriots -5.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Bills 51.87%
The highly anticipated NFC East rematch proved to be no rematch at all as Tom Brady and the Patriots rode roughshod over the Buffalo Bills in a 41-25 victory. Not surprising, the Patriots emerged as the sharp NFL pick across all sports betting platforms with 66.22% of the money according to contributing SBR Sportsbooks. What was surprising though was the fact that the Bills emerged as the consensus bet when all was said and done with 51.87% of the tickets taken. The public chose the wrong time to jump off the Patriots bandwagon, if you will.
Cardinals 30 vs. Panthers 20
Opening Line: Panthers -2.5
Closing Line: Panthers -2.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Cardinals 62.87%
The Carolina Panthers stopped the rot finally in a 30-20 win over the Arizona Cardinals in week 8, coming through as the -2.5 home chalk for their backers. The public was all over the Cardinals to the tune of 62.87% of tickets taken but sharp bettors were down with the down-on-their-luck Panthers to the tune of 75.12% of the total amount wagered. In a nutshell, it was a win for the sharps and not even a close game as the NFL odds suggested.
Chargers vs. Broncos
Opening Line: Broncos -6.5
Closing Line: Broncos -3.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Broncos 51.33%
The Denver Broncos emerged as the overall public consensus bet with 51.33% of tickets taken. However, the NFL line moved against the Broncos, whittling down from an opening -6.5 to merely -3.5 at closing doors. The reverse line movement was a direct consequence of sharp betting, which bet up the Chargers from +6.5 to +3.5 thanks to 78.77% of the total amount of money wagered going towards San Diego. Indeed, according to SBR Consensus reports five times the amount wagered on the Broncos came down the wire towards the Chargers. Tale told, the public got it right as the Broncos beat the Chargers 27-19.
Packers 32 vs. Falcons 33
Opening Line: Falcons -3
Closing Line: Falcons -3
Closing Consensus Betting: Packers 51.43%
Consensus betting polls reveal the Green Bay Packers closed as the slight public favourite in week 8 NFL picks with 51.43% of tickets taken. What’s more, the Packers had the money too – to the tune of 92.03% of the total amount wagered. What this indicates is public and sharp bettors were in accord. Tale told, the Packers pulled off the cover as the +3 road underdogs but missed the straight up win as Matt Ryan led the Falcons to a last gasp in 33-32 home victory to snatch the straight up win for Atlanta backers.
Eagles 23 vs. Cowboys 29
Opening Line: Cowboys -4.5
Closing Line: Cowboys -5
Closing Consensus Betting: Cowboys 53.94%
A thrilling NFC East showdown concluded in a third overtime in week 8 NFL betting with the Cowboys edging the Eagles 29-23. Indeed, the Cowboys pulled off the comeback in the second half to come through for their backers as the consensus week 8 NFL pick in Sunday Night Football betting. It was close though, closer than the NFL odds had it over the course of the week. Curiously, the sharps were with the Eagles to the tune of 76.93% of the total amount wagered on this game. To be fair, they were looking good through most of the second half until the Cowboys stormed back. In the end, it was a win for the public over the sharps.
Vikings 10 vs. Bears 20
Opening Line: Vikings -4.5
Closing Line: Vikings -5.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Vikings 59.35%
For a second straight week, the Vikings succumbed to a defeat despite being the consensus bet. Last week, the Vikings faltered in Philadelphia. This week, they were stunned by the hapless Chicago Bears in a 20-10 defeat at Soldier Field. In fact, the Bears were the largest underdog in week 8 to win SU never mind just cover. To say few expected such an outcome is an understatement: the public bet up the Vikings from an opening -4.5 to -5.5 on the road with 59.35% of tickets taken. Intriguingly, the money was all in with the Bears to the tune of 70.73% with bets five times larger than those going towards the Vikings. If that’s not an indication of sharp money, what is? All in all, the public and sharps were at odds here and the latter won.