NFL Betting Recap Week 4 – Bengals Bounce Back & Jaguars Finally Win

Nikki Adams

Sunday, October 2, 2016 9:35 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 2, 2016 9:35 PM UTC

Week 4 is underway and we bring you the latest updates and recaps for each and every game with a view towards the NFL betting odds and betting trends.

We review the NFL betting action in week 4 and evaluate how these NFL betting picks performed in the context of consensus betting. As it is, the first nine games in the books provide grim reading for the top consensus picks. From Thursday Night football to the start of Sunday’s mid-afternoon slate consensus picks have gone a measly 1-8 SU. Ouch.

The lone top consensus NFL pick to reconcile favourably were the Raiders in a 28-27 win over the Ravens. Colts, Patriots, Panthers and Lions were amongst the most bet teams in week 4 (over 60% consensus betting) but all emerged losers.

The mid-afternoon and SNF game saw the tables turn for the public as each and every consensus pick came through with both the straight up win and cover. It was a face-saving run down the stretch as public consensus picks eventually finished 6-8 through 14 games.

Just MNF remains to be decided, but no matter which way it falls the reality is that week 4 saw the public get only 40% of the games right. Ouch, again.


Thursday, September 29, 2016Dolphins 7 vs. Bengals 22

Opening Line: Bengals -7, O/U 43.5
Closing Line: Bengals -7.5, O/U 46.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Dolphins 51.10%
It’s been a rough start for the AFC North defending champions Cincinnati Bengals, but on TNF they dug their heels in to emerge with the much-needed win at home and improve to .500. All while NFL betting trends reveal a conspicuous lean towards their opponents. By closing doors, the Dolphins had 51.10% of the tickets taken.

Interestingly, despite this trend, the NFL line on the Bengals moved from -7 to -7.5 at closing doors. A reverse line movement that might be an indication of sharp money going towards Cincy for week 4 picks. As it was, the game wasn’t even close. Save for an inspired Ryan Tannehill touchdown pass on Miami’s first drive, over the rest of the game, the Dolphins were rendered pointless.


Sunday, October 2, 2016Colts 27 vs. Jaguars 30

Opening Line: Jaguars -1, O/U 49.5
Closing Line: Colts -1, O/U 48.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Colts 61.3%
The first London game of the season lived up to the billing and it was as close as the NFL betting lines suggested it might be. Although the Jaguars opened as the nominal “home” favourites – their home away from home – the public bet up to the Colts evidently. By closing doors, the tickets taken on the Colts outweighed those on the Jaguars to the tune of 61.3%. As well, the money was on side. Indeed, the sheer volume of bets on the Colts bet up the line to Colts laying -1 as the away team.

Tale told the Jaguars clung to the three-point lead in the dying minutes to come up with their first win of the season and cover. Those NFL bettors that backed the Jags endured a tense last five minutes of the game, though. When Andrew Luck threw a scintillating touchdown pass to close the gap on the scoreboard (down 30-20) it must have felt like déjà vu – the Jaguars felt cheated in week 1 against the Packers and week 3 against the Ravens, two games they were oh so close to winning only to have the win denied.  


Titans 20 vs. Texans 27

Opening Line: Texans -4.5, O/U 39
Closing Line: Texans -4, O/U 40.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Titans 52.07%
The Titans emerged as the consensus bet when all was said and done with 52.07% of tickets taken by closing doors. Curiously, the money was almost entirely with the Titans too – to the tune of a whopping 87.94% of the money coming down the wire. Evidently, the 27-0 loss to the Patriots in TNF betting last week took the shine off the Texans. Tale told it proved to be an overreaction to what was a rather bizarre week 3 deposit by Brock Osweiler and the Texans as they put paid on their naysayers with a convincing 27-20 win in which they covered the -4 closing line with some to spare.


Browns 20 vs. Redskins 31

Opening Line: Redskins -6.5, O/U 45.5
Closing Line: Redskins -8.5, O/U 48
Closing Consensus Betting: Browns 57.53%
For the fourth straight week, the public pounded the Browns only to come away empty-handed this time. Granted the Browns covered as the double-digit underdogs in week 3 on the road to Miami, but back-to-back road games do pose a risk. The Browns closed with 57.53% of the tickets taken according to SBR Consensus betting polls and a whopping 81.72% of the money coming down the wire. Despite these eye-popping trends, the NFL line moved against the Browns in favour of the Redskins. Tale told the Redskins reeled off a second straight win to improve to .500 before week 5 in the 31-20 win in the nation’s capital.


Seahawks 27 vs. Jets 17

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.5, O/U40.5
Closing Line: Seahawks -1, O/U 40
Closing Consensus Betting: Jets 55.14%
So much for the Jets catching a break with a banged up Seattle Seahawks visiting MetLife in week 4. Once again, the consensus betting pick in this game – the Jets with 55.14% of the tickets taken – failed to deliver for public bettors. And, once again, the overwhelming money went towards the Jets (79.91% of the money by closing doors). Talk about getting it wrong as the Seahawks won 27-17, covering by a full 9 points the closing -1 spread trading on the NFL odds board.


Bills 16 vs. Patriots 0

Opening Line: Patriots -3.5, O/U 43.5
Closing Line: Patriots -3.5, O/U 41
Closing Consensus Betting: Patriots 60.43%
The shocker of the week: the Bills smash the Patriots 16-0 at Foxboro and hand Bill Belichick his first loss of the season. The Patriots emerged as the consensus bet with more than 60% of tickets taken and, importantly, 81.84% of the money. This symmetry between the tickets taken and dollars wagered is understandable seeing as the Patriots defied the NFL odds and naysayers in the first three weeks and many NFL bettors got burned in the process. Alas, Rex Ryan and the Bills had the Patriots’ number.


Panthers 33 vs. Falcons 48

Opening Line: Panthers -3, O/U 46
Closing Line:  Panthers -3, O/U 48.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Panthers 60.81%
From week 1 the public has been high on the Panthers, but, aside from defeating the Niners in week 2 win, the Panthers do appear to be overrated. Indeed, they were in this NFC South showdown as bookies opened with the Panthers laying -3 and closed on the same number. All and sundry appear to have overlooked the conspicuous lack of protection around Super Cam, not to mention severely underrating the Falcons in the process.  Heck, not only did the Panthers have 60.81% of the bets but they also had the bulk of the money (55.31%). Sharp money though did go towards the Falcons late in the day with several sportsbooks recording some large bets on the Falcons as the +3 home underdogs.


Raiders 28 vs. Ravens 27

Opening Line: Ravens -3.5, O/U 45
Closing Line: Ravens -3.5 O/U 45
Closing Consensus Betting: Raiders 59.18%
The Raiders proved the only consensus bet to come through for the public as they squeaked by the Ravens 28-27. Curiously, the money was on the Ravens with 60.39% of total dollars risked on this game. The public represented by the 59.18% of tickets taken must well be chuffed about the result in this game as the Raiders both won SU and covered to improve to 3-1 SU on the season. The question is how long can the Raiders fly by the seat of their pants. Such narrow close wins don’t make for convincing NFL betting trends.

 Lions 14 vs. Bears 17

Opening Line: Lions -1, O/U46
Closing Line: Lions -3.5 O/U 48
Closing Consensus Betting: Lions 62.67%
The Bears finally win a game thanks to the veteran leadership from Brian Hoyer (might this be the end of Jay Cutler?) Few bettors were buying what the Bears were selling, understandably. Chicago sported a 0-3 SU and ATS record going into week 4 NFL betting. Not a ringing endorsement of their NFL odds, tempting though they might have been as home underdogs closing at a whopping +3.5 on the NFL odds board. Tale told the Lions emerged as the consensus bet with 62.67% of tickets taken across contributing sportsbooks according to SBR consensus polls. The money was also with the Lions to the tune of 62.15%. All the good that did as the Lions closed out the early round of Sunday’s NFL betting card with another miss for the public’s top consensus betting NFL picks.


Broncos 27 vs. Bucs 7

Opening Line: Broncos -4, O/U -43
Closing Line: Broncos -3.5, O/U 43
Closing Consensus Betting: Broncos 58.84%
Each and every week you’ll be sure to find NFL betting lines that make you go hmmm…. The Broncos laying just 4 points at open doors and then closing even lower at -3.5 was one such occasion in week 4 NFL betting. Not surprisingly, the Broncos emerged as the consensus bet amongst public bettors with 58.84% of the tickets taken. Curiously, the money was with the Bucs with 62.05% of the total dollars wagered. It appears that sharps were on the Bucs as the home underdogs at the very least to keep it close. Tale told it wasn’t.  Broncos ran off 27-7 winners despite losing Trevor Siemian to injury and battling extreme weather conditions.


Rams 17 vs. Cardinals 13

Opening Line: Cardinals -8, O/U 44
Closing Line: Cardinals -9.5, O/U 43.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Rams 51.7%
After a disastrous morning for NFL bettors with just one consensus NFL picks emerging triumphant, the afternoon brought some cheer as the Rams became the second consensus NFL pick to come through in a 17-13 win in Arizona. As well, the betting on this game seemed to be one-sided with most of the money going towards the Rams (78.93%). To be fair, this market was another such that would make NFL bettors go hmmm. Bookies opened with the Cardinals laying -8 or thereabouts. After the way they were manhandled by Buffalo in week 3 it’s a wonder they opened so heavily fancied.


Saints 35 vs. Chargers 34

Opening Line: Chargers -4, O/U 52
Closing Line: Chargers -4, O/U 54
Closing Consensus Betting: Saints 53.35%
For a third straight game in the mid-afternoon session, the public’s consensus NFL pick delivered. However, only just in a 35-34 win at Qualcomm Stadium. Truth be told, the Saints trailed significantly for the better part of the game but, the dreaded fourth quarter collapse once again proved to be to the Chargers’ detriment as they fritted away the lead and lost. This game saw parity with the Saints emerging as the top consensus pick as well as cornering the bulk of the money (65.87%).


Cowboys 24 vs. Niners 17

Opening Line: Cowboys PK O/U 44
Closing Line: Cowboys -2, O/U 44
Closing Consensus Betting: Cowboys 55.75%
The Dallas Cowboys emerged 24-17 winners at Levi Stadium, capping a mid-afternoon session in which the public saved some face. Consensus NFL picks went 4-0 to improve the record to 5-8 through 13 games. Curiously, the Cowboys didn’t have the money cornered in their camp. Sharps bet the Niners it seems something huge that by closing doors the Niners had 67.54% of the money but just 46.65% of the tickets. The public and sharps were clearly at odds here.


Chiefs 14 vs. Steelers 43

Opening Line: Steelers -4, O/U 48.5
Closing Line: Steelers -3.5, O/U 48.5
Closing Consensus Betting: Steelers 63.94%
A week after the Chiefs smashed the Jets, they get a taste of their own medicine in Pittsburgh. The Steelers dominated the first and second half. Heck, the game appeared to be won in the first half when the Steelers raced off to a 22-0 lead. The win at Heinz closed Sunday on a much better note for the public as the Steelers became the sixth overall consensus NFL pick to come through for their backers. Intriguingly, the public and the sharps were in accord here as not only did the Steelers close with almost 64% of the tickets they also had  83.06% of the money.


*Betting reviews for Monday NFL betting will be updated as results come in…


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