The book is fast closing on week 6 of the NFL season. We review all the results in the context of NFL betting lines and odds and determine how the public and sharps did versus the bookies.
NFL Week 6 Betting Recap
As the results pour in for week 6 NFL betting we review the scores and outcomes in this space and determine how public bettors performed against the bookies with their NFL picks. Through the first ten games the outlook isn’t favourable as just two of ten consensus week 6 NFL picks went the way of the public.
By the afternoon it was clear the books were on the way to one of their best Sunday’s this season as just one of the four late games on the day’s card went the way of public consensus betting, rounding out the day to just three wins for the public to 11 for the books.
Broncos 13 vs. Chargers 21
Opening Line: Broncos -2
Closing Line: Broncos -3
Closing Consensus Bet:Broncos 57.83%
The Denver Broncos emerged as the consensus bet with 57.83% of tickets taken according to SBR Consensus Betting polls. Moreover, they also closed with the larger share of the money wagered, a solid taking of 64.13% that included both public and sharp betting. Indeed, considering the NFL betting trend on this game the line was bet up from Broncos -2 to -3 on the road, an intriguing trend considering the question marks that were plaguing the Broncos at the quarterback position. A lot of it had to do with the lack of conviction bettors had in the Chargers, who were coming off yet another inexplicable loss in week 5 and looked all but down and out on the season. Tale told, the Chargers bounced back and handed the Broncos their second straight loss on the season.
Niners 16 vs. Bills 45
Opening Line: Bills -7
Closing Line: Bills -7.5
Closing Consensus Bet: Niners 61.97%
Colin Kaepernick’s debut didn’t go to plan as the Niners lost 45-16 in Buffalo. As evidenced by SBR Consensus Betting polls, the Niners were one of the top consensus bets of week 6 NFL betting. With 61.97% of the tickets taken the public was all over the Niners as the hefty road underdogs. That overwhelming lean was also supported by 85.74% of the money going towards San Francisco at the exchanges. Tale told, it wasn’t even close as the Bills steamrolled Chip Kelly’s Niners with impunity, even single-handedly cracking the 44 point total for this game.
Eagles 20 vs. Redskins 27
Opening Line: PK
Closing Line: Eagles -3
Closing Consensus Bet: Eagles 64.60%
Oddsmakers rolled out a PK line for this game at early doors in the NFL odds. Probably, to test the waters. It’s not hard to see which way the tide went. The public bet up the Eagles from PK to -3 by closing doors with a whopping 64.60% of tickets taken and 51.61% of the money. What’s most relevant here is, how the money was split: the amount wagered was closer to a 50-50 split compared to the 60-40 split in tickets wagered. What it boils down to is sharps vs. public, a head-to-head the former won as the Redskins emerged 27-20 winners at home.
Browns 26 vs. Titans 28
Opening Line: Titans -6
Closing Line: Titans -7.5
Closing Consensus Bet: Browns 56.92%
The public loves a good underdog doesn’t it? Despite all the negativity surrounding the Browns they invariably hold court with the public from week to week. Yet again, the Browns emerge as the consensus bet with 56.92% of tickets taken. Sharp bettors, however, were all over the Titans to the tune of 88.00% of the money wagered on this game. That’s quite the disparity between public and sharps. Tale told, the Titans came through for straight up bettors but the Browns did cover as the hefty +7.5 underdogs in the narrow 28-26 loss.
Ravens 23 vs. Giants 27
Opening Line Giants -3:
Closing Line: Giants -3.5
Closing Consensus Bet: Ravens 52.70%
The Ravens emerged as the slight favourite amongst public bettors with just 52.70% of tickets taken by closing doors, an edge underscored by 65.04% of the money wagered on this game. To be fair, this was a tough call on week 6 NFL picks and those that watched the game can attest to that: momentum shifts, back-and-forth action, leads traded between the pair this game had a little bit of everything. When all was said and done the Giants emerged as the 27-23 winners pulling off the cover at home only just.
Panthers 38 vs. Saints 41
Opening Line: Panthers -2
Closing Line: Panthers -2.5
Closing Consensus Bet: Panthers 56.95%
Of all the games on the NFL odds board in week 6, the 54 point total trading here was the highest. The game didn’t disappoint, serving up a veritable shootout between Cam Newton and Drew Brees that forced the game into overtime and the Saints eventually won 43-38. Alas, the outcome didn’t fall in line with the public consensus bet – Panthers with 56.95% of tickets taken and a whopping 71.03% of the money. Indeed, both the public and sharps appear to have been of one mind for this NFC South showdown, tipping it towards the Panthers and betting up the line to -2.5 or -3 in some cases. Tale told the outcome reconciled in favour of the bookies.
Jaguars 17 vs. Bears 16
Opening Line: Bears -1.5
Closing Line: Bears -2.5
Closing Consensus Bet: Jaguars 54.47%
The first consensus bet to reconcile in favour of the public proved to be the Jaguars in a 17-16 win over the Bears. It didn’t look to go that way at the start as the Jaguars were held pointless in the first half. Credit to Blake Bortles and the Jags for shaking off the rust and storming back to win in the second half.
Rams 28 vs. Lions 31
Opening Line: Lions -2.5
Closing Line: Lions -3
Closing Consensus Bet: Rams 51.81%
Although the Rams emerged as the top consensus NFL pick in this game, the 51.81% edge is nominal at best. One could argue, it was a 50-50% split amongst bettors. Curiously, the money was heavy with the Lions to the tune of 89.40%. Evidently, the Lions are the vogue NFL pick with sharps these days and it proved the right move as the Lions edged the Rams 31-28 at Ford Field.
Steelers 15 vs. Dolphins 30
Opening Line: Steelers -7
Closing Line: Steelers -7.5
Closing Consensus Bet: Steelers 54.70%
That the Steelers closed as the top consensus week 6 NFL pick in this game isn’t surprising. That they lost 30-15 to a hapless Dolphins side is though. However, it’s worth noting Big Ben was injured during the game and left for the better part of it. The moment he left the field the Dolphins were able to turn things around in their favour. For the public, it’s an unfortunate twist that cost them on their NFL picks. It’s the way the ball rolls sometimes. (FYI: this is the third quarterback after Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo to suffer an injury against the Dolphins. Tyrod Taylor better watch out when the Bills descend on the Dolphins in week 7).
Bengals 17 vs. Patriots 35
Opening Line: Patriots -6.5
Closing Line: Patriots -7.5
Closing Consensus Bet: Patriots 55.97%
It’s common knowledge: the public loves the Patriots. They are one of the most bet teams in the league and this week was no exception as Tom Brady and Company closed as the top consensus NFL pick with 55.97% of the tickets taken. The money was also mostly with the Patriots at 61.60% of the total amount wagered. Tale told it wasn’t even a contest as the Patriots steamrolled the Bengals 35-17 to win straight up and cover as the hefty -7.5 home chalk.
Chiefs 26 vs. Raiders 10
Opening Line: Raiders -2
Closing Line: Chiefs -2
Closing Consensus Bet: Raiders 59.16%
The Kansas City Chiefs logged one in for the sharps as they rocked the Raiders at the Coliseum 26-10 to come through as the -2 road favourites at closing doors. In fact, the NFL line on this matchup jumped fence from an opening line with the Raiders laying -2 at home to a closing line with the Chiefs laying the exact same points. Although the Raiders emerged with the bulk of the betting at 59.16% the money was with the Chiefs to the tune of 85.72%, a happenstance that probably inspired the reverse line movement.
Falcons 24 vs. Seahawks 26
Opening Line: Seahawks -6
Closing Line: Seahawks -7
Closing Consensus Bet: Falcons 58.94%
The Falcons proved to be worth the public favour as the covered in a narrow defeat to Seattle. To be fair, they should have won the game but for some unfortunate calling down the stretch. Curiously, while the Falcons did emerge as the consensus bet with 58.94% of tickets taken sharp money was all over the Seahawks to the tune of 95.21% of the amount wagered. Yikes.
Cowboys 30 vs. Packers 16
Opening Line: Packers -5.5
Closing Line: Packers -5
Closing Consensus Bet: Packers 55.67%
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at Lambeau are a popular bet on any given Sunday. So it proved to be the case when the Packers hosted Dak Prescott and the Cowboys as the Packers closed with 55.67% of tickets taken. The public couldn’t have gotten it more wrong as the Cowboys stunned the Packers 30-16 to send seismic shockwaves through NFL betting markets.
Colts 23 vs. Texans 26
Opening Line: Texans -3.5
Closing Line: Texans -3
Closing Consensus Bet: Colts 54.80%
In one of the most surprising turnarounds on the day to log another one in for the books the Texans came-from-behind to win. Going into the fourth quarter, the Colts had the 23-9 lead and the game looked to be all done and dusted. Nobody in their wildest imaginations could have predicted the complete and utter turnaround at the NRG on Sunday Night Football, let alone bookies. Tale told, the Texans pulled it off to push as the -3 closing home chalk on week 6 NFL picks.